Dave's Sports Views

2007-08-08T20:28:00.000-05:00

I've come Off the DL, with a new blog and a new, befitting name. Check me out at http://offthedl.blogspot.com.

Dave J

2007-04-01T17:12:00.001-05:00

2007 Baseball Predictions

AL East

1) New York – Especially if they can get Clemens at midseason.

2) Boston – Too much reliance on brittle players – Drew, Papelbon, Schilling – and unproven ones – Matsuzaka, Lugo on a contending team

3) Toronto – Still trying to find a way to leapfrog the Big Two

4) Tampa Bay – A good young nucleus but not in this division

5) Baltimore – Not in any division

AL Central

1) Detroit – Feel like a one-year wonder, but the pitching is just too good to pick anyone else

2) Chicago – If they don’t make the playoffs, Ozzie Guillen’s head will explode

3) Minnesota – I’d like Garza, Slowey and Perkins in the rotation rather than Silva, Ponson and Ortiz

4) Cleveland – Not sure why this team is such a chic pick. I don’t see it.

5) Kansas City – Needs to channel the ghost of Buck O’Neil to contend.

AL West

1) Los Angeles – Best pitching in the division if Bartolo Colon comes back healthy, but the lineup is shaky.

2) Texas – Ron Washington makes the difference here.

3) Oakland – Losing Zito, Thomas and Kotsay is too much to overcome.

4) Seattle – Mike Hargrove is first manager fired.

NL East

1) Atlanta – Rebuilt bullpen returns Braves to the top.

2) New York – Could make a late run if Pedro returns in midseason.

3) Philadelphia – Garcia’s poor spring is an ominous sign for a team with high expectations.

4) Florida – Fredi Gonzalez inherits great young talent.

5) Washington – Start thinking about the new stadium in 2009.

NL Central

1) Cincinnati – Everyone has to take a risk, and here’s mine.

2) Milwaukee – Ben Sheets’ health is the key to the season.

3) St. Louis – Are the Cards driving Tony LaRussa to drink?

4) Chicago – Money for Soriano was well spent; money for Lilly and Marquis was wasted.

5) Houston – A team caught in transition shouldn’t have spent $100 million on Carlos Lee.

6) Pittsburgh – The only team that can’t win this division.

NL West

1) Los Angeles – Lineup is weak but the pitching is stellar.

2) San Diego – Greg Maddux tutors Jake Peavy and Chris Young to greatness.

3) San Francisco – The top three teams might have baseball’s three best rotations.

4) Arizona – Love the new red hats, though.

5) Colorado – A team in continual rebuilding mode.

AL MVP – Mark Teixeira – Big Tex keeps Rangers in contention.

AL Cy Young – Johan Santana – He has to be the favorite every year.

AL Rookie of the Year – Delmon Young – Just don’t throw any bats at umpires.

NL MVP – Albert Pujols – See Johan Santana comment above.

NL Cy Young – Jake Peavy – Learning from a master.

NL Rookie of the Year – Kevin Kouzmanoff – Indians should have kept him.

AL Playoffs – Yankees over White Sox, Tigers over Angels; Tigers over Yankees.

NL Playoffs – Dodgers over Reds, Padres over Braves; Dodgers over Padres.

World Series – Dodgers over Tigers.

2007-03-24T15:30:00.000-05:00

Elite Eight Picks

With a few minutes to go before the first game, I can only hope the rest of the weekend's games are as good as the Division II Final (Barton defeating defending champion Winona State at the buzzer) and the recently completed women's game (Rutgers upsetting No. 1 Duke by one).

Ohio State over Memphis: It's time for Greg Oden to help carry his team instead of the other way around. In big games this year, Mike Conley has been the best freshman on the Buckeyes. This is a chance for Oden to shine. Memphis has the quickness to match up with Ohio State but the Tigers have no answer for Oden. The Buckeyes, who have played with a rabbit's foot in their pocket over the past two games, don't let this one go down to the wire.

Kansas over UCLA: It's a hot pick to take the defensive-minded Bruins, but Kansas has guards to handle the UCLA pressure, and athletic wings Brandon Rush and Julian Wright can attack the Bruins' defense much like Florida did in the championship game. Kansas can play a little defense as well, and they'll march on to Atlanta.

Florida over Oregon: While the Gators have needed to work two shake off two pesky squads from Indiana (Purdue and Butler), they are still the best team in the tournament. They will put it all together against a Ducks team that, amazingly, is the lowest remaining seed at No. 9 overall. Not exactly the type of Cinderella we were all expecting.

Georgetown over North Carolina: I'm questioning this pick more and more, but I picked the Hoyas to win it all at the beginning of the tournament, so I need to stick with that. In reality, North Carolina has better guards, including the hiccup-quick Ty Lawson, to disrupt Georgetown and wear them down as the Tar Heels did with USC. While there's no precedent for the chalk all advancing to the Final Four, this could be the year to make history.

It's often said that teams that win the national championship survive a scare early on. If that's the case, all eight teams can consider themselves in the running. While the favorites have largely moved on, they've been tested, and in passing those tests they deserve to be where they are.

Enjoy the games.

DJ

2007-02-01T20:03:00.000-06:00

Super Bowl pick

Chicago vs. Indianapolis -- The more I look at this week's matchup, the more I have a hard time justifying the Colts' status as a seven-point favorite. Much of it probably has to do with the AFC's dominance in recent years, with Indy's victory over New England coming in a game that certainly had the feel of something more than a semifinal round.

But while most coverage of the Bears has focused on the on-again, off-again season of quarterback Rex Grossman, Chicago possesses a deep and talented team and can match up well with the Colts in several areas:
1) The Bears have a pair of talented running backs who can attack Indy's defense. (Did you notice I didn't follow that sentence up with the phrase, "which is soft against the run."?)
2) Chicago has a premier kick returner in Devin Hester, and Colts made New England return man Ellis Hobbs look like the second coming of Billy "White Shoes" Johnson.
3) The Bears have two of the best linebackers in the game, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, each of whom can cover the Colts' tight end Dallas Clark one-on-one. Clark has been Peyton Manning's favorite target through much of the playoffs, particularly late in the game.
4) Indianapolis' cover-two defense can be had in the middle of the field, and the Bears have a great possession receiver in Muhsin Muhammad and a tight end, Desmond Clark, that is also effective on crossing routes.
5) Because of its running game and controlled passing attack (when Grossman is on), Chicago can chew up the clock, which limits Manning's possessions. And that's the best defense against the Colts. While New England moved the ball effectively in the AFC Championship game, they were almost too effective, scoring so quickly that Manning was able to maintain his rhythm when he returned to the field.

So a Bears win wouldn't surprise me at all. Still, I have to go with the Colts. Part of it is just a gut reaction. This seems like Indy's year, just as last year seemed to line up perfectly for Pittsburgh. Even when the Steelers didn't play well in the Super Bowl, they got the breaks when they needed them and Seattle couldn't seem to make a play that would have kept the momentum going. I can see the same thing happening Sunday.

And part of my decision to pick Indy has to do with the quarterbacks. Grossman should be OK. While he was certainly no marksman in the NFC Championship, he made most of the throws he had to make, and he was content to throw the ball away when nothing was there. He didn't force the ball into coverage and he didn't turn it over. I expect a similar performance Sunday.

I expect a great performance from Manning. This is the game he has waited his whole life to play, like Steve Young in Super Bowl XXIX. If he was going to wilt under pressure, it would have come in his last game, with the weight of the home crowd around him and his arch-nemesis on the opposite sideline. Instead, Manning took it to another level. I see a game where Grossman surprises everyone with solid play, but he and his team just can't match Manning, who drives his team to a score nearly every time the Colts have the ball.

Finally, I think this is the game where the Bears really miss Tommie Harris and Mike Brown. Seattle wasn't explosive enough and New Orleans not consistent enough to exploit their absences. Indianapolis will be both. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes can pound the middle of the Bears' defense usually occupied by Harris, and Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Clark can stretch it past the center field usually manned so capably by Brown. Lovie Smith is a great defensive mind, but this one goes to his friend and mentor, Tony Dungy.

Colts 33, Bears 27

DJ

2007-01-18T21:01:00.000-06:00

Conference Championship Picks

A busy week, so I'll make these short and sweet. Last year was the eighth consecutive year in which the conference championship games split, with one home team winning and one visitor winning. Both road teams won in 1998, and both home teams won in 1997. Not sure what that all means, but my picks have the trend continuing.

New Orleans at Chicago -- The Bears' defense isn't the same without Tommie Harris, and Seattle exploited that by using Shaun Alexander to pound the ball straight up the middle. New Orleans has a similar weapon in Deuce McAllister. He wore the Eagles down with his power running and that helped make the sweeps of Reggie Bush and the passing of Drew Brees that much more effective. I think Chicago will be ready for that. The Bears corners can handle the Saints' stretch passing game, and that will allow the linebackers to key on the run. Chicago is one of the few teams that has the speed up front to keep Bush out of the secondary. On offense, Rex Grossman can't let the game get too big for him. He needs to use the dependable Thomas Jones and the resurgent Cedric Benson out of the backfield and take advantage of an older New Orleans secondary. There's certainly a chance that Grossman will completely melt down, but I'm betting that the cold weather disrupts the Saints' offense more than the big stage disrupts Rex. Bears 26, Saints 17

New England at Indianapolis -- Both teams won in unorthodox fashion on the road last week. Indy won for the second consecutive week with a strong defensive performance, to offset another shaky outing from Peyton Manning. Tom Brady was inconsistent and looked rattled at times, but when the Patriots needed a big throw, he provided it. I'm sure the Colts wish they could be facing a team other than their playoff nemesis, but given the choice of playing at home for the chance to go to the Super Bowl or taking to the road, I would imagine they'll take their chances in a loud RCA Dome. They have a few things going for them: their previous losses to the Patriots in the playoffs have been on the road, Indianapolis isn't facing the same high expectations as in past years, and the Colts have Adam Vinatieri on their side this time. Unfortunately, Vinatieri has only been the second-most-valuable Patriot in playoffs past. Brady still plays for New England, and he presents challenges Indy hasn't had to face yet with Trent Green and Steve McNair lined up under the opposing center. The Pats abandoned the run early against San Diego, but against a cover-two defense, you have to stick with a running game, and New England will. That will keep the Colts honest enough for Brady to have a big day. After last week, I can't pick against him. Patriots 34, Colts 31

DJ

2007-01-11T18:26:00.000-06:00

Divisional Playoff picks

After being a dropped Tony Romo hold away from a perfect 4-0 week in the Wild Card round, I'm back for more punishment this week

Indianpolis at Baltimore -- One thing is for sure: The Ravens will have much more variety in their offense than Kansas City displayed last week, when the Chiefs made the Colts defense look like the 1985 Bears. Kansas City was so predictable in running on first and second down that Indianapolis could sell out and stop the run. Brian Billick is a far more creative offensive mind than Herman Edwards, and he'll do things to mix it up on Indy's defense. Peyton Manning struggled last week against the Chiefs, and he faces a far better defense this week. Think about this: Ray Lewis may now be the third-best linebacker on his own team, behind All-Pro Adalius Thomas and the emerging Bart Scott. Manning rarely has two bad games in a row, but a Baltimore defensive touchdown makes the difference here. Ravens 27, Colts 20

Philadelphia at New Orleans -- Who could have imagined when the season started the Saints hosting a second-round playoff game? Who could have imagined seven weeks ago the Eagles playing a second-round playoff game? These are two great stories and two teams that most football fans can't help rooting for. I can't get past the thought of New Orleans coming out tight. The Saints haven't played a meaningful game in three weeks, and this is one place where the boisterous home crowd might actually work against its team and make them a bit too eager. At the beginning of the week, I thought cornerback Lito Sheppard's injury might be the death knell for the Eagles, but if Philadelphia can run the ball like it did late in the year, they'll keep the Saints offense off the field enough to mitigate Sheppard's absence. Eagles 26, Saints 23

Seattle at Chicago -- What a passion play the Bears season has become. Will Rex Grossman get it done? Can the Chicago defense overcome the losses of Tommie Harris and Mike Brown? In all honesty, those things shouldn't matter in this game. The Bears are much better than the Seahawks, who pulled a rabbit's foot out of their pockets last week. Grossman, with a good group of offensive weapons, can pick apart a depleted Seattle secondary, and the Bears have enough talent on defense to exploit a Seahawks offensive line that has also been injury-prone this year. The weather will be cold, the Bears running game will be solid, and the fans can sleep well -- for one week, at least. Bears 27, Seahawks 10

New England at San Diego -- This could very well be the best matchup of the entire playoffs. Everyone wants to focus on the coaches here, with Bill Belichick's record of postseason success and Marty Schottenheimer's history of postseason heartbreak. But let's face it: calling this a matchup of coaches doesn't do justice to the teams they bring in. What we have here is a game between the Patriots, led by the NFL's best quarterback, and the Chargers, led by the league's best running back. Tom Brady has lifted an average offense into one of the league's best, and LaDainian Tomlinson took a team with a first-year quarterback and produced a 14-2 season. Both had a lot of help from their defense along the way. Belichick has made a lot of young quarterbacks look silly in the postseason, and it's likely he'll show Philip Rivers a few things the Chargers signal-caller has never seen. But the only chance of having success that way is by New England stopping Tomlinson. Here they're missing a key component in Rodney Harrison. The safety's injury takes a big bite out of the Patriots' run defense and makes tight end Antonio Gates that much more dangerous. Marty-Ball, which is designed to limit quarterback mistakes by using runs and short passes, might be just the right formula this time. Chargers 28, Patriots 24

2007-01-03T19:55:00.000-06:00

Wild Card picks

It's hard to believe we've reached the end of another NFL season, and a wild one it was. This looks like one of the weakest playoff fields in years, particularly in the NFC. But someone has to win, so let's start the picks.

Kansas City at Indianapolis -- The NFL's worst rush defense faces a superior runner in Larry Johnson, a nightmare matchup for a team that's trying to shed its label as a playoff underachiever. Despite the hand-wringing that must be going on in Indy, sometimes it takes low expectations to get a team to relax and play its game (see: Pittsburgh, 2006). The Colts are at home, and there's clearly nothing wrong with their offense, which is potent with both the run and pass. Trent Green hasn't been the same quarterback since coming back from his nasty concussion. Colts 34, Chiefs 17

Dallas at Seattle -- Bill Parcells looks and sounds like a man who's just waiting for the season to end, but he might have to wait another week. Despite how wretched the Cowboys have looked in the past four weeks, particularly on defense, they face a Seattle team with a depleted secondary. And Tony Romo isn't the kind of quarterback who you can expect to beat with just a pass rush. He's mobile and creative, and he has great targets in Terry Glenn, Jason Witten, and that other guy who tries so hard to stay out of the spotlight, I'm going to respect his wishes by keeping his name off my blog (but if you scroll down to the next post you might get a hint). While Seattle has a reputation of being tough at home, they lost at home in this round to St. Louis two years ago, and they were just 5-3 at Qwest Field this year. Dallas was in synch as recently as four weeks ago, while Seattle hasn't really put it all together yet this year. Cowboys 27, Seahawks 24

New York at New England -- The dream coaching matchup of the playoffs, with the mentor and playoff master Bill Belichick facing protege and this year's regular season wunderkind Eric Mangini. Wesleyan University might never get this kind of mainstream press again. God bless Mangini for getting 10 wins out of a Jets team that people wrote off even before the year began. (Memo to those tabbing Sean Payton as Coach of the Year: Mangini didn't import the likes of Drew Brees and Reggie Bush to upgrade his team, and that's no disrespect meant to Payton) You have to like experience here. The Jets will fight and keep it close, but as long as Tom Brady's wearing a helmet and Belichick a hoodie, their team gets the edge. Patriots 13, Jets 10

New York at Philadelphia -- Like the Cowboys, the Giants have the opportunity to forget the past month and focus anew on the playoffs by going on the road. But this matchup isn't nearly as favorable to them as what the Cowboys face. There's always the chance that Jeff Garcia's miracle ride will come to an abrupt end, but he's not being asked to do all that much to help the Eagles win. The offensive line has become one of the two or three best in football. Brian Westbrook is, if not a classic runner, a fearsome threat out of the backfield. And the defense has come on strong and has the potential to make a game-changing play at any time. Meanwhile, the Giants aren't even in this discussion unless Tiki Barber has a monster game against Washington. But this pick isn't about what the Giants aren't; it's about what the Eagles are. Right now, they're playing like the NFC's most complete team. Eagles 24, Giants 10

2006-10-06T10:55:00.000-05:00

Introducing Little T

In what might be the all-time winner of the "You Can't Make This Up" award, Cowboys receiver Terrell Owens announced that he's starting a line of children's books. Here's the link to the story in The Dallas Morning News.

The main character will be a boy named Little T, who seems like a thinly veiled representation of Owens himself. Here's a guess that Owens doesn't do for parenting what Dr. Benjamin Spock did in the 60s and 70s.

The series' first three titles:
Little T Learns to Share
Little T Learns What Not to Say
Little T Learns to Say I'm Sorry

Herewith some of my suggested upcoming titles:
Little T Learns Pain-Killers and Supplements Don't Mix
Little T Learns to Respect Opposing Team's Logos
Little T Learns to Turn Off His Gay-Dar
Little T Learns to Choose a Competent Publicist

Just when you think you've seen everything.

DJ

2006-05-08T10:19:00.000-05:00

Where has this guy been?

In watching Barry Bonds' press conference following his 713th career home run Sunday night, I began to wonder: Where did Barry Bonds go?

The guy who was peppered by the media in Philadelphia didn't appear to be the same guy who has feuded with reporters, teammates, managers, and fans throughout his major league career.

This guy patiently answered questions ranging from the steroids investigation (he dodged those, but not in a confrontational way) to the impact of potentially passing Babe Ruth to a chat he had with his mother, Pat, which "helped me get my head straight."

At times, Bonds was humorous (asked if he thought of himself as a home run hitter, he said it was hard to avoid when you have 713 home runs) and complimentary (he praised young Phillies hitter Ryan Howard). He also made a strong statement regarding Philadelphia's unforgiving and often abusive fans, saying that many of them had brought their kids to the game, and they'd have to deal with the consequences should their children be so impressionable. (Let's hope Bonds is doing the same thing.)

But while he did get a little testy when reporters tried to slip in steroid questions ("Are we have a baseball discussion or a steroid discussion?"), for the large part, he came across as human and affable. Exhibiting these traits, which Bonds seemingly his misplaced throughout his career, are likely the result of PR advisers trying to help him put on the best face as he approaches Ruth and Hank Aaron. But he showed that he can pull off such an act convincingly. Which leads one to wonder why he couldn't do the same thing in the past.

There's no excusing Bonds' steroid use, and any records he has achieved or will achieve always come with a caveat. But he has to know that maybe the public outcry against him would not be so strong if only he had made some effort to meet people halfway, to show the side of himself that was on display last night. This backlash is something that he brought on himself, in more ways than one.

DJ

2006-05-02T21:12:00.000-05:00

Book review: The Mess at BALCO

Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams' book, "Game of Shadows: Barry Bonds, BALCO and the Steroids Scandal that Rocked Professional Sports," paints a seamy picture of the sports world. Based on their reporting and research of BALCO, the Bay Area company that dealt in the steroid business, Game of Shadows tells of the mixture of a businessman hell-bent on making money and athletes equally intent on success in their sports.

The authors introduce Victor Conte, the founder of BALCO, and tell how he evolved the business from one that dealt in nutritional supplements and pioneered study in determining athletes' mineral deficiencies into a drug racket. They also weave into the story the athletes and the co-conspirators who helped bring Conte his famous clients. Chief among these, obviously, is Barry Bonds and his trainer, Greg Anderson.

The story is engrossing, as the authors present their evidence toward those who have already confessed or failed drug tests (such as Jason Giambi and Tim Montgomery) and those for whom the evidence is purely based on the investigation's findings or on Conte's own admissions (Bonds, Marion Jones).

And the story is much more about the demons within us than about our better angels. Consider all of these entities and their likely legacies as they relate to the BALCO case:

Conte -- Not only is the BALCO founder portrayed as a huckster and a hanger-on, he flaunts much of his malfeasance, including a self-serving interview with 20/20 that led his own attorney to resign because Conte was determined to tell the world his story.
Bonds -- Portrayed as exceptionally vain, motivated by his own insecurity and need for attention. Bonds seemed to play his best, the authors argued, when he felt as if the whole world was against him. Being accused of juicing is probably the best thing that happened to his baseball career, next to the actual juicing, of course.
Sports -- Most, particularly baseball, turned a blind eye to much of the drug abuse, because it would have robbed them of stars and storylines. Bud Selig and Giants owner Peter Magowan come across as particularly spineless. You can count the U.S. Olympic Committee among the guilty, as they railed over the years about doping by athletes from East Germany and Russia while ignoring many of the situations involving their own athletes.
The Government -- Yes, they took the lead on bringing the BALCO case to light, led by agent Jim Novitzky, who personally visited BALCO's offices late at night and picked through their trash looking for evidence. But a cynic can look at the case's ascendance to the Justice Department as one in which a group of baseball fans, including Attorney General John Ashcroft, tried to preserve the sport's sacred records. And when the government had a chance to force the case, by identifying the accused -- putting real names and faces behind the misbehavior and elevating the crisis in sports -- they backed off and worked a plea-bargain deal. As nefarious as Bonds and Conte come across, the person I am most disappointed with in reading the book is Kevin Ryan, the San Francisco-based U.S. Attorney who initiated the plea bargain, likely to help bolster the case for his own ascendance to the federal bench.
The Media -- A classic group of followers. When Mark McGwire was caught with Androstenedione during his record-breaking 70-homer season of 1998, AP reporter Steve Wilstein became a virtual pariah. But aside from the authors, SI's Tom Verducci, and the Boston Herald's Howard Bryant, most reporters were way behind the steroids in baseball story, either out of laziness, ignorance, or misguided sanctity toward the sport. Let's put it this way: Had the likes of Ken Caminiti and Jose Canseco not come clean and defined the widespread drug problems in baseball, we might never have seen Selig take action against steroid and amphetamine abuse.
Fans -- Yep, that's right. We're partly to blame. What do we want from sports? Entertainment and success. We want to enjoy the games, and we want our teams to win. How do they achieve that? Well, we're not quite as demanding about those methods. Fans all over the country loved the McGwire-Sosa duel. Now we're shocked (SHOCKED!) that they might have used steroids to produce it. And we feel -- pardon the pun -- cheated.

Game of Shadows is meaty, concise, compelling and readable. It's not exceptionally written: the reporters write for newspapers and have a bit of trouble with book-length format. Every chapter ends with some sort of a teaser sentence, as if they're begging you to read on, when the material and narrative flow should take care of that. And despite the title and the cover photo, this is not a Bonds book. His motives are addressed, but not detailed, and there's only cursory biographical information. I suppose I should read Jeff Pearlman's new biography of Bonds for more of that, and I will.

But first, I need to take a shower and cleanse myself of the material in Game of Shadows, and maybe first read Clemente, David Maraniss' new biography of a much more admirable sports star.

DJ

2006-05-01T15:05:00.000-05:00

Draft recap

After being out of town for a few days, here are some thoughts on the draft. I'll try not to repeat too much that's already been said in the reams of postmortems.

Good drafts

New York Jets -- They got two of the very best offensive linemen in the first round in D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold and could have corraled a sleeper quarterback in Kellen Clemens in the second round.

San Francisco -- Vernon Davis and Manny Lawson made a great tandem in the first round. Brandon Williams is a versatile player and it will be interesting to see what they do with Michael Robinson.

Denver -- Jay Cutler has to be thrilled to partner with Mike Shanahan. A great move to trade up since it seemed like Denver was a quarterback away from the Super Bowl last year. The Broncos got Javon Walker in a trade and picked up two potential steals late in Elvis Dumervil and Greg Eslinger.

Philadelphia -- Andy Reid loves drafting linemen early, and he picked up Brodrick Bunkley in the first round and Winston Justice (a probable first-round pick if not for off-the-field problems) in the second.

Green Bay/Cleveland -- The Packers and Browns need warm bodies and they pulled off trades to end up with 12 and 10 picks, respectively. And they scored at the top with A.J. Hawk and Kamerion Wimbley.

Bad drafts

Buffalo -- Two first-round picks that were real reaches at their spot, in Donte Whitner and John McCargo.

Washington -- Maybe the Redskins should just sit out the draft every year. Daniel Snyder only seems to be happy if he's throwing around millions at free agents. The 'Skins had one pick before the fifth round.

Miami -- The trend continues for the Dolphins who move picks as if they have bird flu. They got decent talent in Jason Allen and Derek Hagan on the first day, but had only six picks -- half of them in the final round.

New York Giants -- They waited too long to add defensive backs, a big need. They drafted one in the fifth round and one in the seventh.

San Diego -- Antonio Cromartie was a gamble, but probably one worth taking. I don't really get the Charlie Whitehurst pick in the third round as it sends mixed signals to Philip Rivers.

Etc.

Based on my analysis last week of the draft positions that had produced the most talent, things look good for Haloti Ngata, Wimbley, Allen, Cromartie, Davin Joseph and Joseph Addai. The underachieving positions means things don't bode as well for Lawson, Santonio Holmes and Mangold. Not the way I would predict it, as I think Lawson, Holmes and Mangold were all solid picks. The players I'd be most worried about being busts in the first round are Bobby Carpenter, Cromartie, Laurence Maroney, McCargo, and Mathias Kiwanuka.
Pick that everyone's lauding that I don't like -- Maroney. If anyone can keep him straight, it's Bill Belichick, but, while he didn't have any real problems at Minnesota, he often seemed disinterested. Also, he wasn't an every-down back at any point in his career there.
Pick that everyone's questions but I like -- Tamba Hali to Kansas City. I always have a bias toward players that make plays in big games. Hali was a fierce player last year and he has the personal history that leads me to believe he's never going to take the game for granted. Maybe another Neil Smith in the making in K.C.
The quarterback situation: Vince Young to Tennessee was a bit of surprise, especially with Steve McNair on the outs. Young could use a veteran who also likes to run as a mentor for a year or two, but Norm Chow should be able to devise an offense that plays to Young's strengths. Matt Leinart walks into a wonderful situation in Arizona, with no pressure to take the helm this year, three terrific offensive weapons around him and a good offensive mind in Denny Green. Cutler, as discussed earlier, has to be pinching himself. He probably couldn't walk into a better situation, and could have the same fate as Ben Roethlisberger, the 11th pick two years ago.
As for the top pick, I was stunned when I woke up Saturday and heard that the Texans had reached a deal to draft Mario Williams. Even though they have more needs than another running back, Bush is hard to pass up and, as Tom Jackson nailed on draft day, Williams' career will always be viewed side-by-side with Bush's to determine if Houston made the right pick. This is one of the gutsiest moves I've seen a team make at the top of the draft; whether it was the smartest remains to be seen. For Bush, it could be something that motivates him even more toward greatness. No. 1 overall running backs in the past 30 years have had injury-plagued careers, while Tony Dorsett, Eric Dickerson and Marshall Faulk were all drafted No. 2. (So was Blair Thomas.) My bet is that Bush becomes an instant star, and he sounds genuinely excited to play a role off the field in New Orleans, too.

2006-04-28T09:13:00.000-05:00

Thanks, Keith Jackson

I grew up watching college football and listening to Keith Jackson and Frank Broyles -- possibly the best announcing tandem I've ever heard. And I'm glad that I was able to hear him for many years narrate college football games from places ranging from Auburn to Ann Arbor.

I'll always remember the expressions he came up with, seemingly on a whim, that really didn't make sense, but when translated to the game, made perfect sense.

Some of my favorites:

Once when a wide receiver got nailed by a defensive back going over the middle, Jackson said, "That'll make him a little shy the next time he goes to the cereal bowl."
About a punt returner who tried to spin away from the defense and was quickly snowed under, "You can't be toe dancin' or they'll put you in a tutu."
Commenting on one of the great Wisconsin offensive lines of the Barry Alvarez era, "If you're facin' Wisconsin, you bring yourselves a picnic lunch because you'll be there all afternoon."
When the Minnesota-Michigan (aka, the Little Brown Jug game) flashed across the screen, Jackson mused, "There's nothin' like a little brown jug on a cold winter's night in Michigan," then pausing, "or Minnesota."
And by far my favorite was when a Kansas State score flashed across, Jackson asked broadcast partner Bob Griese if he'd ever been to Manhattan, Kansas. When Griese said no, Jackson replied, "Well, if you ever go, you better put the rocks in your pocket because the wind'll be a blowin'."

Whatever those sayings really mean, they were classic Jackson -- the country boy from Georgia with the unforgettable voice. Unlike Dan Rather, whose bizarre expressions seemed to almost mock his newsreading, Jackson's sayings always fit into the flow of the game. After all, it was about college football, where traditions mean more than in any other sport.

In more recent years, Jackson's quality had slipped. The 2003 Fiesta Bowl between Miami and Ohio State was a terrific game, but Jackson made numerous errors in identifying players and spotting the ball. But he recovered nicely and called a great game in the Rose Bowl this year, blending right in with the quality of the game.

I remember thinking that I hoped he would retire now, as that game would be the perfect one to remember him by. I'm glad he has decided to do so, but I'll still miss him. That's why we have ESPN Classic.

2006-04-26T20:33:00.000-05:00

Best and Worst in the First Round

It won’t be a surprise to see which teams have been the best and worst in making first-round draft picks (1995-2005). Each team, save one, listed in the “best” group either won a Super Bowl or led its conference in wins at least once during the period. The “worst” teams have been some of the weakest teams in recent memory, and only one got to a Super Bowl during the period.

The first round is both overrated and underrated in the draft. True, a team’s success often can hinge on finding players late in the draft – Terrell Davis and Tom Brady were both sixth-rounders and can honestly say they’re the reason their teams won a combined five Super Bowls. But first-rounders are the guys you have to pay big money. If you pick well, they’ll pay for themselves. If you pick poorly, even with the ability to release players quickly, you’re going to be on the hook for them for at least a while.

And teams will do anything to prove they didn’t make a big mistake with a high pick, so they’ll likely hang on to a first-rounder longer than necessary, often in vain. Tying up salary in a player who doesn’t pan out is the surest path to mediocrity in the NFL. Here are the teams that have done the best and worst with what they’ve had to work with in the first round.

Best First-Round Drafters

Baltimore – Ray Lewis, Peter Boulware, Duane Starks and Chris McAlister came in consecutive first rounds and formed a nucleus for one of the best defenses in NFL history. They’ve also picked up Jonathan Ogden, Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs. If Kyle Boller can turn it around, they might have the nucleus of another Super Bowl team.

Indianapolis – A virtual Pro Bowl team can be made from their first-round selections: Peyton Manning at QB, Edgerrin James at RB, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne at WR, Dallas Clark at TE, Tarik Glenn at OT, and Dwight Freeney at DE. And until James left for Arizona a month ago, each one was still with the Colts. Nevertheless, the abundance of offensive talent reflects the team’s neglect of defense, which is why they haven’t won a championship.

Seattle – The Seahawks drafted many of the key cogs in their Super Bowl team in the first round: Walter Jones, Shaun Alexander, Steve Hutchinson, Jerramy Stevens, Marcus Trufant and Marcus Tubbs. Two of their biggest busts – Chris McIntosh and Koren Robinson – came in years when they had two first-round picks, and they got Alexander and Hutchinson with the others. They also drafted Joey Galloway in 1995 and Pete Kendall in 1996.

New York Jets– The Jets may be the only team to not have a legendary bust during this period. Check out this group: Kyle Brady, Hugh Douglas, Keyshawn Johnson, James Farrior, Shaun Ellis, John Abraham, Chad Pennington, Anthony Becht, Santana Moss, Bryan Thomas, Dewayne Robertson and Jonathan Vilma. Their faults are taking some of these players a little too high (Brady, Johnson, Robertson) and letting a few (Douglas, Farrior, Moss) get away.

Jacksonville – They nearly got to the Super Bowl with Tony Boselli, James Stewart, Kevin Hardy, Fred Taylor and Donovan Darius. They went 12-4 last year with Taylor, Darius, Marcus Stroud, John Henderson, and Byron Leftwich. Time will tell about 2004 and 2005 draftees Reggie Williams and Matt Jones.

Pittsburgh – A team that has drafted low in most first rounds but has landed Mark Bruener, Alan Faneca, Casey Hampton, Kendall Simmons, Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller. And then there was that quarterback they took with the 11^th pick in 2004. If only the Steelers would stay away from wide receivers (Troy Edwards in 1999, Plaxico Burress in 2000).

Tampa Bay – A franchise that once made a laughingstock of the draft has actually righted itself nicely in the past 10 years, getting Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks in the same first round, then picking up Warrick Dunn and Anthony McFarland in later drafts. They also scored Rookie of the Year Cadillac Williams in the first round last year.

Denver – They haven’t been perfect (Marcus Nash, Willie Middlebrooks) and often have drafted near the bottom of the first round, but all three linebackers from last season (John Mobley, Al Wilson and D.J. Williams) were first-rounders, as well as offensive starters Ashley Lelie and George Foster.

Worst First-Round Drafters

Cleveland – They had the No. 1 pick in back-to-back years and misfired bigtime on both – Tim Couch and Courtney Brown. Then there’s Gerard Warren, William Green and Kellen Winslow. All of these have come since 1999, which explains why Romeo Crennel has his work cut out for him.

Miami – The Dolphins haven’t had many first-rounders (only seven in 11 years) and used four of them on Billy Milner, Yatil Green, John Avery and Jamar Fletcher. Daryl Gardener was nothing special and Vernon Carey is just becoming a starter. There’s hope for Ronnie Brown to start a new era.

Chicago – They’ve improved in recent years, if Rex Grossman can stay healthy. But that doesn’t undo some legendary misses, including Rashaan Salaam, Curtis Enis, Cade McNown, David Terrell and Marc Colombo. Brian Urlacher is clearly the gem in this group.

Arizona – Some memorable busts, including Tom Knight, Andre Wadsworth, Wendell Bryant and Bryant Johnson. The jury is still out on Antrel Rolle. Simeon Rice and Thomas Jones have done better elsewhere. Leonard Davis hasn’t lived up to a No. 2 pick.

San Francisco – Aside from Julian Peterson in 2000, you're looking at the likes of J.J. Stokes, R.W. McQuarters, Reggie McGrew, Ahmed Plummer, Andre Carter, Mike Rumph and Rashaun Woods. Let's hope for the Niners sake that Alex Smith pans out.

Oakland – The Raiders’ sin has often been to reach for players too high, such as Rickey Dudley and Sebastian Janikowski. There was the late Darrell Russell at No. 2 in 1997 and forgettable first-rounders in Napoleon Kaufman, Matt Stinchcomb, Phillip Buchanon and Nnamdi Asomugha. One exception: 1998, when the Raiders drafted Charles Woodson and Mo Collins.

Detroit – Oh, those receivers. Roy Williams has been OK. Mike Williams was a nonfactor last year. Charles Rogers has been injured. Then you have the quarterback who was trying to get them the ball, Joey Harrington (No. 3 in 2002). Aaron Gibson was a big bust, in more ways than one. Terry Fair was fair at best and Bryant Westbrook wasn’t much better. We’ll let them off the hook for Reggie Brown, whose career was cut short by a neck injury.

Cincinnati – If this study went back further, the Bengals might be the runaway winners, er, losers, thanks to Alfred Williams, David Klingler, and Dan Wilkinson, among others. But here the Bengals only have to pay for Ki-Jana Carter, Akili Smith, and Peter Warrick, and they’ve balanced it somewhat with Willie Anderson, Takeo Spikes, Levi Jones and Carson Palmer.

2006-04-25T20:11:00.000-05:00

Drafting by the numbers

The NFL Draft is four days away, and everyone is busy with their mock drafts. This prompted me to look back at the first rounds of years past and see what number pick in the first round has produced the worthiest crop of players, relative of course to where they were picked. In other words, a No. 25 pick who becomes a regular All-Pro is better value than someone picked No. 1 who goes on to similar honors. I went through the drafts since 1995, which was the first year in which at least 30 players were drafted in Round 1.

#1 overall pick
Best picks: Orlando Pace, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer
Worst picks: Ki-Jana Carter, Tim Couch, Courtney Brown

#2 overall pick
Best picks: Tony Boselli, Donovan McNabb, Julius Peppers
Worst picks: Darrell Russell, Ryan Leaf, Charles Rogers

#3 overall pick
Best picks: Steve McNair, Simeon Rice, Larry Fitzgerald
Worst picks: Andre Wadsworth, Akili Smith, Gerard Warren, Joey Harrington

#4 overall pick
Best picks: Jonathan Ogden, Charles Woodson, Edgerrin James
Worst picks: Justin Smith, Mike Williams

#5 overall pick
Best picks: Jamal Lewis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Sean Taylor
Worst picks: Cedric Jones, Curtis Enis, Quentin Jammer

#6 overall pick
Best picks: Walter Jones, Grant Wistrom, Torry Holt, Richard Seymour
Worst picks: Lawrence Phillips, Ryan Sims, Kellen Winslow, Pacman Jones

#7 overall pick
Best picks: Terry Glenn, Champ Bailey, Byron Leftwich
Worst picks: Mike Mamula, Andre Carter, Troy Williamson

#8 overall pick
Best picks: Joey Galloway, James Farrior, Roy Williams (Dallas S), Jordan Gross
Worst picks: Tim Biakabutuka, David Terrell

#9 overall pick
Best picks: Fred Taylor, Brian Urlacher, Kevin Williams
Worst picks: Tommy Knight, Koren Robinson

#10 overall pick
Best picks: Willie Anderson, Chris McAlister
Worst picks: Travis Taylor, Jamal Reynolds

#11 overall pick
Best picks: Tra Thomas, Daunte Culpepper, Dwight Freeney, Ben Roethlisberger
Worst picks: Derrick Alexander (Minnesota DE), Michael Booker, Ron Dayne

#12 overall pick
Best picks: Warren Sapp, Warrick Dunn, Keith Brooking, Shaun Ellis, Jonathan Vilma, Shawne Merriman
Worst picks: Cade McNown, Damione Lewis, Wendell Bryant

#13 overall pick
Best picks: Tony Gonzalez, Takeo Spikes, John Abraham
Worst pick: Troy Edwards

#14 overall pick
Best picks: Eddie George, Bubba Franks
Worst picks: Jason Peter, Michael Haynes

#15 overall pick
Best picks: John Mobley, Anthony McFarland
Worst picks: Yatil Green, Rod Gardner, Jerome McDougle

#16 overall pick
Best picks: Hugh Douglas, Kevin Dyson, Jevon Kearse, Julian Peterson, Santana Moss, Troy Polamalu
Worst picks: Duane Clemons, Reidel Anthony, William Green

#17 overall pick
Best picks: Brian Simmons, Steve Hutchinson, D.J. Williams
Worst picks: Tyrone Wheatley, Sebastian Janikowski, Philip Buchanon

#18 overall pick
Best pick: Chad Pennington
Worst picks: Napoleon Kaufman, Robert Edwards, Calvin Pace

#19 overall pick
Best picks: Marvin Harrison, Tarik Glenn, Shaun Alexander, Casey Hampton
Worst pick: James Stewart, Kyle Boller

#20 overall pick
Best picks: Javon Walker, Marcus Spears
Worst picks: Dwayne Rudd, Terry Fair, Ebenezer Ekuban

#21 overall pick
Best picks: Randy Moss, Nate Clements,
Worst picks: Rashaan Salaam, Sylvester Morris

#22 overall pick
Best picks: Tyrone Poole, Bryan Thomas
Worst picks: Marcus Jones, Lamar King, Chris McIntosh

#23 overall pick
Best picks: Ty Law, Jeff Hartings, Antoine Winfield, Deuce McAllister
Worst picks: Rashard Anderson

#24 overall pick
Best picks: Eric Moulds, Ed Reed
Worst picks: Reggie McGrew, Willie Middlebrooks

#25 overall pick
Best picks: Donovan Darius, Chris Hovan
Worst picks: Billy Milner, Jon Harris, Antuan Edwards, Freddie Mitchell

#26 overall pick
Best picks: Ray Lewis, Alan Faneca
Worst picks: Jim Druckenmiller, Erik Flowers, Jamar Fletcher

#27 overall pick
Best pick: Larry Johnson
Worst picks: John Michels, Rae Carruth, Mike Rumph

#28 overall pick
Best picks: Derrick Brooks, Trevor Pryce, Chris Gamble
Worst picks: Andy Katzenmoyer

#29 overall pick
Best pick: Ryan Pickett
Worst picks: Jamain Stephens, John Avery, Dimitrius Underwood, R. Jay Soward

#30 overall pick
Best picks: Keith Bulluck, Reggie Wayne, Kevin Jones, Heath Miller
Worst picks: Craig Powell, Marcus Nash

So where have been the best and worst for the value?
Looking deep in the draft, #19 looks especially fruitful with Alexander and Harrison, two perennial MVP candidates. #16 and #23 have produced some solid players and few outright busts. And #30 has been promising in recent years with Wayne, Jones and Miller. On the flip side, picks 22, 25 and 29 haven't produced a real gem and have had their share of busts.

Near the top, it's more of a mixed bag. For every truly great player there is an equally big bust, with picks 12 and 13 having the best overall performance. Nothing in the top 10 has been especially fertile.

That speaks to two things: 1) The top 10 often includes several "workout warriors," who put on a great show at the scouting combines but don't have the ability to translate skills to the field; and 2) Teams have reached for need high in the draft, particularly when there are a multitude of good players at one position. That has been proven with the likes of Tom Knight, Travis Taylor, Troy Edwards and Jamal Reynolds, all of whom were in a pack of several players at the same position drafted high.

We'll see what happens this year.

DJ

2006-04-25T11:24:00.000-05:00

Best and worst mascots

Sports Illustrated recently posted their list of the 10 worst mascots in college sports. I have to agree with many of them, such as that ugly Stanford tree and the shock of wheat that Wichita State uses (boy, THAT'S intimidating).

Here are my favorite college mascots (not including live animals):
1) The St. Joe's Hawk -- That thing just keeps flapping its wings, so how can you not keep cheering?
2) Big Red, the Western Kentucky mascot -- For the wonder of trying to figure out what that thing really is.
3) Bucky Badger -- The toughest-looking rodent in the Midwest.
4) Albert the Gator -- We have to find room for a mascot that's done time on the SportsCenter commercials.
5) Brutus the Buckeye -- Extra points for making a nut into a cool mascot.

DJ

2006-04-20T19:10:00.000-05:00

Can a QB fall again?

Before the Super Bowl, I wrote a post about the "fall" of Ben Roethlisberger to the Steelers at the No. 11 spot in the 2004 draft. Two years later, Roethlisberger helped Pittsburgh win the Super Bowl, while most of the teams that picked above the Steelers hadn't improved much.

The point was that, in drafting a quarterback with a high first-round pick, and committing the money that the position and high draft status demand, a team that already has a young quarterback in place is hesitant to take another. Plus, everyone remembers Rick Mirer, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch and Akili Smith, among others, and knows that they were all drafted within one place of Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, or Donovan McNabb. The downside of taking the wrong guy is immense.

Pittsburgh got lucky that two other highly rated quarterbacks (Eli Manning and Philip Rivers) were rated ahead of Big Ben on the board, and only two other teams were ready to take the risk of drafting a quarterback high. It wasn't the first time something like that had happened. In 1983, the Dolphins watched Dan Marino fall to them at the 27th pick, after five other quarterbacks had gone before him. One can say that Aaron Rodgers' fall to the Packers at the 24th pick last year was even more dramatic, and reminiscent of the same trend. But until we see what Rodgers can do, we can't know if that will pay off for Green Bay.

This year the draft, like in 2004, features three quarterbacks jockeying for position high in the first round -- Matt Leinart, considered the safest and most pro-ready pick of the three; Jay Cutler, a scout's darling who excelled in pre-draft workouts; and Vince Young, who made everyone's mouth drop in the Rose Bowl, went through every critic's wringer, and now seems to have comfortably settled in as a guy who needs some work but has too much upside to pass up.

Can one of these three fall this year? Let's look at the draft order and what teams might do. I'm going to stretch the scenario a little bit, but hear me out:

1) Houston -- The Texans will take Reggie Bush if they keep the pick. But if some team (the Jets?) covets Bush, they might be able to put together a package that provokes the Texans to trade down. Houston has a solid running back in Domanick Davis, and while Bush has greatness written all over him, running backs have among the shortest shelf lives in the league. The Texans desperately need help at more positions than quarterback and running back. Regardless, they're not taking a quarterback, and it's doubtful anyone would trade up to No. 1 and take someone other than Bush.
2) New Orleans -- They signed Drew Brees to a huge contract. They will either trade down or keep the pick. If they keep it, they're not taking a quarterback. If they trade it, likely a team will be drafting one of the Big Three. But, for argument's sake, let's say the Saints keep the pick and take someone like Mario Williams.
3) Tennessee -- The Titans probably will take a quarterback. Steve McNair is persona non grata at the team's practice facility, and Billy Volek isn't a long-term answer. A reunion between Leinart and Norm Chow is a virtual certainty if the USC quarterback is available. So, in this scenario, let's say one of the three quarterbacks is off the board.
4) N.Y. Jets -- Again, stay with me on this: Let's say the Jets trade up and take Bush. Houston moves down and they're probably taking D'Brickashaw Ferguson. If they don't, David Carr will officially sue the franchise for criminal negligence. If the Jets stayed at the fourth pick, a second quarterback would probably go. Again, I'm going to stretch this and say the Jets move up, Houston takes Ferguson, and two quarterbacks are still left.
5) Green Bay -- Brett Favre might or might not be back. He might or might not have lunch tomorrow either, and I sure hope he calls a press conference to tell us his decision. Regardless, the Packers now have Rodgers pegged to be their quarterback of the future, and they need help at other positions more than they need another quarterback controversy.
6) San Francisco -- Alex Smith looked lost at times as a rookie, but he was the No. 1 overall pick last year. So the Niners, who were so many levels of bad last year, have to look at other positions.
7) Oakland -- The Raiders' nature would be to take a guy like Young, though they just signed Aaron Brooks in the offseason. Al Davis loves to do things people don't expect, so could it be possible that he passes on Young and takes a player like Young's college teammate, the hard-hitting safety Michael Huff -- who fills a greater need for Oakland. Again, pushing the envelope, I'll play this out that the Raiders do so and leave two quarterbacks on the board.
8) Buffalo -- J.P. Losman is too young to give up on, having gone late in the first round in 2004. The Bills have bigger needs, like a long-term stadium deal.
9) Detroit -- Matt Millen has needed a quarterback for so long, but instead waited out Joey Harrington. Now he has signed Jon Kitna and Josh McCown, so it's hard to believe he'll cloud the issue with another quarterback. The long treadmill ride continues for Lions fans.
10) Arizona -- The Cardinals have Kurt Warner, who will likely be the starter this year as the team tries to make a run at the playoffs. Arizona means business, signing Edgerrin James in the offseason. Denny Green has always been one to take the best player available, and if both Cutler and Young are still here, he'll be hard-pressed not to take one. I'll say that he does, and this will help cover me if Oakland takes a quarterback and the Cardinals pass. Two off the board, one to go.
11) St. Louis -- The 11th pick, just where Roethlisberger went. St. Louis has a decent, but erratic and injury-prone, starting quarterback in Marc Bulger. They have a new coach in Scott Linehan who made Daunte Culpepper look great in Minnesota and Gus Frerotte credible in Miami. While the Rams have other needs, it's doubtful that Linehan would pass up a chance to draft the team's quarterback of the future. A combination of Cutler and Linehan (if Oakland took Young, for example) would give Rams fans visions of the Greatest Show on Turf again.

So I'll predict all three quarterbacks are off the board by pick #11. It's conceivable, however, that one could still be left at this point. In that case ...
12) Cleveland -- Not taking a quarterback -- Charlie Frye emerged last year and coach Romeo Crennel is a defense-minded guy.
13) Baltimore -- As long as Brian Billick still has faith in Kyle Boller, he'll keep giving him chances. They're not taking a quarterback.
14) Philadelphia -- Donovan McNabb will be healthy, and the Eagles have far greater needs.
15) Denver -- Like Linehan, Mike Shanahan would love a chance to develop a young quarterback, but my guess is that player would probably come later in the draft. Jake Plummer is likely the starter again.
16) Miami -- The Dolphins just traded for Culpepper. They're out of the quarterback picture.
17) Minnesota -- I can't see one of the top three quarterbacks falling past here. Minnesota is counting on Brad Johnson, who will be 38 in September, for this year. They need someone for the long term. If either Cutler or Young is there, Minnesota probably has to take him and keep him off Lake Minnetonka.

The draft is the ultimate gamble, as often is the case in gambling, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. We'll see if any of these quarterbacks turns out to be another Roethlisberger -- or another Mirer or Couch.

DJ

2006-04-18T19:43:00.000-05:00

Today's edition of the police blotter

It's a busy day in the hard news world that is sports:

Two Duke University lacrosse players were charged with first-degree rape, sexual offense and kidnapping in an incident that allegedly occurred at an off-campus party on March 13. The two players are free on bond as their attorneys rail at the local authorities and proclaim their clients' innocence.
Stan Conte, athletic trainer for the San Francisco Giants, was subpoenaed to appear before a grand jury investigating whether Barry Bonds lied about his possible role during the BALCO steroids investigation.
Washington Nationals general manager Jim Bowden was charged with DUI after he ran a stop sign in Miami Beach. His girlfriend was charged with battery and resisting arrest stemming from an incident that night as well.
Penn State fined women's basketball coach Rene Portland $10,000 for violation of the school's nondiscrimination policy for her treatment of a player who wasn't feminine enough for the team.
Arizona minor league pitcher Angel Rocha was suspended 100 games for a second violation of baseball's steroid policy. Four other minor leaguers got 50-game bans for first offenses.

None of this stuff is sudden -- the mid-April sports lull has just pushed these stories more to the forefront. At least once a day it seems we get another tale of bad behavior from the sports world.

What's the common thread among these stories? Entitlement. Sports fans are shocked (SHOCKED!) to hear that these incidents occur. But do we ever think about what we do to perpetuate them?

We plead for winning teams and winning players, we form the audience for whom sports has evolved into a billion-dollar industry. We can't be surprised at the collateral damage caused by this phenomenon. Coaches push their players to the limits. Players push their bodies to the limits. Both groups -- and others associated with sports -- find ways to blow off steam, not always the right ways. We rarely pay attention to these things that go on behind the scenes, until they blow up into headlines.

Then after we've run our heroes through the wringer, we grant them forgiveness and root for them all over again.

This is not to say that all athletes make the misguided decisions those mentioned above might have made, nor is it to excuse any of them if they did make those decisions. It's not to say all sports fans are without ethics and soul. Hell, I'm probably the biggest hypocrite of all, sitting at my computer writing this blog because I care about sports and I have enough ego to think others might care what I have to say about them.

But we all make a bit of a Faustian bargain to be sports fans, especially in this day and age. Today was a good day for the devil.

DJ

2006-04-17T20:22:00.000-05:00

Book Review: Dave Kindred on Ali and Cosell

The praise given Dave Kindred's book "Sound and Fury: Two Powerful Lives, One Fateful Friendship" on its back cover doesn't even begin to do it justice. This "tri-biography" of Muhammad Ali, Howard Cosell, and the partnership between the two, is a wonderful book and a novel concept that only a few had the knowledge, connections and talent to write. Thankfully for all of us, Kindred has.

Two books on Ali stand out for me -- Thomas Hauser's defining "Muhammad Ali: His Life and Times," an oral history that Kindred rightly cites as generating relevance for Ali more than 10 years after his retirement, and David Remnick's majestic "King of the World: Muhammad Ali and the Rise of an American Hero," which chronicles Ali's rise in the context of the often-frightening period during which it occurred. In his acknowledgements, Kindred admits that he had wanted to do an Ali biography but was overwhelmed by all the current work, so he offered to do one on Cosell. His agent suggested a biography of both. "Great agent," is the author's comment on that suggestion.

Kindred, a longtime sportswriter for The Washington Post, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and The Sporting News, among other publications, knew both men well. How well? In his introduction, he describes a scene in which he crawls into bed with a naked Ali in order to get a list of the names in the fighter's entourage, then segues to a scene at Cosell's house on Long Island in which the broadcaster emerges from his bedroom in his underwear, sans toupee, and flexes his muscles to show off to the author. Kindred has a genuine appreciation for both men, but his book is far more than an homage to their greatness.

The author paints a balanced portrait of both as flawed human beings, who rose to fame together in the turbulent 1960s, both minorities who dealt with persecution and rose above it. Despite their most obvious differences -- age, race, religion, marital history, and looks -- they had a great deal in common.

First, they were both driven by their own insecurity. Ali (then Cassius Clay) was driven to the Black Muslims by the sense of belonging they gave him, even as the group was undergoing a philosophical split that would result in Malcolm X's murder. His proclamations of his greatness before the cameras were driven by self-motivation as much as showmanship. Cosell was a perfectionist who feared the worst before almost every broadcast but managed to deliver every time. His selection for "Monday Night Football," the gig that cemented his celebrity, came only after a series of calls to badger creator Roone Arledge, which finally drew a return call and this hilarious ensuing exchange:

Arledge: "Get over here as soon as you can. There's something I need to talk to you about."
Cosell: "Ahhhh, from the desperation of your tone, I can only conclude that the bon vivant who is Roone Pinckney Arledge is beseeching me to rescue the trifle he's devised for Monday evenings. Am I not correct?"
Arledge: "As always, Howard."
Cosell: "And you no doubt expect me to shoulder this Stygian burden without additional compensation."
Arledge: "Yes, Howard, I do."
Cosell: "I accept."

Yet for all their haughty speech and insecurity, both worked to get where they were. Ali fought his way out of the Jim Crow South, took out perhaps the most feared champion of all-time in Sonny Liston, took on the government over the Vietnam War, regained the heavyweight title twice more, and retired with five career losses -- three of which came in his final four fights, when his body had already begun deteriorating and he was going for the paycheck. He is one of the most beloved men in the world. Cosell put himself through law school, joined the Army during World War II, directed his own early work, jumped to television at precisely the moment it was taking off in the national consciousness, and had a sixth sense of where to be when a major story was breaking so that his was the first voice you heard when you needed information. Followers have called him one of the "three C's of television:" Carson, Cronkite and Cosell.

So often Cosell's path intertwined with Ali's. A political liberal, Cosell defended Ali's right to take an anti-war stance (though Cosell was careful not to adopt the same public stance himself). He read the fighter's on-air statement announcing that he had refused to enter the service. Cosell was the first to reach the new champion upon his miraculous dispatch of Liston. He attended every Ali fight thereafter except the former champ's career-ending loss to Trevor Berbick, and shared numerous interviews along the way, probing Ali's thoughts and intentions. Their exchanges were often playful, occasionally serious, always memorable.

Both fell from glory at roughly the same time. Ali's final fights were money grabs to support himself after divorces, the Black Muslims and hangers-on who had taken advantage of Ali's good nature, had drained much of the champ's bank account. He refused to train seriously and was beaten soundly by Leon Spinks, Larry Holmes and Berbick. Cosell, who helped establish "Monday Night Football" as an American tradition, left it bitter with his broadcast partners and done in by a scandal in which he had, ironically, called Washington Redskins receiver Alvin Garrett a "little monkey." The man who did as much for racial equality than anyone in sports was wrongly labelled a racist, but no one could overlook his increasingly boorish treatment of his broadcast partners and his self-serving rants directed toward the hypocrisy he now saw in sports.

Heroes are the people we wish ourselves to be, at least for a little while. And at their best, both Muhammad Ali and Howard Cosell filled the bill. We wish to see the Ali who danced around the ring as a youth, who outran Liston, outsmarted George Foreman and outlasted Joe Frazier. We wish to see Cosell on the television describing the boxer he knew best, or uncovering the story behind Tommie Smith and John Carlos' Olympic protest, or opining on Reggie Jackson's dramatic homers or Lynn Swann's acrobatic catches.

Most of all, we want to hear them. For both were masters of language. Ali's street poetry and off-kilter proclamations that somehow became reality made him more intriguing than any athlete of our lifetimes. Cosell's polysyllabic hyperbole couldn't obscure the truth or conviction from the words he spoke and brought him at least a grudging respect. We want to hear them again, at the top of their profession, perhaps together in a boxing ring or a TV studio.

But Cosell has been dead nearly 11 years, and Ali is stricken by Parkinson's disease that has rendered him mute. It has taken another man with a gift for language, Dave Kindred, to restore them to us.

DJ

2006-04-12T20:16:00.000-05:00

The Case for MVP

The NBA regular season often takes on an air of inconsequence, but this year has produced one of the most compelling MVP races in recent memory. Given that many of the usual suspects have suffered through injuries (Shaquille O'Neal, Tracy McGrady), or bad seasons by their teams (Kevin Garnett), or just haven't lived up to their usual lofty standard (Tim Duncan), the battle for MVP is wide open and as many as 10 players belong in the discussion.

The philosophical issue around this award is whether it goes to the best player in the league or the one who simply is the most critical to his teams success. In sorting through the candidates, I've come to the conclusion that the player who meets both criteria is one and the same.

My top five, in reverse order:

5) Chauncey Billups, Detroit: One of the game's most underrated players for a long time now has a Finals MVP to his credit from 2004 and was in the upper echelon of this discussion when the Pistons got out of the gate quickly. His 19 points and nearly nine assists per game are five points and four assists better than his career highs. But ultimately the Pistons thrive because of how well their players complement one another. Billups is the best of the bunch and the glue, but he has more help than anyone in the league except possibly Duncan.
4) Dwyane Wade, Miami: With O'Neal limited to 57 games so far this year, Wade has become the Heat's unquestioned star. He's fifth in the NBA scoring and also ranks in the top 10 in steals and assists. But Miami has added balance and depth that was missing last year, and ultimately, Pat Riley will get the credit for molding it into the second-best team in the East. Wade's negatives are his weak 3-point shooting (.171) and the team's 11 1/2 game deficit to Detroit in the East.
3) Steve Nash, Phoenix: Last year's winner has to be in the hunt again, after taking a team that's been without three starters from last season's Western Conference finalist squad. After the trade of Quentin Richardson, the free-agent loss of Joe Johnson and the injury to Amare Stoudemire, Nash has led a Suns squad and turned players such as Raja Bell and Boris Diaw into stars. He has increased his scoring to more than 19 points a game and leads the league in assists. But the Suns have taken a back seat to the Spurs and Mavericks in the West, so the award has to go elsewhere this year.
2) Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas: Nowitzki will never be a great defender, but his leadership and willingness to expend the effort to learn coach Avery Johnson's scrappier style of play has inspired the Mavericks to nearly the best record in the West. What Nowitzki will always be is a great shooter, perhaps the game's best and certainly one of its most clutch. There's also the nine rebounds per game that his 7-foot frame affords him and his stellar free-throw percentage (.897, which is sixth in the league but only third among the people on this top-five list). He only loses out because of the caliber of the man in front of him.
1) LeBron James, Cleveland: There just aren't enough superlatives to describe this man's ascendance into basketball legend. Just three years ago James was in high school and the Cavaliers were a franchise on life support. Now the kid from nearby Akron has taken Cleveland to 47 wins (fourth in the East) and averages nearly 32 points per game. He adds seven rebounds and seven assists a game, making him a candidate for a triple-double every game, and he's doing it with the help of a solid, but certainly not imposing cast around him. He is unafraid to take -- and make -- the big shot, evidenced by his 19-for-29 shooting performance in the last two minutes of a one-possession game. James might wear out in the playoffs (averaging 43 minutes per game), but somewhere along the way he should pick up his first of what should be many MVP awards.

Not in my top five is Kobe Bryant, who leads the league in scoring and had the second-most points in a game in NBA history with 81. Along with LeBron, he's the most likely player in the sport to take a last-second shot when his team needs it. But for those who want to make the argument that without Kobe, the Lakers would be one of the league's worst teams, I rebutt with this: Without Kobe, the Lakers probably have O'Neal, and they'd be no worse off at all.

DJ

2006-04-11T12:49:00.000-05:00

A Blast from the Past

While I've always been and always will be a fan of the great game of Strat-O-Matic Baseball, I spent the better part of two college years playing RBI Baseball, in its Nintendo and Arcade form.

You might remember RBI, a rudimentary video baseball game that had 16 players (eight starters, four bench players and four pitchers) per team. In particular, the arcade game was fun because the 10 teams were all-time rosters for each of 10 franchises. (They couldn't do any better for the Braves at shortstop than Rafael Ramirez.) Pitchers could throw fast and slow and make the ball curve, loosely based on their real abilities. Batters had power and speed proportional to their own in real-life. Defense was controllable, but not based on the actual caliber of the player, so there were no worries about defensive substitutions.

If you check Deadspin, you've seen this recently, but someone was able to recreate the sixth game of the 1986 World Series using the Mets and Red Sox teams from RBI Baseball and Vin Scully's play-by-play of the real game. I especially like the part where they congratulate Marty Barrett for being the player of the game with one out to go.

Lovers of RBI should also check out a great site that has reviews of all the teams from both the Nintendo and Arcade versions.

DJ

2006-04-08T11:36:00.000-05:00

Break 'em up

The first week of the baseball season always provides the sort of surprises that breed overreaction, so with that in mind:

Get ready for the Tigers-Brewers World Series!

Detroit and Milwaukee are the only teams yet to lose this year. Granted, they have gone 4-0 against less than overwhelming competition. The Tigers beat the lowly Royals twice and then teed off on the weak Rangers pitching staff. The Brewers swept Pittsburgh and then beat Arizona.

But nevertheless, two teams that haven't been competitive for nearly 15 years are winning games that they should. That's the first step toward climbing out of mediocrity.

The Brewers are everyone's sleeper pick this year after finishing 81-81 last year (their first .500 season since Paul Molitor left in 1992). I chose them to finish third, because it's never a baseball season in Milwaukee without major injuries. But the front office has built this team smartly. GM Doug Melvin is one of the finest in the game, and Milwaukee has a crop of young talent in Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and many others. The Brewers' farm system was once a wasteland but now has the depth of talent to carry the team for many years -- critical in a market that can't afford a high-payroll team.

And here's an example of how good a GM Melvin is: Last winter he traded Brewers closer Dan Kolb, probably overvalued after posting 39 saves in 2004, to Atlanta for Jose Capellan, a young prospect with a great arm. After Kolb flamed out as the Braves' closer, he's back in Milwaukee this year setting up Derrick Turnbow. If starter Ben Sheets can recover quickly from a back injury, Milwaukee certainly will be in the hunt for the wild card in the weak National League.

Detroit is a different story, but the Tigers are benefiting from the adage about a rising tide lifting all boats. The AL Central had previously been the sport's worst division, but the three-year division run by the pitching-rich Twins, followed by the White Sox title and the Indians' emergence, have made it one of baseball's best divisions.

Now Detroit, after a year of bringing in veterans like Pudge Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco and talented but injury-prone Magglio Ordonez, has a team that can show up without getting laughed out of visiting stadiums. Case in point: The Twins can basically thank the Tigers for their three division titles, winning 41 of 56 meetings between the two teams. Last year, Detroit won eight of the 19 meetings and was only four games under .500 until collapsing with an 8-24 record beginning September 1.

But Detroit is quietly assembling young talent as well, in pitchers Jeremy Bonderman, Fernando Rodney and Justin Verlander, outfielder Curtis Granderson and first baseman Chris Shelton, who is hitting a cool .688 with five homers so far this year.

Both Detroit and Milwaukee opened new stadiums in this decade to sparse crowds who preferred winning to hope. Now, though the season is far too early to draw conclusions, both cities may finally be cashing in.

2006-04-07T09:39:00.000-05:00

Best of the Rest

With the Masters underway in Augusta, Ga., so kicks off a season of many secondary events that are popular with certain sports fans but not all. They don't have the national cachet of baseball, football, basketball, or NASCAR, but they often provide for compelling entertainment, and many true fans wouldn't miss them.

Here are my five favorite events in the "non-major" sports:

5) The Frozen Four -- I have to admit hockey wasn't even on my radar screen when I was young. A great season by the Flyers might catch my attention but otherwise I was watching basketball instead of hockey. But going to college at Bowdoin and graduate school at the University of Minnesota turned me on to college hockey. The Frozen Four has produced some classic games -- my two favorites were the 1989 and 1991 championship games, both held in St. Paul, Minn. Harvard beat Minnesota in overtime in 1989, and Northern Michigan won an unbelievable 8-7 triple overtime game against Boston University in 1991.

4) Wimbledon -- I've heard people group golf and tennis into one column in terms of following sports, and I have to admit it's true for me. When I was younger and played a lot of tennis, I wouldn't miss one of the Grand Slams. As I've gotten older and play a little bit of golf, I appreciate that sport more. But I still make some time for Wimbledon. It doesn't get much better than waking up early on a Sunday morning in July to catch the ladies' or men's final. The points are sometimes painfully short, but the fast grass keeps the tempo of the match going and puts an advantage on the server that makes service breaks truly rare.

3) The U.S. Open (golf) -- The Masters certainly has a lure, but most of all, I appreciate watching the world's greatest golfers enduring the tough conditions on USGA courses. It makes me, for once, feel a little better about my own (bad) game. And while Augusta is probably the nation's most revered course, it's fun to see new courses every year and learn about the USGA "Openizes" them. As I mentioned with Wimbledon and service breaks, birdies at the U.S. Open are so precious that a 10-footer puts you in the edge of your seat.

2) The World Cup -- Can you see a trend developing here? Service breaks at Wimbledon: rare. Birdies at the U.S. Open: rare. Goals at the World Cup: really rare. There's a reason why Andres Cantor goes nuts about each one. While the Olympics has become an overcommercialized mess, the World Cup is now the premier international sporting event for its displays of nationalism and pride. Though soccer has risen in popularity in the United States, it will never become anything close to the national sport that it is in most countries. And by that measure, the World Cup gives us a chance to look inside other cultures and feel their own heartbeat for a while.

1) The Kentucky Derby -- The first one I ever watched came in 1977, when Seattle Slew raced to victory and then went on to win the Triple Crown. Affirmed and Alydar staged their classic battle the next year, and carried it through for two more big races. I figured winning the Triple Crown was easy. No one has won since. In '79, Spectacular Bid almost made it three straight but lost to Coastal in the Belmont Stakes. Pleasant Colony, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones couldn't finish the deal. But on Derby Sunday, we wait in anticipation for the next possible Crown winner to emerge. While there's nothing better than a Belmont Stakes when a Triple Crown is at stake, the Derby is the only of the three races where you can truly root for any horse, because they all technically have a shot at the Crown.

Those are my favorites; I'd love to hear yours.

DJ

2006-04-05T14:16:00.000-05:00

Why wait until next year?

If you're already suffering from college basketball withdrawal, and who doesn't after the buildup of March Madness, here's a look at ESPN's top 10 for next year. They also have posted their 11-25, and a mock bracket for next year's tournament. Are you kidding me?

In case you're in the mood for traveling, the Final Four in 2007 will be in Atlanta, the regionals in East Rutherford, St. Louis, San Antonio and San Jose. First-round sites include Buffalo; Winston-Salem; Lexington, Ky.; New Orleans; Columbus; Chicago; Spokane, Wash.; and Sacramento.

DJ

2006-04-04T08:37:00.000-05:00

Gators have bite

Not much to be said about the NCAA championship game last night, as Florida easily handled UCLA 73-57. This completed one of the most dominant runs in NCAA tournament history, certainly since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Only Georgetown challenged the Gators, falling 57-53 in the Sweet 16. Florida won its final three games by 13, 15 and 16 points. The last champ to win its final three games by double digits was Duke in 2001, but that's deceiving because the Blue Devils won by 10, 11 and 10, coming back from an early 22-point deficit in their semifinal win over Maryland and pulling away from Arizona late in the final. Florida's last three games weren't that close.

The Gators have remarkable poise for such a young team. Their play makes sense given the pedigree that Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Taurean Green have as sons of professional athletes. All three of them, as well as their teammates, play as if they've been there before. Billy Packer talked about "basketball IQ" a lot last night, and it's rare that you'll see that kind of praise heaped on sophomores (or by Packer in general). Perhaps Billy Donovan, as a young coach who played in a Final Four 19 years ago, can relate the game pressure to his players better than many coaches. Whatever the reason, Florida never let the game get too big for them.

Jim Nantz had the stat of the game last night when he mentioned that Florida was one of only two teams in Division I to have all five starters with more assists than turnovers. South Carolina (which beat the Gators twice and nearly a third time) was the other. That trait put the Gators over the top last night. Against one of the most suffocating defenses in recent tournament memory, Florida turned the ball over only six times (with 21 assists).

While the Monday night title game didn't have the cachet of last year's final between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country, it did feature the two best teams in the tournament. And there's no question the best team won. Congratulations to the Gators.

DJ

2006-04-02T17:47:00.000-05:00

Book Review: Feinstein on the Final Four

With a long plane ride this weekend, I devoured John Feinstein's latest book: "Last Dance: Behind the Scenes at the Final Four." While the author takes some criticism for churning out books in rapid fire, often repeating topics and anecdotes, I have to say this is one of his better efforts of late. That's simply because the man loves college basketball, he's well connected in the game, and he can spin a great story even when he's on autopilot.

"Last Dance" is really a series of vignettes about people associated with the event. From Billy Packer and Dick Vitale on television, to long-time reporters Bill Brill, Dick Weiss and Jim O'Connell, to NCAA director of officiating Hank Nichols, to his favorite subjects -- the coaches, Feinstein tells the stories behind the crowning moment of the college basketball season. Yes, it's a little bit redundant; yes, it gets a little sloppy at times (in Mike Krzyzewski's introduction, he refers to Scott May's broken leg prior to the 1975 tournament, when it was a broken arm). But it still lures you in and makes you turn the page.

Feinstein is close with a number of great coaches, and he has significant material from each of the past five winners: Krzyzewski, Gary Williams, Jim Boeheim, Jim Calhoun and Roy Williams. He also sits down with two of the best ever: Dean Smith and John Wooden, to get their take on the event and the march to get there. He goes behind the scenes for the selection of the teams and the officials, particularly criticizing the team selection committee for its secrecy and its pandering to the power conferences by creating the play-in game in 2001.

Ideally, if the author simply wrote about basketball and golf, which the majority of his books are about, he'd produce enough to keep me entertained, and the paperback edition of this book should be interesting, since Feinstein usually writes a new afterword on events since the publication of the hardback edition, and he has a great story in this year's tournament with George Mason. Feinstein has demonstrated a knowledge and appreciation for the little guy in his work, and he's as well qualified to write about the Patriots' run as any journalist.

I've read the majority of Feinstein's nonfiction -- exceptions being "Play Ball," "Open" and "Let Me Tell You a Story." Here are my five favorites of his work:

5) The Punch -- These are my favorite kinds of books, where an author can take a single event and tell the stories surrounding it. Feinstein worked closely with the two main characters in an ugly NBA fight in 1977 -- Kermit Washington and Rudy Tomjanovich -- to tell the story of the incident (in which Tomjanovich suffered serious face and head injuries from a brutal Washington right-hand punch), how it changed both men's lives, and how it affected basketball.

4) A Civil War -- Most of Feinstein's work consists of his chronicle of a year in the life of some sports team, league, or group of individuals, which he is able to write by gaining complete access to his subject. Here Feinstein spends a year with the Army and Navy football teams, describing their season, the stories of the players' backgrounds, and the pageantry and challenges of playing for a service academy. This is where Feinstein shows his appreciation for all who play sports, not just the stars. Nearly all of the players featured would be more likely to fight in a war than play a down in the NFL.

3) A March to Madness -- The last three all come from Feinstein's two preferred sports -- college hoops and golf. He's done several books of going inside the college basketball season, and this one is better than "A Season Inside" or "The Last Amateurs." Feinstein, a Duke grad, had ties to the ACC and many of its coaches, and gained access to seven of the nine programs at the time (all but North Carolina and NC State). He followed the 1997 season, Dean Smith's final one at UNC and a year that also featured Mike Krzyzewski struggling to return to health at Duke, Gary Williams leading the Maryland program back from the dead, and the emergence of Clemson's Rick Barnes as a big-time coach.

2) A Good Walk Spoiled -- This book seemed to come out of nowhere in 1995 and is still the best presentation of the unique pressures of the PGA Tour. The golfers that Feinstein selects to follow run the gamut from elites like Davis Love and Greg Norman, to an aging Tom Watson, to Q-schoolers Mike Donald and Brian Henninger, to Senior PGA star-in-waiting Bruce Fleisher, to courageous Paul Azinger during his cancer fight. He explains the intensity of the major championships (perhaps better than in "The Majors", but more so he shows how difficult it is to get the chance to play on the Tour, how easily a career can rise or fall, and how golfers live with the weekly grind of having to play two solid rounds just to earn a paycheck. This is both a heart-breaking and uplifting book.

1) A Season on the Brink -- The book that launched the author's career, picking anything other than this for Feinstein's best would be saying something besides the Sistine Chapel ceiling is Michelangelo's best paint job. Feinstein got total access to Bob Knight's Indiana program, and produced a work that changed sportswriting by showing the context behind the headlines at a major college basketball program. Knight didn't speak to Feinstein for years after the book came out, but agreed to talk to him when Feinstein wrote his recent book on Knight idol Red Auerbach. That's just, because though Knight doesn't come across like a saint in "A Season on the Brink," he does come across as a man in full -- a great teacher and leader of young men with hypercompetitive instincts and stubbornness that often push he and his team over the edge. Not merely a great sports book, this is one of best nonfiction works ever.

DJ

2006-04-02T17:01:00.000-05:00

The Final

It's the Gators and the Bruins in the NCAA championship game tomorrow night, a matchup that was unlikely when the tournament began but now makes perfect sense.

Florida has been the best team in the tournament. Mark this stat away: The last eight champions have won each of their first two tournament games by double digits. (Arizona in 1997 was the last not to do so.) The Gators opened this tournament with impressive victories over South Alabama and UW-Milwaukee, and only Georgetown lost to the Gators by single digits (57-53). It is often true what they say about championship teams getting lucky at least once in the tournament, but it is rare that the winner doesn't also get a few easy games, especially early against much lower seeds.

UCLA certainly got lucky in the Sweet 16 when Gonzaga blew a late nine-point lead. (The Bruins also squeaked past Alabama 62-59 in the second round.) But UCLA beat the Bulldogs as they have won virtually all of their games this season, with defense. Their victories over Memphis and LSU were borderline unwatchable, because of the Bruins' suffocating man-to-man. But think about what they did, knocking out two hot teams that UCLA supposedly didn't have the athletes to compete with. The Bruins are very quick, very determined, and they go to the glass as well as any team in America. They'll need those traits to beat the Gators, who have proven their own mettle much the same way.

This matchup also features two teams that won their conference tournaments, putting an end to the myth that it's better to lose early and rest before you go to the NCAAs. Florida was very impressive in the SEC tournament until the final, when they had to grind out a two-point victory over a South Carolina team that had beaten them twice during the regular season. UCLA dominated the Pac 10 tournament, beating Cal in the final 71-52. As a result, the Gators enter the game Monday on a 10-game winning streak and the Bruins on a 12-game winning streak.

Finally, Florida and UCLA represent the two of the most impressive conferences in this tournament, with the Missouri Valley likely being a third. The Gators joined SEC rival LSU in the Final Four, and the Bruins came out of a Pac 10 that nearly shocked two number one seeds -- Arizona took Villanova to the wire in the second round, and Washington would have beaten Connecticut in the Sweet 16 but not for a silly foul by Mike Jensen and a late 3-pointer by Rashad Anderson.

Meanwhile, the Big East watched all eight of its teams go down, including two number-one seeds in the Elite Eight. The Big Ten didn't even survive the tournament's first weekend. The ACC was done by the end of the Sweet 16 (while the women's Final Four has three ACC teams, all of whom have won a men's title since 2001). And the Big 12 put Texas in the Elite Eight but lost Kansas and Oklahoma in first-round upsets and Texas A&M in the second round.

Where these two teams blow the prototypes of finalists is in their makeup. Both are extremely young, especially their stars. Florida starts four sophomores and junior Lee Humphrey. UCLA has two senior starters but its top three players -- Jordan Farmar, Arron Afflalo and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute -- are two sophomores and a freshman. Also, it's rare that a team that doesn't shoot particularly well, like UCLA, or a team that relies so heavily on the 3-pointer, like Florida, wins the championship. Why they're here is that the Bruins can stay in games in which they don't shoot well, and the Gators have two great inside players to complement their shooters.

Who wins? I'm looking at it this way: The team that can stop the other from doing what it likes best will win. I think UCLA has the better chance of doing so. Florida loves to run and press, but UCLA is quick enough and deep enough to stay with them, and they have two good point guards in Farmar and freshman Darren Collison. The Bruins also pressure the perimeter and recover well on defense, making Florida's inside-outside game harder to execute. UCLA doesn't have great big guys, but the Bruins showed on Saturday that Mbah a Moute, Ryan Hollins, Lorenzo Mata, Alfred Aboya, and company can hold their own against the likes of Davis and Thomas.

Ben Howland is trying to become the first coach since Jim Calhoun in 1999 to win the championship in his first trip to the Final Four. He and the Bruins will have to win it in the city where UCLA registered its only loss in a championship game (the 1980 final to Louisville in Market Square Arena) and beat a coach who has Final Four experience and a team that is playing at an incredibly high level.

But the Bruins all tournament have shown they can do whatever it takes to win. It's rarely pretty, but the results speak for themselves. After two rather boring semifinals, this one holds our interest and goes to the wire, where the Bruins have just enough -- again. UCLA 63, Florida 60.

DJ

2006-03-30T21:00:00.000-06:00

Final Four Predictions

Clarity has finally come to me after analyzing this most unlikely group of Final Four teams.

Florida over George Mason -- Anyone who didn't go to school in Gainesville is likely to root for the Patriots. And they can't be underestimated after beating an impressive collection of teams to get to Indianapolis. But Florida has the talent to execute the type of gameplan that can beat Mason. The Gators are a deep team that loves to run and press, and they won't give up on those things even if Mason counters them early. Eventually they will wear out a Patriots team that used its starting five for the final 16 minutes of the Connecticut game. I sincerely hope I'm wrong on this one, because the Patriots' and Jim Larranaga's story is one I don't want to end. But Florida looks like the best team left in the field.

UCLA over LSU -- Watching the Tigers beat Duke and Texas with their strong interior play, I have a hard time picking against LSU. But UCLA plays the type of defense that wins championships. It's not pretty to watch, but it's awfully effective. LSU is a young team that rides emotion and that type of team is most susceptible to a tempo-controlling team like the Bruins. Obviously, UCLA has no one in their frontcourt that can match up one-on-one with Glen Davis or Tyrus Thomas, so Ben Howland's game plan will have to prevent them from getting the ball too close to the basket. He'll probably use defensive stopper Arron Afflalo on Tigers' point guard Darrel Mitchell and try to deny the senior his passing lanes to the big people.

Enjoy the games. I'll post a finals prediction on Monday night.

DJ

2006-03-30T20:02:00.000-06:00

Bush Leagues

Three announcements came out in the past two days, encompassing the three most prominent team sports leagues. I don't understand any of them.

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Item: Bud Selig has commissioned an investigation of past steroid use in the major leagues, and he has named former senator George Mitchell. (I'm inserting a cheap plug for a fellow Bowdoin grad.) Mitchell, also a director for the Boston Red Sox, supposedly will be given free reign to analyze the facts and make determinations. Translation: Baseball is about to psychoanalyze itself. Because, quite honestly, the evidence against Bud Selig, Donald Fehr, the owners and other leaders in the sport is far more grievous than anything that Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams have on Barry Bonds.

Baseball stood by while Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Bonds assaulted the home run records while turning their bodies into lab experiments. Now they want to investigate them and anyone else who might have stained the game while its leaders cast a blind eye their way.

So Selig is lying when when he says that the "specificity of the charges" in "Game of Shadows" is the reason for the investigation -- it all comes down to sponsors threatening to run from any association with the league and Bonds' effort to break the home run record. Yes, this is all about statistics. The most hallowed record in the sport is under assault. And Bonds' countdown will also be Mitchell's.

The "damned lies" in the headline above would refer to BALCO founder Victor Conte saying that much of what is contained in "Game of Shadows" is untrue, and that he plans to provide evidence to the contrary.

This ought to be interesting. Conte is the guy who supplied athletes with enough drugs to mutate them into pigeons, then went on national TV to out a bunch of them so that, in his words, children wouldn't be harmed. In the history of Americans, Conte's rank on the honesty continuum would rank below the likes of Washington and Lincoln. It would also be below Benedict Arnold, James Frey and Andrew Fastow.

Grounds for Celebration Eliminated

The NFL competition committee passed a measure that puts limits on end zone celebrations. Using props is no longer allowed, nor is going to the ground to do some sort of animated show. Spikes are fine. Dances are fine. Even the Lambeau Leap was spared (perhaps because the Packers didn't score a lot of touchdowns last year).

What's the point? What harm do these celebrations cause the game? The NFL is positioning this as a players' union request, which is really a way to deflect attention from what is clearly a power play by the league. End zone celebrations are one of the signatures of the NFL. It's where players have the freedom to display their personalities and the joy they have for the game. Football is an emotional sport. How would you prefer the players release their emotions?

Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer praised the move, saying, "The game is about the team, not the individual." That's fine -- so let's go a few steps beyond that. Let's take last names off the jerseys. Those direct fans to the individual. Let's take names out of the boxscores. If Willie Parker runs 75 yards, the newspaper can just say "Steelers 75-yard touchdown." Yes, football is a team sport, but the talent -- and the expressiveness -- of individuals are what make it so exciting. This was really a needless decision by the league.

Tightwads

Here's the most bizarre story of all: The NBA is banning tights. I guess they're worried that this might become the latest gang trend, in which the "Robin Hoods" take aim on a street corner against the "Hamlets."

NBA players have consistently stated that they wear tights for health reasons, whether it's muscle efficiency, injury prevention or improved blood circulation. I doubt there's a player in the league who wears them for the look. The NBA will require a doctor's notice before allowing a player to wear them, beginning next season. Sounds like something you heard in seventh grade if you dared fall ill on the day of an exam.

David Stern is the king of rulemaking for rulemaking's sake, but he's entered the theater of the absurd.

For the record, ESPN.com published a list of players spotted in tights this year as a sidebar to their news story. And let me say, that team would be VERY deep at the 2-guard.

DJ

2006-03-30T15:45:00.000-06:00

Must reading on competitive balance

A few weeks ago, I posted a column about the needless hand-wringing over the potential lack of a salary cap in the NFL. Obviously, a labor deal extension was negotiated and the salary cap will remain in place through 2011. But I stand by my premise that a salary cap and competitive balance are not mutually inclusive. Good management always trumps financial resources.

In my column, I talked about how Major League Baseball has had as many franchises win championships (five) in the past five years as the NBA has had since 1987. Now, David Schoenfield of ESPN.com has dug even deeper and produced a more compelling argument that baseball, without its salary cap, is at no greater disadvantage for competitive balance than the capped NFL and NBA.

Some franchises, such as the A's, Twins, Steelers and Spurs, have maintained competitve and healthy franchises in recent years without spending liberally. And others, such as the Orioles, Cubs, Knicks, and New York Rangers, have rarely contended despite seemingly limitless cash. And for all their money, the Yankees didn't make the playoffs for 12 straight seasons, from 1982 through 1993 (and no one did in 1994).

It's all a matter of building a solid foundation around player development, making smart choices in your drafts, and signing the right players for your system, not necessarily the most expensive ones.

A well-timed bad year can help, too. Pittsburgh got Ben Roethlisberger after going 6-10 in 2004, and San Antonio won the lottery and landed Tim Duncan in 1997 after a 20-62 campaign the year before. (The Spurs also made Gregg Popovich head coach during that woeful 1996-97 season.)

Ultimately, fans that blame their team's failure on a lack of payroll resources are, at best, oversimplifying. Thanks to David Schoenfield for helping to prove the point.

DJ

2006-03-29T16:38:00.000-06:00

Baseball Predictions, Part 3

Here's a look at the remaining two divisions and predictions for the playoffs and award winners.

American League East

1) Yankees -- New York has holes in their pitching staff, but the lineup should be good enough to overcome that until the playoffs.
2) Blue Jays -- I wanted to pick Toronto, but A.J. Burnett's injury reminded me that their high-profile moves also came with a lot of risk.
3) Red Sox -- There's Manny (being Manny) and Papi, but there's an awful lot of age on the pitching staff. Josh Beckett was a gamble worth making, though.
4) Devil Rays -- The return of Rocco Baldelli and the arrival of Delmon Young are positives, but the bullpen is a disaster. Still, Tampa Bay should get out of the cellar, thanks to ...
5) Orioles -- It's just awful, borderline criminal, what Peter Angelos has done with this team. A great baseball town like Baltimore deserves far better.

Best Starting Pitching -- Toronto. Roy Halladay is a true ace, and Gustavo Chacin, Ted Lilly and Josh Towers are solid. Burnett could be the difference as this team makes a playoff run.

Best Bullpen -- New York. This is solely based on the presence of Mariano Rivera. Boston could challenge if Keith Foulke is back to 100 percent.

Best Lineup -- New York. Adding Johnny Damon only makes the offense better, though he arguably makes the defense worse.

Best Defense -- Toronto. Despite the loss of Orlando Hudson, the Blue Jays have Vernon Wells and Bengie Molina, and they're competent at every position, which can't be said for most of their division rivals.

American League Central

1) White Sox -- If Bobby Jenks can handle a full season as the closer, the defending champions could be even better than last year.
2) Indians -- A team with great young talent will challenge the White Sox all the way, just like last year.
3) Twins -- Solid pitching as usual, but the Twins made cosmetic changes to a lineup that needs a major overhaul.
4) Tigers -- No longer a joke, the Tigers will be the spoiler in the division. Jim Leyland will get them to play hard, and the starting rotation has the potential to be very good, if Kenny Rogers doesn't implode.
5) Royals -- Reggie Sanders and Mark Grudzielanek crossed I-70 to sign with the Royals and instantly became the best players on the team.

Best Starting Pitching -- Chicago. The rich get richer. The best starting four last year added a solid fifth in Javier Vazquez, and Brandon McCarthy is waiting in the wings.

Best Bullpen -- Minnesota. If rookie left-hander Francisco Liriano is as good as advertised, he'll fill the only void in what is otherwise a solid pen anchored by Joe Nathan.

Best Lineup -- Cleveland. The scary thing is how young the Indians are. Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Jhonny Peralta can only get better.

Best Defense -- Minnesota. Newcomers Luis Castillo and Tony Batista are both strong defensively. Joe Mauer is a budding Gold Glover at catcher, while Torii Hunter can probably plan on adding to his stockpile.

MVPs
AL -- Paul Konerko, Chicago. With Jim Thome protecting him in the lineup, this great clutch hitter will have a lot of chances to come through.
NL -- Albert Pujols, St. Louis. The Cardinals should win the division again, and Pujols is the best hitter in the game.

Cy Young Awards
AL -- Roy Halladay, Toronto. He might have won the award last year if not for a line drive that broke his leg. Halladay has great stuff and a winner's attitude.
NL -- Roy Oswalt, Houston. What we saw in the playoffs is only the surface of how dominant Oswalt can be.

Rookies of the Year (the toughest category to pick because often the winner is in the minors at the start of the season)
AL -- Jeff Mathis, Anaheim. Mathis has a solid bat and is already a great receiver. The Angels pitching staff will make him look good.
NL -- Prince Fielder, Milwaukee. The Brewers had no problem trading Lyle Overbay because of Fielder's powerful left-handed bat.

Playoff Predictions
AL -- A's over Yankees, White Sox over Angels (wild card); White Sox over A's
NL -- Mets over Giants, Cardinals over Braves (wild card); Cardinals over Mets
World Series -- Cardinals over White Sox

2006-03-28T19:48:00.000-06:00

Baseball Predictions, Part 2

Tonight we'll take a shot at the two Wests.

National League West

1) Giants -- Somehow I have a feeling that Barry Bonds will take this season as a personal quest to make his detractors fume. That means a division title for San Francisco, and a new home run record, like it or not (and nearly everyone, include me, won't).
2) Dodgers -- Three new infielders should give Los Angeles the production it lacked last year. Massive Dodger Stadium usually takes care of the pitchers' needs.
3) Padres -- They have the best pitcher in the division in Jake Peavy, but the losses from the rest of the staff are going to be this club's downfall.
4) Diamondbacks -- Bob Melvin made Arizona respectable last season, but the job to a contender will be much tougher. Youngsters Brandon Webb and Chad Tracy are a good place to start, though.
5) Rockies -- This is a baseball team caught in a football town, with a stadium that's virtually impossible to win in consistently.

Best Starting Pitching -- Los Angeles. The Dodgers don't really have an ace, but they have the best five-man rotation. And they, like most teams on the Pacific Coast, get help from their park.

Best Bullpen -- San Diego. Trevor Hoffman is 42 saves shy of Lee Smith's all-time record. The emergence of Scott Linebrink and Clay Hensley made Akinori Otsuka expendable.

Best Lineup -- San Francisco. When you've got Bonds on your team, you have the best lineup. But this is an old group hoping for one final push.

Best Defense -- Arizona. This is a division full of DHs forced to play the field (Bonds, Mike Piazza, Jeff Kent, Ryan Klesko). None of those plays for Arizona, so they get the nod. The D-Backs also have one of the few truly great defenders in the division in Orlando Hudson.

American League West

1) Athletics -- Rich Harden's health is critical, because he has the best stuff on the pitching staff. But imagine if you can a small-market team that might be the most complete in baseball.
2) Angels -- A very professional team that will battle the A's the whole way and likely end up with the wild card.
3) Rangers -- Gutsy moves by Jon Daniels have balanced what was a homer-heavy team. I just don't see enough pitching there to win consistently against the top two.
4) Mariners -- The AL West is the only division without a truly bad team. The arrival of Kenji Johjima and the emergence of Felix Hernandez will make the Mariners exciting.

Best Starting Pitching: -- Oakland. But it's close. Anaheim's starting five that might be the second best in baseball. The edge goes to the A's, thanks to Barry Zito's world-class curveball and Harden's amazing blend of heat and junk.

Best Bullpen -- Anaheim. Expect Billy Beane to go after a lefty reliever if one doesn't emerge, because the Angels have more balance. That's assuming mercurial J.C. Romero finds his potential away from Minnesota.

Best Lineup -- Texas. Power across the board, perfect for their home field, and two of the game's best all-around hitters in Michael Young and Mark Teixeira.

Best Defense -- Anaheim. Pluses everywhere and no team has a player as versatile as Chone Figgins.

Tomorrow night, the AL East and Central and the picks for the playoffs and individual awards.

DJ

2006-03-27T19:50:00.000-06:00

Baseball Predictions, Part 1

With the college basketball season winding down, baseball season is nearly upon us and something to look forward to. The story of the season, unfortunately, will be Barry Bonds -- both his pursuit of Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron, and Bud Selig's own pursuit of Bonds' activities.

That aside, it is shaping up to be a wide-open year. I'll take a look at the teams over the next few nights, and make some guesses about the order of finish, with the National League East and Central tonight.

National League East

1) Mets -- The Braves have to lose the division at some point, don't they? And don't the Mets' spending sprees have to pay dividends at some time?
2) Braves -- The departure of Leo Mazzone could be the one defection the Braves can't handle. Edgar Renteria is a downgrade from the departed Rafael Furcal.
3) Phillies -- A solid lineup and defense is offset by weak starting pitching and a bullpen that can't hold up without Billy Wagner.
4) Nationals -- The stadium is being built, but that's not to say the same thing for the franchise. Frank Robinson will keep them out of the cellar.
5) Marlins -- Fire Sale No. 2 leaves them with only Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis among last year's regulars.

Best Starting Pitching -- Atlanta, even without Mike Hampton. Tim Hudson and John Smoltz are a solid 1-2, and a healthy John Thomson would give the Braves a solid core of starters.

Best Bullpen -- New York. Billy Wagner is almost automatic, and Jorge Julio could be a strong performer in a set-up role.

Best Lineup -- New York. That's assuming Carlos Beltran returns to his pre-free agent days. With the additions of Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca, the emergence of David Wright and the always-solid Cliff Floyd, the Mets can hit.

Best Defense -- Philadelphia. Aaron Rowand is a major upgrade in center field, Bobby Abreu is a so-called Gold Glover with a great arm, and Jimmy Rollins and David Bell are solid on the left side of the infield.

National League Central

1) Cardinals -- Still better than the rest of the field, if a bit long in the tooth. This is a team built for a long season rather than a short series, but maybe their new park will hold some magic.
2) Astros -- It's time to turn the page for Jeff Bagwell and Roger Clemens, both of whom might never play again. But the Astros are developing a new core of position players and still have great pitching with Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and Brad Lidge.
3) Brewers -- If you're looking for a surprise team, look no further than the great young nucleus taking shape in Milwaukee.
4) Cubs -- They're counting on too many fragile arms behind Carlos Zambrano, but the additions of Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones will help the lineup.
5) Pirates -- The young pitching is solid, but this is still a team caught on a treadmill. The additions of Sean Casey, Joe Randa and Jeromy Burnitz seem like band-aids until the Pirates fall out of the race and these guys are traded to contenders.
6) Reds -- Bronson Arroyo instantly becomes the ace of the staff, something you never want to say about a guy picked up in spring training. The outfield will be very good, if healthy, but that's about all there is.

Best Starting Pitching -- Houston. Everyone but Cincinnati has at least a decent rotation, but no one has a better pair at the top than the Astros' Oswalt and Pettitte.

Best Bullpen -- Houston. If Lidge has overcome his postseason problems, the Astros can bring it in the late innings with Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls setting him up.

Best Lineup -- St. Louis. The Cardinals lost three starters but still have the best hitter in baseball, Albert Pujols.

Best Defense -- St. Louis. Yadier Molina made the Cards forget Mike Matheny, which is saying something. David Eckstein is a fine shortstop, and Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds are Gold Glove-caliber.

Tomorrow night: The NL West and the AL West.

DJ

2006-03-27T09:29:00.000-06:00

John Feinstein on George Mason

Here's one of college basketball's top writers on the phenomenon that is George Mason.

DJ

2006-03-26T20:06:00.000-06:00

A Fresh Foursome

LSU is in the Final Four for the first time in 20 years. UCLA is back after an 11-year gap. Florida has gone six years between Final Fours (the last one for them, coincidentally, also came in Indianapolis). And then there's the newest face of all, George Mason.

This may be the most wide-open Final Four field in history. Four days of incredible basketball resulted in all four No. 1 seeds being eliminated, four of 12 games going to overtime and a few others going down to the wire, and the most improbable Final Four team of all emerging in those plucky Patriots.

Heroes of the Weekend: Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas, LSU. It's hard to call these guys twin towers because they are so physically different. But what a tandem Davis and Thomas were against Texas on Saturday. The pair combined for 47 points and 22 rebounds, shot 21-for-33 from the field and held Texas big man LaMarcus Aldridge to four points on 2-for-14 shooting. Were it not for Mason, LSU would be coming into Indy with the team of destiny label. Now they're simply going in as a terrific team.

Goats of the Weekend: Allan Ray and Mike Nardi, Villanova. After a solid first weekend, Ray couldn't find the hoop in Minneapolis, shooting 8-for-34. Nardi looked lost throughout the tournament, concluding it with a 2-for-11 performance Sunday against Florida. The Wildcats' 25 percent shooting was the worst percentage in a regional final since 1940.

Game of the Weekend: It has to be Mason-UConn. The Patriots' poise and execution were captivating to watch, and the Huskies actually played a good floor game after looking so sloppy against Washington. It was also a clean game; neither team was in the bonus in the second half until the closing minutes. Then there was Denham Brown's twisting reverse lay-up that tied it at the end of regulation and his potential game-winning 3-pointer that was a smidgen long.

Conference Roundup: The SEC has Florida and LSU. The Pac 10 has UCLA. And there's the Colonial Athletic Association, which can claim something the Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC cannot -- a Final Four team. This is the eighth consecutive year that a conference has two teams in the Final Four.

Gut Reactions for the Final Four: Florida has to be the favorite against George Mason, which ought to please the Patriots just fine. Like Connecticut, the Gators are long and quick up front and love to go to the glass. The formula to beat them is exactly what Mason did Sunday -- establish inside position, don't give up cheap fouls, control the tempo and recognize double-teams to get high-percentage shots. Florida also will press more than UConn did, and they'll try to catch Mason in happy-to-be-here mode at the start of their semifinal. LSU-UCLA is a study in contrasts, with the Tigers' strength lying up front and the Bruins' in the backcourt. A low-scoring game is likely with the way the teams play. It will be interesting to see who Bruins defensive whiz Arron Afflalo draws as an assignment, since LSU's top offensive players -- Davis and Thomas -- aren't natural matchups for the 6-foot-5 guard. Of the two, LSU is playing better basketball, while the Bruins have gutted out their last three victories.

DJ

2006-03-26T16:43:00.000-06:00

Greatest upset ever?

In reality, we should have seen this coming. The vaunted UConn Huskies, for all their talent, rarely found a comfort level as a unit. The George Mason Patriots took out three talented teams and played with no fear to reach their date with UConn. If there was ever a prescription for an upset, this was it. A confident, loose team playing a heavy favorite facing equally heavy expectations to win.

But it's still almost impossible to believe. George Mason 86, Connecticut 84. The Patriots are going to the Final Four. When Denham Brown's lay-up at the end of regulation hung on the rim, appeared to fall out of the cylinder, then swirled back and through the net, who didn't think the Huskies were going to cheat death once again.

Mason led by four in the final 20 seconds, couldn't nail the clinching free throws, and Brown's athletic play ensured that the Huskies would survive.

But they only survived for five more minutes. Mason executed its offense brilliantly in overtime, and though a couple of players had four fouls, the Patriots didn't have the widespread foul problems that essentially left Washington powerless on Friday night. They were able to play aggressively at both ends of the court. If the players were wearing blank jerseys and you watched the silky inside-outside game the Patriots possessed, you would have said you were watching a Big East or Big Ten power, not an 11th seed from the Colonial Athletic Association.

Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun tried to tell people his team wasn't as great as their press clippings. The Huskies were a team with big men and wing players, and only one true guard in Marcus Williams. And with Williams suffering through a 5-for-13 shooting performance and Friday hero Rashad Anderson making only 2-of-8 free throws, UConn wasn't effective against the Mason zone defense.

Greatest upset ever? It's in elite company, at the very least. Villanova had played Georgetown twice during the season before upsetting them in the 1985 final. Ditto Kansas over Oklahoma in the 1988 final and LSU over Kentucky in the 1986 Elite Eight (the only other 11th seed to make the Final Four). NC State over Houston in 1983 was a classic case of an underdog controlling the tempo. Mason was able to slow UConn down a little, but in essence, the two teams played at a pace with which they both seemed comfortable.

This was a classic case of an underdog team from a little-known school taking the game to the favorite, taking blow after blow and returning them all. Where this game makes history is in its signal of a watershed moment in college basketball history. After the rule changes that put in the 3-point shot and the shot clock, the flood of players leaving to the NBA as teenagers and the heavier scrutiny of recruiting, the playing field in the sport is finally level. Any team can beat any other team. George Mason is named for the so-called "Father of the Bill of Rights," which outlines the freedoms we all have as Americans. The George Mason basketball team has ushered in the start of a new era in their sport -- all teams are created equal.

DJ

P.S. -- At the time of this writing, a frigid-shooting Villanova team trails Florida 35-25. If that score holds, the four number one seeds will have all been eliminated before the Final Four for the first time since 1980.

2006-03-25T11:48:00.000-06:00

No. 1 with a Bullet (Dodged)

Another outstanding night of college hoops. Some recaps and then predictions for the Elite Eight.

Heroes of the Day: Randy Foye, Villanova, and Rashad Anderson, Connecticut. Foye was the only Villanova player on his game Friday night, and his shooting and fearlessness helped lift the Wildcats out of holes time and again. As great as Marcus Williams was for UConn (again), face it: Anderson's two late 3s are the only reason we're still talking about the Huskies as a title contender.

Goats of the Day: The officials. While both No. 1 seeds showed some grit and determination to come back, they both had a lot of help from the officials. The phantom traveling call on BC's Sean Williams, the non-goaltending call on Hilton Armstrong, and undeniably the worst call of the night -- the double technical on Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay in the Washington-UConn game. The referees had lost control of the game, and decided to make a point by T-ing up each team's best player for a STAREDOWN? As opposed to say, warning both players and both benches about the level of play first? Gutless. Absolutely gutless.

Game of the Day: While BC-Villanova looked like a 15-round fight between two boxers holding on to each other, UConn-Washington was a track meet where neither team could hold on to the baton. This has become the tournament where athleticism at all positions is winning out. When you look at the quality of the teams left -- Florida, LSU, Texas, Memphis -- they have people who can run the floor, jump and control their bodies exquisitely. The two Huskies showed that as well.

Conference Roundup: The SEC and Big East each send two teams to the Elite Eight, joining one team each from the Big 12, Conference USA, Pac 10 and the Colonial. That's right, Billy Packer. Colonial Athletic Association: one, ACC 0.

Player to Watch: Folarin Campbell, George Mason. Campbell came out hot Friday night for the Patriots, and if Mason is going to have any chance against UConn, Campbell will have to be firing 3s again. The game, played in Washington, D.C., will features seven of 10 starters from Maryland -- all five Patriots and the Huskies' Josh Boone and Gay.

Game to Watch: Villanova-Florida. Look out for the Gators, who are playing with the same gusto that took them to the finals in 2000. Villanova has narrowly escaped against a team with great speed (Arizona) and a team with great size (Boston College). Now they face a team with both.

Elite Eight Predictions (games in chronological order)

Texas over LSU -- Not discounting what the Tigers did against Duke, but Texas has far more quickness and size on the perimeter. Daniel Gibson and P.J. Tucker will be able to get their shot off when J.J. Redick couldn't. A key for Texas is senior Brad Buckman, who sat much of the second half against West Virginia because of the Mountaineers' small lineup. The 'Horns will need Buckman's size and toughness against a freakishly good Tigers frontline.

Memphis over UCLA -- The Tigers have just been playing too well. Granted, they haven't beaten anyone better than a No. 9 seed, but look at the struggles that UConn has had against teams seeded 16, 8 and 5. Memphis is taking the game right to its opponents, rather than waiting for the opportunity to present itself. Arron Afflalo against Rodney Carney is the key matchup, with Afflalo's defense trying to tame Carney's explosiveness.

Connecticut over George Mason -- Well, so much for that easy game I was talking about for the Huskies against Washington. After surviving that one, the 11th-seeded Patriots seem like easy fodder. But nothing seems to come easy for enormously talented UConn, and they'll make this game much closer than it appears on paper. At some point, Mason's going to play as if they're just happy to be here. Aren't they?

Florida over Villanova -- The Gators have a chance for revenge against the team that knocked them out of the tournament last year. Villanova had an awful time containing Arizona's Marcus Williams and Boston College's Sean Williams, two long, quick forwards. Meet Joakim Noah, who's better and more polished than both of them. The 'Nova frontline has done an admirable job against bigger teams all year, but Florida has more weapons and is one of the few clubs with team speed to match that of the Wildcats.

DJ

2006-03-24T08:10:00.000-06:00

What a Finish -- Times Two

Following back-to-back outstanding finishes in the Texas-West Virginia and UCLA-Gonzaga games, I must give two awards for each category today.

Heroes of the Day: Kenton Paulino and LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas. Paulino's last-second shot wouldn't have been possible without Aldridge's stellar play inside against West Virginia. The Mountaineers are the kind of team that it's impossible to hate. They play on grit and deadeye shooting, but in the end, Paulino's big shot beat them.

Goats of the Day: J.J. Redick, Duke, and Adam Morrison, Gonzaga. Again, apologies to fans of these two great players, who were the two best in the country during the season. But Redick's 3-for-18 shooting made him 13-for-60 in games in which the Blue Devils were eliminated from the tournament in his college career. Morrison scored 24 points, but it's up to the team's leader to keep the group focused and organized when the other team makes a run, and Gonzaga was anything but that.

Games of the Day: Whether you like a bang-bang finish or a dramatic comeback, the two late games had something for you. Texas-West Virginia was extremely well-played, and featured a fascinating contrast in styles. The Mountaineers might be the only team in the country that can be outrebounded by such a staggering margin (41-15) and still be in it at the end. UCLA-Gonzaga proved the theory that you have to play until the final buzzer. Gonzaga was not only the better team for nearly 37 minutes; they were utterly dominant. But the Bruins never stopped playing, and as mentioned earlier, the Bulldogs seemed to fall apart at the end. Offensively they seemed content to watch Morrison, who didn't make a field goal in the final seven minutes. And defensively, Gonzaga really missed Erroll Knight at the end, after their best defender fouled out of the game.

Players to Watch: Tyrus Thomas, LSU, and Darius Washington, Memphis. Thomas' athleticism and shot-blocking inside was too much for Duke, and Washington has gone from a Conference USA tournament goat last year to an outstanding team leader. Both Tigers will need to step up Saturday, as LSU faces a quick and athletic frontline and Memphis a trapping, pressure defense.

Games to Watch: I don't know about you, but I plan to watch both of them on Saturday. Memphis might be the best under-the-radar college basketball team in this decade. The Tigers have enough of a name that they don't capture the cute mid-major headlines like Bradley, Wichita State and George Mason have. They also don't have the cachet of Duke, UConn or any of the power-conference teams. They're just good, and I hope they're finally getting the respect they deserve. UCLA, however, will be Memphis' stiffest test by far. The LSU-Texas game features two of the sport's best frontlines. Texas, which had to leave its 2-3 zone against West Virginia because of the Mountaineers' 3-point shooting, won't have to face that dilemma with the Tigers.

DJ

2006-03-23T09:07:00.000-06:00

The Education of Vince Young

On January 4, Vince Young was on top of the world. The Longhorns quarterback had just led his team to a 41-38 upset of USC to win the Rose Bowl and the national championship. He had put the team on his back on the final two drives, scoring the winning touchdown on 4th-and-goal from the Trojans' 8.

Throughout the game, his play screamed Future NFL Star. When he made the decision to turn pro, most -- though not all -- football folks thought he had made the right decision.

Not even three months later, Vince Young has been picked apart more than a medical student's cadaver. First came the naysayers who said he didn't have a fundamental throwing motion for the NFL, that he was the product of a system that allowed him to read plays from a shotgun formation rather than as a classic NFL dropback passer.

Things spiraled further when his scores on the Wonderlic test were revealed, that he had been rumored to get a six on his first try before retaking and scoring a 15.

Yesterday came his first NFL workout, in which he ran a 4.58 in the 40-yard dash. If you're scoring at home, Young's time was the third best among draft-eligible quarterbacks who played college football in Texas. (Reggie McNeal of A&M ran a 4.35 and Barrick Nealy of Texas State ran a 4.57.)

Though several in attendance praised Young's skills, one unnamed scout told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that while Young's workout was "fairly impressive," his 40 time was slower than anticipated, the conditions for the workout were indoors and that Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler, the current darling of the scouts, was much more impressive in his workouts.

Welcome to the NFL, Vince. The level of scrutiny leading up to the draft is by far the greatest of any sport. If the draft was made on January 4, the wave of momentum might have made Young the No. 1 pick. A couple of weeks later, most agreed that the Houston Texans would prefer Reggie Bush, but that Young was likely going second or third to New Orleans or Tennessee, with the other taking USC quarterback Matt Leinart.

Now with Leinart's clear status as the top quarterback, and Cutler's meteoric rise, not to mention all the free agent movement, Young is being talked about as a Top 10 pick, or maybe lower.

So the question of the day is: Did Young make the right decision to enter the draft?

Absolutely.

This process that he's enduring is an indoctrination into the culture of the NFL. With high pay comes high stakes. Scouts, whose jobs depend on placing million-dollar bets correctly, will analyze everything from your bench press to the whether you look them in the eye. But it wouldn't be any different next year, if Young had the benefit of another year in college.

He didn't have anything left to prove as a college football player. He still must prove he has the skills and the intangibles to lead an NFL team. He has 37 more days to do so. They will be the longest 37 days of his life.

DJ

2006-03-21T19:30:00.000-06:00

Sweet 16 Predictions

With a couple of days to go until the Sweet 16 kicks off, I'm not going to analyze these any further. Here are the predictions, starting with the Thursday games:

Atlanta Regional
Duke over LSU -- A strong performance over George Washington is enough to make me believe the Blue Devils can last at least one more round. In a battle of speed vs. strength, I'm taking speed here and again later in the predictions. But the Tigers' toughness inside could wear the Blue Devils down for the regional final.

Texas over West Virginia -- Which Texas guards show up? The ones who looked like high schoolers against Penn or the ones who looked like pros against NC State? Look for the 'Horns to try to use their bench to counter a West Virginia team that moves exceptionally well but isn't very deep.

Oakland Regional
Memphis over Bradley -- In their first two games, the Tigers look like a team that has been reading their critics' words, and using them as motivation. Bradley, like conference mate Wichita State, is no fluke, but they'll face a team here with Kansas' talent and Pitt's heart.

UCLA over Gonzaga -- I'm just going to keep picking against the Bulldogs because they've done me in so many times before. But in all seriousness, UCLA held an offensive-minded Alabama team to just 59 points and has a pair of guards that can control the tempo.

Washington Regional
Connecticut over Washington -- I will go against the experts and say that this will be the easier of the two games that UConn plays this week. Their history has been that they get up for the tough teams and struggle against lesser-name opponents. You have to believe that if they beat Washington on Friday, some Connecticut players will already have their minds on Indy.

Wichita State over George Mason -- What a wonderful matchup to see these two teams playing for a chance to go to the Elite Eight. The inside battle between Paul Miller of Wichita State and Jai Lewis of George Mason could decide the game. I like Shockers' to avenge a (70-67) loss to the Patriots in February.

Minneapolis Regional
Villanova over Boston College -- Many are picking BC, but I still can't get past the image of UW-Milwaukee's dynamos running around and through the Eagles in the second round last year. Villanova's guards are too quick and too tough, and the Wildcats should move on if they shoot well.

Georgetown over Florida -- The Gators have been one of the most impressive teams in this tournament, but they are young and they showed inconsistency after starting 17-0. Again, tempo can win this game for the Hoyas. South Carolina slowed it down against Florida, beating the Gators twice in the regular season and nearly a third time in the SEC tournament.

DJ

2006-03-20T20:10:00.000-06:00

Spring Reading

Nothing signals the start of baseball season like the arrival of some good reading material, and this year promises to be one of the best crops in recent memory thanks to the diversity of subject matter and the quality of the authors. Obviously, the two Barry Bonds books will get the headlines when they arrive in stores, but if you're already sick of hearing about the giant creatine machine, you'll still have options for a lot of good reading.

A few titles to watch, some of which are out (marked with an asterisk) and others are arriving later in the spring:

"Clemente: The Passion and Grace of Baseball's Last Hero" by David Maraniss -- This is one I'll wait in line for. Maraniss is a fantastic writer, having penned a biography of Vince Lombardi that is my favorite sports book of all time. He's also written a solid biography of the pre-presidential Bill Clinton and a gripping Vietnam account. Here he takes on one of the most idolized baseball stars ever. If this book is anything like his Lombardi work, Clemente's legend will be done more than adequate justice.

"The Big Bam: The Life and Times of Babe Ruth" by Leigh Montville -- Montville wrote a great biography of Ted Williams and now tackles an even bigger subject, literally and figuratively. Ruth is already the subject of a formidable biography by Robert W. Creamer and a recent book by Jim Reisler on his breakout 1920 season, and he stands as a transcendent figure in the game's history. But Montville handled Williams well and I'm excited to see what he does with Ruth.

"Catfish, Yaz, And Hammerin' Hank: The Unforgettable Era that Transformed Baseball" by Phil Pepe* -- This book came out eight years ago under the title of "Talkin' Baseball" and is now rereleased in a larger format with more pictures and a DVD on the 1970s. They say that the era in which you grow up is always your Golden Age of the sport, and for me, it was the years in which the hair was long, the parks were concrete bowls, and the uniforms were ugly. Those aesthetics aside, the game itself was well balanced and the talent deep and formidable.

"When Chicago Ruled Baseball" by Bernard A. Weisberger -- To celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Cubs-White Sox World Series, this historian and professor tells the tale of when the city of Chicago was the capital of the baseball world. Now that the White Sox are back on top again, the work should be particularly timely. If nothing else, it should be a look back at a different and interesting time in American history.

"Black and Blue : The Golden Arm, the Robinson Boys, and the 1966 World Series That Stunned America" by Tom Adelman* -- Adelman wrote a fascinating account of the 1975 season called "The Long Ball," in which he covered in great detail one of the best World Series in history. This time he takes on a less competitive, but just as remarkable series between Baltimore and Los Angeles. The Dodgers failed the score in the series' final 33 innings and were swept by the Orioles. The year featured was also a time of great social change in America, as is often the backdrop for sports.

"Clearing the Bases : Juiced Players, Monster Salaries, Sham Records, and a Hall of Famer's Search for the Soul of Baseball" by Mike Schmidt with Glen Waggoner* -- This one interests me as a fan of the Phillies and Schmidt growing up. Schmidt was always careful to protect his image, which often was perceived as ambivalence and earned him scores of boos from the merciless Philadelphia fans. So it will be intriguing to see how much of his own soul he bares as he searches for the soul of the game he played so well.

"Baseball Between the Numbers" by the Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts* -- The folks from Baseball Prospectus, writers of the best stats-oriented baseball book since the Bill James Baseball Abstract series, take a look at multiple areas of the game through their prism. Essays cover topics as diverse as the four-man rotation, the overrating of RBIs, the impact of salaries on ticket prices, and the economic effect of new stadiums. Perhaps they might want to choose a cover subject other than Bonds (who merits his own essay in the introduction) when the book goes to paperback. (Speaking of James, he's the subject of yet another new book.)

"Shades of Glory : The Negro Leagues & the Story of African-American Baseball" by Jules Tygiel and Lawrence D. Hogan* -- The Negro Leagues are one of the forgotten eras in baseball history, thanks to the efforts of a team of historians and the wonderful stories of should-be Hall of Famer Buck O'Neil. The Hall is the driving force behind this history of African-American baseball, thanks to a $250,000 grant from Major League Baseball for research on the Negro Leagues and black baseball in general. Its publication coincided with the election of 17 players and benefactors from the Negro Leagues history.

"The Best of Baseball Digest : The Greatest Players, The Greatest Games, the Greatest Writers from the Game's Most Exciting Years" by John Kuenster -- It just hit me as I was typing this. Does every nonfiction book have to have a colon in its title? In any case, who didn't look forward to reading Baseball Digest as a kid? The articles, player profiles, stats, trivia, and my personal favorite section: The Game I'll Never Forget, made it a quick and enjoyable read. Kuenster has been editor of the publication since 1969 and he selects articles dating back to the 1940s. (The magazine began publication in 1942.)

Red Legs and Black Sox : Edd Roush and the Untold Story of the 1919 World Series by Susan Dellinger* -- While "Eight Men Out" is a terrific account of the Black Sox scandal, this looks like a wonderful addition to the subject matter, as it is written by the granddaughter of the Reds' Edd Roush, a Hall of Famer. Dellinger probes not only the White Sox behavior but that of the Reds players and their own association with gamblers as well as the leagues' association with shady activities.

"In the Best Interests of Baseball: The Revolutionary Reign of Bud Selig" by Andrew Zimbalist* -- The book examines Selig's reign in light of other commissioners and the nature of the office itself. Zimbalist is an economics professor who has written several previous books about the game, so his arguments would likely focus on the economic impact Selig's decisions have had on the game. While it is true that Selig has presided over a period of economic expansion, one senses that his body of work may be judged on how he handles the Bonds case.

"The Only Game in Town: Baseball Stars of the 1930s and 1940s Talk About the Game They Loved" by Fay Vincent -- Speaking of commissioners, Vincent has spent his time since vacating the office interviewing many players of the past and presents his first volume in an oral history of the game. This volume will include interviews with Dom DiMaggio, Larry Doby, Bob Feller, Johnny Pesky and O'Neil, whose chapter would probably be worth the value of the book alone.

And of course, there's Bonds:
"Game of Shadows : Barry Bonds, BALCO, and the Steroids Scandal that Rocked Professional Sports" by Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams

"Love Me, Hate Me : Barry Bonds and the Making of an Antihero" by Jeff Pearlman

Enjoy.

DJ

2006-03-19T20:30:00.000-06:00

Home of the Braves is the Sweet 16

Hero of the Second Round: Patrick O’Bryant, Bradley. The luck of the Irish didn’t run out on St. Patrick’s Day for O’Bryant. He scored 28 points in the Braves’ second-round upset of Pittsburgh, including a perfect six-for-six from the free-throw line in the final 2:12. O’Bryant plays as if he’s just realizing that he’s 7-feet tall and beginning to discover his talent. It was in full bloom on Sunday.

Goat of the Second Round: NC State’s 3-point shooters. You can’t run the Princeton offense very well when you shoot 3-for-22 from behind the arc. Texas scores an impressive win Sunday after a shaky first-round victory.

Game of the Second Round: LSU’s 58-57 victory over Texas A&M on Saturday. Darrel Mitchell’s game-winner followed Acie Law’s jumper that had given the Aggies a two-point lead. This one was a battle on both ends of the floor.

Other Notes: UCLA held off Alabama despite shooting an atrocious 5-for-13 from the line. … Villanova never trailed against Arizona on Sunday and still only won by four points. … Gonzaga made the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2001 after three straight appearances between 1999 and 2001.

Conference Roundup: That sucking sound is the air coming out of the Big Ten. After having the second-most bids in the tournament, the conference is shut out of the Sweet 16. Of its six teams, three lost in the first round, and four lost to lower-seeded teams. You could argue that only Indiana redeemed itself, getting to the second round and playing Gonzaga tough. Meanwhile, the Missouri Valley vindicated itself by placing two of its four teams into the Sweet 16, beating two Big East teams, a Big 12 team and an SEC team to get there. Even Billy Packer conceded the performance of the mid-majors, when he pointed out that the Valley and the Colonial leagues had as many teams in the Sweet 16 (three) as the ACC and Big 12.

The full tally: Big East 4, Pac 10 2, ACC 2, SEC 2, Missouri Valley 2, Big 12 1, Conference USA 1, West Coast 1, Colonial 1. In other words, mid-majors snagged five of the 16 spots.

Player to Watch: Marcus Williams, Connecticut. It’s becoming abundantly clear that the Huskies look to Williams when the game is on the line. The knock on Connecticut has been the lack of a step-up player, but Williams was that guy in victories over Albany and Kentucky. In a Washington bracket that has lost seeds 2, 3, and 4, the Huskies are in the driver’s seat to get to Indianapolis, and Williams is the one with the keys.

Game to Watch: Several good ones on tap for Thursday and Friday. Two that look particularly appealing are Gonzaga-UCLA and Villanova-Boston College. The Bruins, traditionally a high-scoring team, are built around defense this year, and it will be interesting to see what they try to do to stop Adam Morrison. ‘Nova and BC have a history from the Eagles’ days in the Big East, and the Wildcats had trouble with Arizona’s front line Sunday. BC’s is even better, though the Eagles may not have quite the team speed that Arizona did.

2006-03-18T09:25:00.000-06:00

Day Two recap and second round predictions

The second day of the NCAA tournament brought our biggest upset and several more near misses. It's clear after the first round that the gap between the top teams and the lowest seeds in this event continues to narrow. While all four No. 1 seeds survived, the day is closer when a No. 16 will finally pull the upset in the first round.

A quick Day Two recap before we move on to second-round picks:

Hero of the Day: Jermaine Wallace, Northwestern State. How can it be anyone else? He made the shot that kids dream about on the driveways and playgrounds of America. Honorable mention to Marcus Williams, UConn's point guard, for leading the Huskies back from the brink of an ignominious upset.

Goat of the Day: Shannon Brown, Michigan State. The junior scored five points on 2-for-11 shooting and fouled out. The Spartans were unusually listless for a tournament game and bowed to George Mason just a year after reaching the Final Four.

Game of the Day: Northwestern State's upset of Iowa. Not only did you have Wallace's shot, but Adam Haluska got off as good a shot as one can expect in five-tenths of a second to nearly steal it back for the Hawkeyes. The Demons also came back from 17 down in the final nine minutes.

Conference Roundup: The Big East made its statement on Friday, winning all five games. Top seeds Villanova and Connecticut struggled, but West Virginia and Pittsburgh were very impressive, and Georgetown recovered nicely in the second half to beat Northern Iowa. The Big Ten, on the other hand, dropped three of four games. Ohio State struggled but beat Davidson; Iowa blew the second-half lead; Michigan State never looked interested against Mason; and Wisconsin was blown out by Arizona. The mid-majors and low-majors also performed nicely -- Mason, Bradley and Bucknell got through to the second round.

Player to Watch: Kevin Pittsnogle, West Virginia. Here we go again. The Mountaineers must get past Northwestern State to set up a possible rematch with Texas, who beat them by one point in November. Pittsnogle dropped 18 on a tough Southern Illinois team.

Game to Watch: NC State-Texas. Penn stayed with the Longhorns the whole way, and the Wolfpack runs the same type of slowdown offense that appeared to frustrate Texas on Friday night. The game is in Dallas, which favors Texas, but the 'Horns will need to keep their poise.

The second round is often where the stars of the first two days fall back to earth. Cinderella teams can win a game, but the two-day turnaround to the second game often destroys a team that expended everything it had to pull a first-round upset. But usually one or two teams get through to the Sweet 16. Here are my predictions on who those will be:

Washington Regional
UConn over Kentucky
Illinois over Washington
George Mason over UNC
Wichita State over Tennessee
Comments: Somehow I think Jim Calhoun will get his team's attention, and they won't look past Kentucky the way the Huskies did against Albany. ... I'm going with the Illini's experience against an athletic Washington team that was very impressive in Round 1. ... George Mason, with Tony Skinn back, upsets the young Tar Heels, who barely survived Murray State. ... Obviously I'm still not sold on Tennessee -- I was expecting the Shockers to play Winthrop in this round.

Atlanta Regional
Duke over George Washington
LSU over Texas A&M
West Virginia over Northwestern State
Texas over NC State
Comments: Duke will handle the Colonials, but the road is looking tougher ahead for the Blue Devils. ... LSU-A&M features a great frontcourt matchup between Glen Davis and Joseph Jones and two solid point guards in Darrel Mitchell and Acie Law. ... West Virginia stops the Demons' Cinderella run. ... The Longhorns, as mentioned before, need to learn from what they did wrong against Penn to beat the Wolfpack.

Minneapolis Regional
Villanova over Arizona
BC over Montana
Florida over UW-Milwaukee
Ohio State over Georgetown
Comments: Villanova needs to wake up because Arizona played as well as any first-round team. ... BC might be primed for a long run after surviving Pacific. ... Florida and UWM play the same style but the Gators have better athletes. ... Ohio State and Georgetown looks like a game that could go to the wire.

Oakland Regional
Memphis over Bucknell
Pittsburgh over Bradley
Indiana over Gonzaga
UCLA over Alabama
Comments: The Bison and Braves see their terrific seasons end against formidable foes. ... IU-Gonzaga should be a track meet. Can Morrison and Batista stop Hoosiers' big man Marco Killingsworth? ... UCLA looked as good as any team in Round One.

DJ

2006-03-17T16:49:00.000-06:00

A bonafide upset

Northwestern State over Iowa was the first classic March Madness upset of the tournament. The double-digit seeds that won yesterday included a 10-seed (Alabama), a team that had won two games in the tournament last year (UW-Milwaukee), a team that finished fourth in a power conference (Texas A&M) and a team that was facing its former conference rival (Montana).

The Demons upset of the Hawkeyes was one for the ages. Coming into the tournament, no one knew much about Northwestern State. We knew they were a 14 seed, and we could maybe surmise that they were located in a state and likely in the northwestern portion of it. But after their victory Friday we were all searching for their Web site to find out where they are: Natchitoches, Louisiana.

And we recognize that the Demons are pretty good, and extremely resilient. Down 17 in the second half, they fought back against the Hawkeyes and began hitting 3-pointers. The last came with .5 left on the clock, when Jermaine Wallace drilled a shot from the corner as he was falling backward. This shot was even better than the one Chris Lofton hit for Tennessee yesterday, and that's saying something.

Wallace had a man in his face and landed on his butt out of bounds. The whole team was so surprised it went in that they actually let Iowa get off a decent shot at the horn.

SI.com's Luke Winn is calling it the second-best, first-round buzzer beater since 1990, behind only Bryce Drew's "Pacer" play for Valpo to beat Ole Miss in 1998 (and it will take a lot to knock that one out of the top spot).

Congratulations to the Demons for their upset and for reminding us once again why we love this so much.

In other games, the Big East is back, winning three times (West Virginia in impressive fashion, Villanova sluggishly, and Georgetown with a second-half rally). And the Missouri Valley was the loser in two of those. Bradley will try to salvage a split for the conference tonight against Kansas.

And some sad news from the sport. Ray Meyer, the former DePaul coach, passed away at age 92. Meyer led DePaul teams to the Final Four 36 years apart, in 1943 and 1979 and was head coach there for 42 years.

Late in his career, DePaul became one of those teams that seemed snake-bitten in the NCAA tournament. Seven straight 20-win seasons between 1978 and 1984 yielded just the one Final Four trip, and some shocking early-round upsets to UCLA, St. Joe's and Boston College in consecutive years.

Meyer never won an NCAA championship, but he was a winner (724-354 lifetime), and a great man. May he rest in peace.

DJ

2006-03-17T09:30:00.000-06:00

Close, but no cigar

That was the theme of Day 1 of the NCAA tournament. Double-digit seeds never had so many chances to win in one day as they did Thursday, but in the end, only UW-Milwaukee, Montana, Texas A&M and Alabama did. The Tide, taking a 7-10 game, is a mild upset winner at best.

Pacific took Boston College to double-overtime. Winthrop fell to Tennessee on a ridiculous shot by Chris Lofton. San Diego State let a late lead slip away against Indiana. And Xavier nearly extended Gonzaga's misery as a high seed, but Adam Morrison carried the Bulldogs to victory.

Some thoughts:

Hero of the Day: Jean Felix, Alabama -- I saw what Morrison did, but it was to be expected from him. Felix's 31 points and 8-for-11 shooting from behind the arc is the stuff tournament dreams are made of.

Goat of the Day: Gerry McNamara, Syracuse -- I hate to dump on him, because without him Syracuse wouldn't have made the tournament. That was validated last night with him playing hurt and ineffective. But ZERO field goals? It's a sign of McNamara's game. He's a long-range shooter, and a great one. But when the legs aren't there to shoot the jumper, he doesn't have a lot of other moves at his disposal. Note to Jim Boeheim: I said goat of the DAY. I'm still a fan of the kid.

Game of the Day: Lots of choices, but it has to be BC-Pacific. The momentum swings in the final five minutes of regulation and the two overtimes were incredible. It's the kind of first-round survival that can motivate a team, and I don't think BC needed to motivated in the first place. But GW-UNCW, Gonzaga-Xavier, Tennessee-Winthrop and Indiana-SDSU were terrific, too.

Conference Roundup: The SEC starts an impressive 4-0. The ACC, Pac 10, and Big Ten are all 2-0. The vaunted Big East? 0-3. Though they have two No. 1 seeds playing today, it's not a stretch to think that the nation's deepest conference could be 2-6 by Saturday morning.

Player to Watch: Morrison. He's the type of player that can carry a team a long way, and he showed why last night.

Second-Round Game to Watch: Gonzaga-Indiana. Mike Davis lives to coach another day.

On to Day Two. Not a lot of upsets jumping out at me, but watch out for the Missouri Valley. Wichita State had a nice debut in thrashing Seton Hall. Now two more Valley teams take on the Big East: Southern Illinois vs. West Virginia and Northern Iowa vs. Georgetown. Add Bradley and 7-footer Patrick O'Bryant going up against a young Kansas team, and you have the potential for the kind of breakout day a mid-major conference needs.

DJ

2006-03-17T08:31:00.000-06:00

It's about to get VERY interesting

Word is the local football team will be signing Terrell Owens in the near future. Having moved here just six months ago, my investment is already paying off. It's going to be a fun season to sit back, watch and laugh.

Talk radio is aflutter with excitement. Many fans are calling in, overjoyed that the Cowboys might have the game-breaking wide receiver who can make the difference for them this year. The personality issues? Water under the bridge. I'm hearing things from the simple: "He can help us win," to the somewhat far-fetched: "We're only one player away and he's that player," to the downright ridiculous: "If T.O. wrecks the locker room, it was meant to be wrecked anyway."

Actually, I think Terrell Owens will be relatively quiet this year. During his first year in Philadelphia, he did everything that was asked of him. In fact he went beyond that -- he worked his way back from a serious ankle injury late in the season to play (and play well) in the Super Bowl. Eagles fans probably don't want me to remind them what happened next.

A few years ago, I referred to Randy Moss as the ultimate siren, because his talent made him attractive to any team looking for a difference-maker, but his personality and seeming ambivalence at times on the field made him a locker-room nightmare. Owens has far exceeded Moss in the past two years.

Owens complicates the picture even more. Not only is he a wonderful player, but he has kept his name out of the police blotters. There are no allegations of drug use or other improprieties in the newspapers. No, Owens simply ruins football franchises. He is the screaming child who bellyaches until he gets dessert, then when his parents give in, he finds something else to scream for.

I wouldn't want to be Drew Bledsoe right now. Owens has a history of making quarterbacks lives more miserable than anyone since Lawrence Taylor. He called Jeff Garcia gay and Donovan McNabb soft. (How funny that they're both on the same team now. Imagine those conversations.)

Oh, and coaches? Owens is a big fan of those. Just as long as they don't tell him what to do. Bill Parcells loved Keyshawn Johnson, who has a history of petulance, but Keyshawn also is a locker room leader and a warrior on the field. Owens is neither.

But, if he behaves, Owens can help the Cowboys win. They haven't won a playoff game since 1996, and fans are starved for success in a city that lives and dies with its football team.

For a franchise with the history and expectations of the Cowboys, the resources of a maverick owner often must be spent gambling. Jerry Jones has obviously decided to hit the track tonight. He'll worry about paying the debt later.

DJ

2006-03-16T15:54:00.000-06:00

A good start for the mid-majors

Are you believers now, Jim and Billy? (Sorry but these guys deserved to get ripped for their outburst.)

Wichita State soundly defeats a Big East team, proof that Seton Hall probably should have been left out of the field in place of fellow Big East team Cincinnati. UW-Milwaukee makes it two years in a row by beating Oklahoma. They've now knocked off Big East, SEC and Big 12 teams in the past two years. And Pacific nearly makes it three in a row by taking Boston College to double overtime.

There's only one reason CBS doesn't want the little guys in the field. They fear that early round upsets makes the later round matchups less appealing. Here's a Sportsline columnist telling us once again that the high seeds winning is what we all want.

I'll take the early-round upset any time, even if it means we see a rout later. With the parity in college basketball, one of these years we won't.

DJ

2006-03-16T08:46:00.000-06:00

To Read Today

You can get the stats and breakdowns of all 32 first-round matchups in many places, but where can you get the stories behind the stories? Deadspin, of course.

Check out Will and friends' tournament guide, featuring things you didn't know about the teams.

Another good story is Pat Forde's best and worst-case scenarios for each team.

DJ

2006-03-15T19:47:00.000-06:00

How we got here: Five magical days

So college basketball fans have arrived again at our favorite day of the year. All the speculation is over, the picks have been turned in, and the commentators can finally begin to discuss actual games. By the end of today, the field of 64 will be trimmed to 48, then to 32 tomorrow, then to 16 by the end of the weekend. We die-hards know it doesn't get any better than these next four days.

And here are five days that got us to March 16, 2006, that made us the die-hard fans we are, in chronological order:

1) March 26, 1979 -- If March Madness were a human, this would be the date on its birth certificate. This was the day that the tournament became an event and the sport joined our national consciousness. No big domed stadiums for this game. It was played at a college arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. There, Michigan State defeated Indiana State 75-64 to win the national championship. Magic Johnson and Larry Bird staged a duel for the ages, with Johnson's powerhouse Spartans from East Lansing defeating Bird's undefeated but underdog Sycamores from Terre Haute. The game earned the highest TV ratings in NCAA history, and everyone who watched it knew we were looking at the future and the transformation of pro basketball, to be led by these two giants of the game (a third, Michael Jordan, would have his finals moment three years later). We loved Magic for his skill and artistry on the court and his smile off it; we loved Bird for his unique vision and sixth sense for the game. They played contrasting styles with only one element in common. Both knew how to beat you. Only one of them could win on this night, but in the end, these two future NBA champions made us all winners.

2) March 14, 1981 -- Every college fan should have celebrated the 25th anniversary of this historic day, when the tournament's top two seeds, DePaul and Oregon State, and defending champion Louisville were all eliminated in the second round. It's clearly the first two rounds, where you have multiple games competing for your attention and the network manically switches back and forth to keep you updated, that make this tournament the most special. It's when you see the teams that you haven't heard of, that you couldn't even find on a map, take their shot at glory. This isn't a best-of-seven; the winner moves on and the loser is out. And if an underdog can beat a top seed, it will be like their own national championship. Never was that more apparent than when St. Joe's upset DePaul 49-48 and, minutes later, Kansas State beat Oregon State 50-48. (Remember THIS Sports Illustrated cover?) Earlier in the day, Arkansas' U.S. Reed had taken out the champs with a halfcourt shot at the buzzer, 74-73. While none of the victors could be considered small-time schools, in a 48-team field, these were Davids slaying Goliaths, and for those that watched, it could hardly get any better.

3) April 4, 1983 and April 1, 1985 (TIE) -- The early-round upset is like a great salad or appetizer. The upset in the final is the most scrumptious dessert. And when North Carolina State took out Houston, 54-52, and Villanova stunned Georgetown, 66-64, they completed magical runs through the tournament and carried college basketball fans on our backs with them. Both coached by colorful Italians that you would have invited into your homes for dinner, and led by hard-working seniors who often played second-fiddle to conference rivals, the Wolfpack and Wildcats won our hearts along with the games. We didn't notice them eke out opening-round wins, over Pepperdine and Dayton, respectively. We started to watch after second-round upsets of UNLV and Michigan. We had joined the bandwagon by the time they dispatched titans Virginia and North Carolina to get to the Final Four. We never expected them to finish the job, given the virtual coronations awaiting their finals opponents. But in the end, Jim Valvano dashed around the Albuquerque court searching for someone to hug, and Rollie Massimino gathered his staff in a group embrace in Lexington while long-time trainer Jake Nevin, stricken with ALS, just grinned from his nearby wheelchair. Kansas completed the 1980s trinity of major upsets by beating Oklahoma in 1988, and by then, we were practically expecting it.
(Footnote: Villanova won their title against the first-ever 64-team field, which also paved the way for these fun little office pools we all don't want to admit we're in.)

4) March 18, 1990 -- Most fans without an allegiance pull for the underdog, particularly in college basketball. But the tournament hasn't had a little guy as beloved as Loyola Marymount. This wasn't a lower seed that had just happened to come from a major conference. This was a previously obscure school from Los Angeles, with two outstanding players -- one of whom was taken from them tragically, 11 days before the start of the tournament. When Hank Gathers collapsed and died during the West Coast Conference tournament semifinals on March 4, it not only ended the life of a promising basketball talent, it left his team in uncertain shape for the NCAA tournament. Gathers and teammate Bo Kimble had lifted the Lions into the nation's elite, playing a manic style of full-court pressing and 3-point gunning that was both fun and effective. Ranked in the Top 20 for most of the year, Loyola was dropped to an 11th seed in the West region by the loss of Gathers, a wonderful post player who complemented Kimble and his teammates' outside games. Kimble paid tribute to his friend by shooting (and making) his first free throw left-handed in every game, starting with the Lions' opening-round win over New Mexico State. Then they took the court against defending champion Michigan in the second round, exactly two weeks after Gathers' death. Kimble made the free throw again, and that was just one of many Lions shots to find the net that day. Loyola made a record 21 3s, 11 by Jeff Fryer, in a high-octane 149-115 victory that will likely always hold the tournament record for most points. The Lions then beat Alabama before losing to eventual champion UNLV in the Elite Eight. No one would care if they had busted our brackets.

5) April 6, 1992 and April 5, 1993 (TIE) -- The Wolverines were back in the national picture two years later. Steve Fisher, who had led Michigan to an unexpected title as an interim coach in 1989, had now recruited the most famous college basketball class in history. Maybe they weren't the best recruiting class ever, but no one transcended the game like the Fab Five of Chris Webber, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jimmy King and Ray Jackson. The quintet started the 1992 final against Duke as freshmen, and the 1993 final against North Carolina. They lost both times, but their playground swagger and their knee-length shorts became staples of the college game, for better or worse. Even the most fundamental-loving fan among us still gets a little excited when we see an athletic, creative play, and no group played the game with more flair than these five. Both times they faced veteran teams coached by men who favored a bit more structure in their teams, and the contrasts made for two compelling finals. The Fab Five hung with Duke for a little more than a half, before wearing down as the Devils marched to their second consecutive title, 71-51. The second time around, Michigan had UNC on the ropes, but the Tar Heels took a late 73-71 lead behind Donald Williams' shooting. We all can still visualize what happened next: Webber dribbling the ball up court, dribbling into the corner, realizing he's trapped, and calling a time out. But his team has none. Technical foul. The Heels make the free throws and win 77-71. The fundamentalists snicker. Didn't Webber know his team was out of time outs? Well, maybe in the back of his mind, but on this stage, it can be hard to think the game. Many before and since have failed, too. When Webber left for the NBA at the end of his sophomore year, it was the end of one era, and the beginning of another. For better or worse.

OK, so I've cheated and picked seven days. If you asked me to list my 10 most memorable tournament games, I'd give you 12. Or 15. Last year alone produced some of the best basketball we've seen. And I'm sure I'll have a few games to add to the list again.

The point is: It's here. It's the day we get ready for all year. Come noon Thursday, we'll be watching. Jimmy V, Jake and Hank will be, too.

DJ

2006-03-15T19:41:00.000-06:00

My bracket

A few changes from my initial picks (though it's never wise to do that). Namely, I took UCLA in the Oakland region and Texas in the Atlanta region. I still believe that someone will take out Duke before the Final Four, and Texas has the revenge factor in play. Memphis can get to Indy, but if there's a school that will take them out, it's one that can play defense and frustrate their young players. That's the Bruins. Given Allan Ray's seemingly clean bill of health, I'm sticking with 'Nova.

2006-03-14T20:40:00.000-06:00

First-round picks

Of course I'll be entering a few of those online pools where you pick all the teams in your brackets right up until the final. But on here I want to go round-by-round as the games happen, just to be able to see how much difference there is in having the luxury of knowing the matchups each round.

My fiancee, who readers of this blog last heard from in January when she said of Nick Harper's wife, "You don't stab someone the day before a big game!" came up with another prescient point on Sunday night. She asked why all the pools require you to pick the entire tournament bracket at once, because "someone could get hurt or could get caught with a stripper" during the tournament.

Fair point. So in the event that an injury or an indiscretion hampers a team from playing at full strength, I'll present my picks for the first round only.

Washington Regional
UConn over Albany
Kentucky over UAB
Utah State over Washington
Illinois over Air Force
Michigan State over George Mason
North Carolina over Murray State
Wichita State over Seton Hall
Winthrop over Tennessee
Comments: I like Kentucky to get back at UAB for their early upset two years ago ... Utah State plays great defense and shoots the ball well ... Illinois and Michigan State get the nod against two of the shakiest at-large entries ... Seton Hall is too streaky to get by a solid Missouri Valley team ... By now, the Vols have to be incredibly upset to be hearing critics say they were seeded too high, but I don't like a team who plays mad ... UConn and UNC should roll.

Atlanta Regional
Duke over Southern
UNC-Wilmington over George Washington
Syracuse over Texas A&M
Iona over LSU
West Virginia over Southern Illinois
Iowa over Northwestern State
NC State over Cal
Texas over Penn
Comments: It's a far fall for the Colonials, but without a healthy Pops they're in trouble against a well-schooled Seahawks squad ... Syracuse won't go out in the first round two years in a row ... Every year someone's chic Final Four pick goes out early, and I'm picking it to be LSU in my upset special ... I'm sticking with WVU one more time but they've got a battle on their hands ... Northwestern State is a trendy pick but I think Iowa has the experience to go a long way ... Cal doesn't have a good nonconference win, and NC State plays very disciplined ... Duke and Texas are clear favorites.

Minneapolis Regional
Villanova over Monmouth
Wisconsin over Arizona
Montana over Nevada
BC over Pacific
UW-Milwaukee over Oklahoma
Florida over S. Alabama
Georgetown over Northern Iowa
Ohio State over Davidson
Comments: The hardest region to pick even in Round 1 ... See my NC State pick for the Wisconsin rationale ... Montana pulls the upset because I don't like Nick Fazekas' defensive play ... UWM has another upset in it, but that's all ... Florida vs. South Alabama is like looking in the mirror with their up-tempo styles and Kentucky-trained coaches ... Northern Iowa has great non-conference wins but Georgetown has the best of all (Duke) ... Villanova, BC and Ohio State stay true to form.

Oakland Regional
Memphis over Oral Roberts
Bucknell over Arkansas
Pitt over Kent State
Kansas over Bradley
San Diego State over Indiana
Xavier over Gonzaga
Marquette over Alabama
UCLA over Belmont
Comments: No, a No. 16 won't beat a No. 1 this year ... Bucknell's savvy overcomes the 'Hogs virtual home-court advantage ... Pitt and KU carry over momentum from conference tournaments ... SDSU is an underrated team and no one knows how Indiana will play in Coach Davis' final tournament with them ... Boy, have I fallen off the 'Zags bandwagon -- watch them make a huge run this year (if they can find a defense) ... Marquette and Alabama both played tough schedules, but I like Steve Novak to score big in this game ... UCLA should roll.

Full bracket predictions posted tomorrow, then round-by-round picks as the tournament goes on.

DJ

2006-03-14T20:35:00.000-06:00

Kudos to Dave Calloway

Congratulations to Monmouth for their 71-49 victory over Hampton, making me officially 0-1 in my tournament picks. Special kudos to their coach Dave Calloway, who in his postgame comments to Erin Andrews, referred to the game three times as the "play-in game," which it is, then went out of his way to praise his opponent and cite his own team's unfair advantage.

The Pirates had to play four games in four days, concluding with their upset win over Delaware State in the MEAC final on Saturday. Monmouth, meanwhile, took out Fairleigh Dickinson on Wednesday night in the final of the NEC tournament. Calloway was gracious to point out that his team was able to rest longer and then congratulated Hampton for making the NCAA tournament. It's nice to see a coach call it like it is.

DJ

2006-03-13T21:33:00.000-06:00

The Play-In Game

Forget that the NCAA calls this the “opening round” game. The loser of the Tuesday night game between the Monmouth Hawks and the Hampton Pirates won’t get to experience what the winner and 63 other teams go through. Those teams get to join seven of their peers at a subregional site, in arenas packed with fans and media, and play before a network television audience.

God bless the people of Dayton, Ohio, which has hosted this game since the NCAA instituted it in 2001. Monmouth and Hampton will, I’m sure, get the best treatment their fans have to offer. Dayton is a great basketball town, and the Oregon District certainly a nice diversion, but it won’t have the same atmosphere or draw as the subregional sites. (Coincidentally, one of those sites this year is Dayton – though the winner of this game will travel to Philadelphia to meet Villanova.) The game is on cable, and ESPN doesn’t have a history of sending its top announcing tandems to the game.

A little history about this game: The NCAA added a 65^th tournament team in 2001, when the Mountain West and Western Athletic Conferences were formed by the split of the old WAC. Rather than take away an at-large bid from a presumably more marquee school, they expanded the field to 65 and created this awkward arrangement in which all 65 teams technically qualify for the tournament but the two deemed the weakest have to play an elimination game.

The concept is OK, but the wrong two teams are in the game. Instead, the NCAA should have the last two at-large teams play their way in. First, it would have two more recognizable teams. Second, it would be fair to the kids from these smaller schools whose dream is just to make it to the NCAAs. They deserve to see what all the hype and hysteria is about. If Air Force, supposedly the last team into the field, wanted to complain about having to meet, say, Bradley in Dayton on Tuesday night, I’d have three letters for them: N-I-T. The Falcons should have Craig Littlepage’s picture emblazoned on their jerseys after making the field at all.

So while the rest of the college basketball world might forget about these two teams, I won’t. Here’s a quick capsule on each of them:

Hampton Pirates (16-15, champions of the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference). Located in Hampton, Virginia.

This is the third NCAA appearance for the Pirates, who posted one of the biggest upsets in NCAA history, in terms of seeding. As the 15^th seed in 2001, they shocked No. 2 Iowa State, 58-57, one of only four times a No. 15 has won a tournament game. The postgame scene of coach Steve Merfeld being lifted, spread-eagle, by one of his players is an image that defines how special it is when schools such as Hampton get to play the top teams. Merfeld has moved on to Evansville, and the Pirates are now coached by Bobby Collins. Their top scorer is forward Jaz Cowan (13.1 points per game), a transfer from George Washington. The Colonials might wish he was still there, given the injury to their own big man, Pops Mensah-Bonsu.

Monmouth Hawks (18-14, champions of the Northeast Conference). Located in West Long Branch, New Jersey.

Monmouth has an NCAA tournament history as well, though it isn’t as successful as Hampton’s. The Hawks last made the field in 2004, losing in the first round to Mississippi State. They also fell in their other two NCAA appearances, to Duke in 2001 and to Marquette in 1996. Monmouth is coached by one of its alumni, Dave Calloway, who has turned the program around in his nine years there. The Hawks won five games in his first full season, 1998-99, after winning four the previous year when Calloway took over in midseason as interim coach. They’ve now won 109 games in the past six years. Monmouth is led in scoring by two juniors, Dejan Delic (12.2 ppg) and Marques Alston (12.0 ppg), and also has one of the field’s tallest players, the aptly named John Bunch at 7-foot-2.

Other interesting facts about this game: The winner of the first play-in game was Northwestern State, which beat Winthrop. Both teams are now chic picks for upsets in the first round – with the Demons facing Iowa and the Eagles going against Tennessee. Northwestern State is also the only team to win this game after entering it with a winning record. Siena, UNC-Asheville, Florida A&M, and Oakland have won the last four play-in games after compiling below-.500 records.

Neither of these teams has a losing record, but I’ll follow the trend and go with the school with the worse record. The pick here is Hampton. And I’d pick them to beat Air Force, too.

Play-In Game History

2006: Monmouth vs. Hampton

2005: Oakland 79, Alabama A&M 69

2004: Florida A&M 72, Lehigh 57

2003: UNC-Asheville 92, Texas Southern 84

2002: Siena 81, Alcorn State 77

2001: Northwestern State 71, Winthrop 67

2006-03-12T21:03:00.000-06:00

It’s that time of year again

Time for March Madness. Time to look at the brackets, think you know what you’re talking about, then watch some basketball neophyte clean house in the office pool because they pick teams that have cool names.

It’s always difficult to make predictions on the night the pairings come out, but here’s a gut reaction after looking at the brackets for the first time and working through them a bit.

Before I discuss the regions from east to west, here’s a sure-fire award for Jim Nantz as Ogre of the Year. After looking at the brackets, Nantz proceeded to lash out at tournament selection committee chairman Craig Littlepage for not putting enough teams from the power conferences into the bracket.

Attaboy, Jim. Way to show how much basketball you watch. Nantz, who just finished calling NFL football games in late January and is probably looking past the whole tournament so he can scratch Hootie Johnson’s back at the Masters, maybe has called 10 college basketball games this year. And I’m guessing none of those games featured members of the Missouri Valley or the Colonial Athletic Association. And how about Billy Packer announcing teams from the Minneapolis bracket before CBS did? The Final Four is best watched with the mute button on if these guys are going to keep up this act. Give me Dick Vitale, who for all his "flat-out, sensational" hyperbole, still shows he knows something about a mid-major team like UAB besides how to spell it.

OK, I’m past that. Let’s move on to the regions.

Washington Region

The Top Seed: UConn – Still the best team in the country when they’re engaged and interested. After losing in the Big East quarterfinals, here’s betting they will be. Their frontcourt is the best in the country, and when Denham Brown and Rashad Anderson are making outside shots, they can’t be stopped.

Who Can Beat Them: Illinois – A well-coached team that has key players back from last year’s runner-up and a terrific leader in Dee Brown. Michigan State – Another team that seems to play in only high and low gear. Tom Izzo took them to the Final Four last year and the Elite Eight in 2003 from a five seed and a seven seed, respectively. North Carolina – Once their freshmen learned how to play the game, my, did they play it well. Roy Williams has the monkey off his back and his team will play loose.

Best First-Round Games: Kentucky vs. UAB – The Blazers upset the No. 1 seeded Wildcats in the second round two years ago. Wichita St. vs. Seton Hall – The classic battle of a good team from a mid-major conference and a middling team from a power conference. Tennessee vs. Winthrop – Bruce Pearl’s reputation (or his orange attire, a la Bruce Weber) must’ve gotten the Vols a No. 2 seed, because they haven’t played like it of late. The Eagles won’t be an easy out.

First-Round Upset: Utah State over Washington. The Huskies bowed out early in the Pac 10 Tournament. Meanwhile, the Aggies played their way into this tournament by taking Nevada to the wire in the WAC final. And their best shooter, Jaycee Carroll, wasn’t on his game. This could be the perennial No. 12 over a No. 5.

Bracket Champion: UConn – I just can’t pick anyone else, despite the Huskies inconsistency.

Atlanta Region

The Top Seed: Duke – So, the Blue Devils and J.J. Redick were tired. Through. Finished. Not so fast. They won their seventh ACC tournament championship in eight years and did it with Redick hitting the type of shots that make everyone love – or hate – him. They beat a very good Boston College team and they’re a deserving No. 1 overall seed.

Who Can Beat Them: Syracuse – Wouldn’t we all love a Redick-Gerry McNamara matchup in the Sweet 16? Iowa – A very disciplined, senior-dominated team led by a fellow Bob Knight disciple. Texas – Duke won the earlier matchup by 31, but the Longhorns play the physical style that could wear Duke out.

Best First-Round Games: George Washington vs. UNC-Wilmington – A curious 8-9 matchup because the Colonials were ranked in the Top 10 most of the season, but they must get healthy. The Seahawks came out of a very good mid-major conference and have great guards in T.J. Carter and John Goldsberry, and you know how I feel about guards in March. West Virginia vs. Southern Illinois – About three weeks ago I would have put the Mountaineers in the previous group, but they’d better get their act together and they’d better do it fast against a solid defensive team like the Salukis.

First-Round Upset: Iona over LSU – A senior-dominated Gaels team is led by Steve Burtt, the type of player who can put a team on his back in a first-round game. LSU needs Tyrus Thomas healthy and must take advantage of its size up front.

Bracket Champion: Iowa – Redick and Shelden Williams didn’t stick around four years for anything less than a Final Four. But watch the Hawkeyes, exactly the type of rugged Big 10 team (Michigan State 2005, Indiana 2002) that has taken the Blue Devils out before.

Minneapolis Region

The Top Seed: Villanova – The great mystery with the Wildcats is Allan Ray’s health. The good news is, after a horrifying injury, he has his vision back. ‘Nova will need his shooting and quickness in the most difficult bracket in the field. Fortunately, of all the top teams, Villanova displays the most consistent tenacity and effort. They’ve lost when they haven’t shot well. This is the team with the best chance of beating UConn – if they get to face them.

Who Can Beat Them: Boston College – Jay Wright couldn’t have enjoyed seeing the Eagles in his half of the bracket. BC showed Duke and the rest of the ACC how good they are. It’s a veteran team with a nasty streak, and it certainly knows Villanova well from its days in the Big East. Florida – Another inconsistent team but the Gators put it together to win the SEC Tournament and beat South Carolina after losing twice previously. ‘Nova beat them in the second round last year. Georgetown – The Hoyas potentially beating Villanova in an NCAA tourney upset? The world has been turned upside down. Georgetown is young but athletic. They’ve played ‘Nova (a 75-65 loss in Philadelphia) and they’ve beaten Duke. Ohio State – Before next year’s ballyhooed freshman class arrives, this senior class can send them a message. Kudos to Thad Matta for picking the Buckeyes up from the specter of probation and forging a Big Ten champion.

Best First-Round Game: Arizona vs. Wisconsin – Interesting battle between contrasting styles. Oklahoma vs. UW-Milwaukee – The Panthers wouldn’t surprise anyone with another trip to the Sweet 16.

First-Round Upset: UWM over Oklahoma. But also watch out for Montana over Nevada, if Nick Fazekas’ defense against Montana big man Andrew Strait is as bad as it was in the WAC title game. And if Florida isn’t ready, a deep South Alabama team could spring a surprise.

Bracket Champion: I’ve written more about this bracket because it could go about 10 different ways. Thus, a qualifying pick – Villanova moves on if Ray is healthy. If not, Ohio State goes from one Big Ten city to another for the Final Four.

Oakland Region

The Top Seed: Memphis – Say what you will about the Tigers waltzing through the remains of Conference USA. But they did everything asked of them – play a tough non-conference schedule, dominate their conference and win their conference tournament. Memphis practically played an NCAA tournament before 2006 was a week old – UW-Milwaukee, Alabama, UCLA, Duke, Gonzaga, Texas and Winthrop. Toss in a road win at Cincinnati and this young, athletic team is ready for its close-up.

Who Can Beat Them: Pittsburgh – A tenacious defensive team that tries to frustrate its opposition. Memphis is young and therefore susceptible to frustration in this setting. Kansas – Playing as well as any team right now and yearning to forget last year’s opening round loss to Bucknell. Gonzaga – The Bulldogs must prove that they can play in this tournament as a favorite. They’ve played their best as an underdog. But in Adam Morrison, they have Danny Manning with a bad mustache. UCLA – Again, go with the guards. Jordan Farmar and Arron Afflalo are a formidable tandem.

Best First-Round Game: Arkansas vs. Bucknell – The Razorbacks get a short trip to Dallas. The Bison are looking for another first-round upset. The winner has a decent chance to beat Memphis. Marquette vs. Alabama – The Tide played one of the toughest non-conference schedules, and the Golden Eagles showed coming up with a school nickname was tougher than playing in the Big East.

First-Round Upset: San Diego State over Indiana – The Hoosiers will play win-one-for-Mike Davis, but the Aztecs have frontcourt players, in Mohamed Abukar and Marcus Slaughter, who can neutralize Marco Killingsworth.

Bracket Champion: Memphis – Though the Tigers are vulnerable, no one in this bracket is as complete.

Again, a gut reaction. Look for more as the week goes on. I'm now starting to prep for Monmouth-Hampton on Tuesday night.

2006-03-08T20:27:00.000-06:00

Saved from themselves

NFL fans would be wise to read Michael McCambridge's book, America's Game, a terrific read chronicling how the league became the most dominant in professional sports.

The league's secret was that its movers and shakers always realized that the entire chain was only as strong as its weakest link. That led to decisions such as drafting based on inverse order of finish the previous year, adjusting schedules to favor the weaker teams, and, as the money came roaring in, revenue sharing. Wellington Mara, the late Giants owner, carried this torch and carried it well.

Ultimately, the league's players and owners got together to save the league from themselves and agree to six more years of labor peace. While I believe the salary cap is flawed and overrated, as I chronicled last week, I am glad to see both sides took the steps necessary to ensure that relations will be smooth until at least 2011. The league, which has done better than any other at putting the spotlight on its game days, can get back to its specialty.

Commissioner Paul Tagliabue, by forcing his owners' hand, has stepped out from predecessor Pete Rozelle's long shadow, and Players Union president Gene Upshaw has overcome his reputation as one who caves to the league. This is likely the final deal the two men will do, and the fact that it got done at all is no small feat.

DJ

2006-03-08T14:51:00.000-06:00

It IS March!

Thanks to Gerry McNamara for bringing us back to the sport we should be talking about at this time of year.

A buzzer-beater in the opening game of the deepest conference tournament ever, with both teams fighting for their NCAA lives. That's what March is all about.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=260672132

DJ

2006-03-07T20:10:00.000-06:00

Is it March?

The month of March usually means lots of talk about college basketball. Not so far this month. Go to any of the major sports news Web sites, and likely the three top stories are about baseball: the death of Kirby Puckett, the start (for the North American teams) of the World Baseball Classic, and the new revelations about Barry Bonds.

Another big story is about the NFL owners' meeting, held at an airport near me (it's much easier to sneak away without talking to the media if they don't get an agreement).

So I'm here to talk conference tournaments, but first, one word about the stories of Puckett and Bonds that have broken in subsequent days. When you treat reporters with class and make yourself accessible, as Puckett did, you're much more likely to shake off bad press. When you treat the media as if it sickens you to even look them in the eye or that they are the reason for all of your frustrations in life, as Bonds does, they're likely to come at you in waves.

The public follows behind. Check out any of the Web boards and Bonds is getting savaged while Puckett is being remembered as a statesman of the game. That's called a legacy, and while Puckett preserved his despite bad behavior, Bonds is in serious danger of losing any he might have created on the field.

Now, for some predictions for the Big Six tournaments:

Big East
The Favorite: UConn, which clearly looks like the best team in the country.
The Next Best Threat: Villanova, which split with the Huskies and is ranked No. 2.
The Dark Horse: Marquette, which beat UConn, lost a close game to Villanova and very quietly marched to the No. 4 seed in the tournament.
My Pick: UConn over Villanova in the final (a heavyweight battle goes to the top seed, but this matchup would look much less favorable for UConn in the NCAAs)

SEC
The Favorite: Florida, the impressive road win at Kentucky made the difference.
The Next Best Threat: Tennessee, the conference's most consistent team all year.
The Dark Horse: Kentucky, which might still be on the bubble and brings Elite Eight experience.
My Pick: Florida over Kentucky (Gators could go a long way in March)

ACC
The Favorite: UNC, right now this is the best team in the conference.
The Next Best Threat: Duke, if J.J. Redick can get his legs back.
The Dark Horse: Boston College, a quiet 11-5 and a rugged, experienced team.
My Pick: BC over Duke (if the Eagles can get past UNC)

Pac 10
The Favorite: Washington, the defending champion and winners of eight in a row.
The Next Best Threat: UCLA, took its first Pac 10 title in nine years.
The Dark Horse: Stanford, gets a break in opener with Arizona missing Hassan Adams.
My Pick: Stanford over Washington (one conference usually has a stunner, and the Cardinal only need win three games to do it)

Big 12
The Favorite: Texas, a team that can beat you inside or outside.
The Next Best Threat: Kansas, which has jelled into a legitimate NCAA threat.
The Dark Horse: Texas A&M, winners of seven in a row and a definite bubble team.
My Pick: Oklahoma over Texas (the Sooners aren't mentioned above but have shown a knack for winning close games)

Big 10
The Favorite: Ohio State, an NCAA number one seed potentially awaits them.
The Next Best Threat: Illinois, key players return from last year's conference champs.
The Dark Horse: Michigan State, as dangerous a No. 6 seed as any conference has.
My Pick: Illinois over Ohio State (revenge from last year's only regular season loss)

DJ

2006-03-07T10:40:00.000-06:00

More on Kirby

A nice tribute to Puckett, with commentary from my fellow bloggers, on Deadspin.com today.

http://www.deadspin.com/sports/baseball/remembering-kirby-puckett-158819.php

DJ

2006-03-06T20:07:00.000-06:00

A terrible day

It's sadly ironic that I started reading a new book on Babe Ruth on Friday, and now, three days later, I'm writing a few thoughts on another large, delightful man with a voracious appetite for baseball and life.

Kirby Puckett died today at age 45, and while the Hall of Famer won't be thought of in quite the same breath as baseball's most transcendent figure, in Minnesota, where I lived for most of the past 13 years, he was very much a Ruthian figure.

Puckett's infectious enthusiasm and genuine joy while playing 12 seasons in the major leagues reminded one of Ruth. His round body certainly would, though Ruth was taller and, for much of his career, well-muscled. And Puckett's appetite for food and women certainly are traits he shares with the Bambino.

There's one big difference, though. I never saw Ruth play. Everything I've written about him comes from reliable sources. Everything I'm writing about Puckett comes from the experiencing of watching him, and, in a few cases, interviewing him.

While no Ruth, Puckett was damn good. Good enough to accrue more hits in his first 10 major league seasons than anyone since the 19th century. Good enough to lead the Twins to two World Series titles. Good enough to win six Gold Gloves and six Silver Slugger Awards, and earn 10 All-Star appearances. Good enough to hit .318 lifetime, never hitting below .288 in any season.

Puckett, with one of the oddest body shapes in his sport, did almost everything well. His only shortcoming was the inability to draw walks. Kirby just wanted to swing the bat so much. And you can't argue with the outcome of that philosophy.

I was there the day he retired from the game, after he was stricken with glaucoma in the spring of 1996. Surgery couldn't cure the problem, and Puckett was forced to tell a stunned group of teammates, Cleveland Indians opponents, team executives and reporters that he was unable to play baseball anymore.

All of us, as rational human beings with at least some knowledge of health and science, understood that glaucoma was a condition that would likely force his retirement. But all of us, as people who had watched Puckett, interacted with him, and admired his boyish optimism didn't want to believe in our hearts that he was through. Why Puckett, one of the best ambassadors baseball ever had?

My job that day was to write the "game story," which really wasn't about the game. I mentioned only the score, and that couldn't even be read until the story had jumped inside the sports section. All the players -- and all of us media -- wanted to talk about was Kirby.

"How can you prepare yourself for something like that?" said Marty Cordova. "It never seemed like it was going to be this serious."

"The best compliment I could pay Puck is that he made me laugh, just being out there," said Rich Becker.

Rick Aguilera, who had a locker adjacent to Puckett's for much of their careers in Minnesota, summed it up best: "I've played with a lot of great players in this game. But it was always a pleasure to be around him. He brought a great feeling into the clubhouse, the bus, the plane. That's where people's real character show."

The words seem all the more melancholy nearly 10 years later, with the news that Puckett was felled by a massive stroke. The rational side of us, again, might have seen it coming. Puckett had gained so much weight that he had to be at risk for health problems. And the fact that a blockage of blood vessels to his eye had ended his career, might have made us keen to him being a particularly high risk for a stroke.

But again, we bought into the person. Puckett's size was just another manifestation of his zest for life, since he couldn't display it on the baseball diamond any more. He displayed that optimism and joy in his interactions with people, and, despite the incidents that had tarnished his image over the past five years, he was someone we all believed was a fundamentally good, if deeply flawed, human being. So now, again, we ask, why him? Because we can't believe in our hearts that he is gone.

Three days after he retired, I went on a Boston sports radio station to talk about Puckett (and Jack Morris and Darryl Strawberry, who were playing with the minor league St. Paul Saints that summer in an effort to return to the majors). The host asked me about Puckett's odds for the Hall of Fame. There was no doubt in my mind, I said, that he was a Hall of Famer. I recited the stats, the big-game heroics, the contributions to the game overall, and said I that he would get the benefit of the doubt from most media, to whom he was virtually an icon.

In hindsight, Puckett got in just in time, in 2001, before all of the allegations from his personal life hit the news and tarnished his legacy. So today I choose to think back to his induction, to what I knew of him and what I thought of him then: a remarkable and unique baseball player whose career -- and now, sadly, his life -- ended way too soon.

DJ

2006-03-02T19:32:00.000-06:00

Why fear an uncapped year?

Today the NFL postponed the perceived Armageddon of not having a labor contract extension, by giving management and the players union three more days to negotiate.

What I'm wondering is: What's the big deal?

Yes, I realize that, absent an extension, 2007 will be an "uncapped year" for salaries, meaning teams can spend as much as they want and a handful of rich clubs will have a perceived competitive advantage. And yes, I realize that if a salary cap goes away for one year, it very likely might be gone for good.

I'm still not believing that's a bad thing.

Chris Mortensen was on ESPN Radio the other day talking about how the league has declined in quality because of the salary cap, because teams constantly have to turn over their rosters to meet the demands of the cap. And he's right.

The current contract includes not only a salary cap, but also a salary floor that teams must exceed. What often happens in that scenario is a team that needs to meet the minimum overpays for a player, or puts a franchise tag on a player, who really isn't worth the money. That, in turn, boosts the market for all players and drives other teams toward the cap.

Football is not a sport that lends itself to big contracts. Its players are more prone to injury than any sport, and that produces careers that average just more than three years. That same magic that turned the Rams and Ravens into Super Bowl champs in short order also blew up in the faces of teams who suffered major injuries. With the obnoxious signing bonuses that teams pay out to stay under the cap, players are getting a lot of money up front with little or no guarantee that they'll earn that money over the life of the contract.

Furthermore, as part of the deal to get the salary cap, the owners conceded a key element: free agency after four years. So just about the time a player has learned the league and become a key contributor to his team (if he stays healthy), he's free to go somewhere else. So much for developing your own talent.

I know it's a warm and fuzzy story that the Green Bay Packers can compete in the NFL in such a small community, where the fans literally own the team. But their success really doesn't have much to do with the salary cap. The NFL rakes in enough money that, with revenue sharing, there's plenty to go around. And beyond that, the Packers became a good team when Ron Wolf and Mike Holmgren remade the club that had been one of the worst in football for more than 20 years. They drafted or traded for nearly all of the key players, Reggie White being the most notable exception. And we all know that God told him to forsake more money elsewhere and sign with the Pack.

Look at some of the teams that are under the salary cap going into this year (this is as of today, if the cap doesn't move above the $94.5 million). Sure, there are some duds -- Arizona, Green Bay, Cleveland and San Francisco were four of the worst teams this year. But Jacksonville, which went 12-4, is nearly $17 million under the cap. Philadelphia, which struggled this year but had gone to four straight NFC title games, is also nearly $17 million under. San Diego, which has an impressive collection of talent, is nearly $20 million under. Seattle, a Super Bowl participant, is $12 million under.

And New England, which seems to have done pretty well for itself in recent years, is $4 million under and almost never seems to have cap issues. Pittsburgh, the Super Bowl champion, is over the cap, but only by $4.5 million. Carolina, the NFC runner-up, is $5.6 million over.

The team that's in the most trouble? Oakland, at $23.5 million over. That juggernaut is an imposing 13-35 over the past three years. Just wince, baby. The top six teams above the cap include five non-playoff teams and the one-dimensional Redskins.

Want parity? Tell me how a salary cap has helped the NBA, which has had a grand total of FIVE franchises win a title in the past 19 seasons. That's the same number that baseball, which is supposed to be the example of big-market franchises running amuck, has had in the past five seasons.

The Yankees have so much money that they can buy half of the remaining major league teams, but they haven't managed to win a World Series since 2000. It's becoming more and more clear that the reason New York won four titles in the previous five seasons was because they spent their money on the right players, not the most expensive players. Those Yankees teams were the New England Patriots of baseball on the field.

And while Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee don't have a lot to show for their small-market status, they can look at examples of teams like Minnesota and Oakland, who have succeeded without breaking the bank, by drafting and developing consistently good talent. Part of the reason is that baseball players need six years of major league service to become free agents, not the measly four years that football players need (it will become six if the current contract isn't extended). So a player can be a key contributor before other teams are able to court him.

Trust me, I'm not wishing that a bunch of haves wrestle control of the NFL away from the have-nots. I'm a fan of the Steelers, not a big-market team by any stretch, and many of my close friends are diehard fans of the aforementioned Packers. I love seeing the little guy win in everything. I'm just not convinced that eradicating a salary cap will prevent that from happening.

It would seem that a labor deal that reduces reliance on a cap and a floor, lets the market decide who should earn the most money, increases the length of service for free agency, reduces profligate spending on signing bonuses, and gives the players some kind of security for their broken down bodies to heal once they retire, would be something everyone could appreciate -- whether you're a fan in New York or Washington or just a humble stockholder in Green Bay.

DJ

2006-02-28T20:11:00.000-06:00

March is upon us

As I type this on February 28, conference basketball tournaments are getting underway, and the excitement will build in the final two weeks leading up to Selection Sunday.

The NCAA tournament is difficult to predict and often comes down to which team can gain favorable matchups, but here are five things it certainly helps to have in your arsenal come March, along with an early handicap of which teams might have those tools and which should be looking over their backs.

1) Great guards -- No position in college basketball is more important than the man who has the ball in his hands the most. And the more players that can do it -- usually the guards -- the better off a team will be. The tournament is all about pressure, and the teams that respond can trust their guards to bring the ball upcourt and set up plays no matter how tough the defense is or how loud the crowd is. The point guard is particularly critical. A point guard doesn't necessarily need to be experienced (see Mike Bibby, 1997 Arizona) or a great shooter (see Wayne Turner, 1996 Kentucky) but he must be confident and able to make quick decisions.

Case in point: North Carolina in 2005 (Raymond Felton and Rashad McCants), Maryland in 2002 (Juan Dixon and Steve Blake), Michigan State in 2000 (Mateen Cleaves and Charlie Bell).
But don't always count on it: No one really applies. Maybe Syracuse in 2003 had the weakest guards of recent champions, but that's only because Gerry McNamara was a freshman, and Kueth Duany and Billy Edelin role players. But they combined for 41 points in the championship game win.
This year's models: Villanova has the best four-guard rotation in recent NCAA history. Pittsburgh (Carl Krauser), Illinois (Dee Brown) and West Virginia (J.D. Collins) have battle-tested senior quarterbacks. Duke has a guard who happens to be the country's best player.
Watch out: The sport is now driven by guards, which means no team is totally vulnerable in this area. But will teams like Memphis and Ohio State, which missed the tournament last year, get the performances they need from their backcourts in crunch time?

Senior leadership -- With the pressure of the tournament also comes a bias toward the teams that have the most experience, inside and outside the tournament. Senior leadership comes in many forms. Sometimes it's a collection of teams that have been together for a while (Michigan State in 2000, Villanova in 1985), sometimes it's a senior star (Kansas in 1988, Duke in 2001), sometimes it's just a solid role player or two who form the team's backbone (UConn in 1999, North Carolina in 2005).
Case in point: Those listed above. Villanova and the 1983 NC State team were hardened by four years of experience in two of the nation's toughest conferences and certainly stand out.
But don't always count on it: Syracuse and Connecticut won back-to-back titles with only one senior each playing significant minutes. But when you have players such as Carmelo Anthony, Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon, you can forgive a little youth.
This year's model: West Virginia has the best senior class in the nation. Duke has the senior duo of Shelden Williams and Redick. Connecticut has three key seniors in Rashad Anderson, Denham Brown and Hilton Armstrong. Michigan State has seniors Paul Davis, Maurice Ager and Matt Trannon back from a Final Four team.
Watch out: Memphis has three freshmen and a sophomore as four of its top five scorers (behind senior Rodney Carney. Texas' top three players (Daniel Gibson, LaMarcus Aldridge and P.J. Tucker) are underclassmen.

Depth -- Six games in three weeks doesn't sound like a lot. After all, teams usually play the same number of games in the tournament that they do every week. However, coming off a tough regular season and grueling conference tournament, it helps to have extra bodies to bring off the bench. Depth also helps a team that has multiple offensive options, in case a key shooter goes cold.
Case in point: Kentucky's championship teams in 1996 and 1998 seemed to come at you in waves. Last year's Tar Heels had seven legitimate scoring threats.
But don't always count on it: Okafor still played 38 of 40 minutes in a championship game that was over by halftime in 2004. Duke has won three championships in 15 years largely on the strength of their starters.
This year's model: Florida, coached by former Kentucky assistant Billy Donovan, has nine players averaging double-figure minutes. Boston College also has nine and plays a linebacker style of basketball.
Watch out: Duke rarely goes more than six or seven deep, and they've paid for it against physical Big Ten teams like Indiana in 2002 and Michigan State last year. Both times the Blue Devils ran out of gas.

A veteran coach -- Players come and go in four years (or less), but college basketball coaches seem to stick around forever. Of all the factors that determine NCAA champions, this is one of the most telling. Whether its legends like Krzyzewski, Smith and Knight; lifers like Calhoun, Gary Williams and Izzo; or finally-winning-the-big-ones like Olson, Boeheim and Roy Williams, the list of championship coaches is indeed select.
Case in point: Nearly every champion in recent memory has a coach you've heard of.
But don't always count on it: Steve Fisher is the all-time example here, winning the title as an interim coach at Michigan in 1989. Tubby Smith won it in his first year at Kentucky, but he had a solid track record before coming to the Wildcats.
This year's model: There's Krzyzewski and Calhoun, of course. John Calipari made the Final Four at UMass in 1996 and has rebuilt a solid program at Memphis.
Watch out: If there was ever a year for the trend to reverse, it would be this one, with the likes of Jay Wright, Jamie Dixon, Mark Few, Thad Matta and Bruce Pearl coaching top 10 teams for much of the season. But all of them will have to get past either Coach K or Coach C.

Momentum -- The conference tournament is a grind for most teams, and some argue that it helps to rest your players a bit to get them ready for the Big Dance. But nothing helps prepare a team for the atmosphere of the NCAAs like a conference tournament, in which lower-seeded teams are desperate for wins and ticket distribution ensures an equity that keeps home-court advantages to a minimum in the major conferences.
Case in point: No team takes the conference tournament more seriously than Duke. The Blue Devils have won six of the past seven and preceded titles in 1992 and 2001 with ACC tournament championships. NC State keyed its run to the title in 1983 by winning the ACC tournament just to secure a bid. UConn outlasted Pitt in the 2004 Big East final, and Michigan State won the Big Ten tournament in 2000.
But don't always count on it: In deep conferences like the Big East and ACC, sometimes the best team doesn't win its league tournament but saves its best stuff for the bigger tournament to come. Maryland in 2002 and Syracuse in 2003 followed this path.
This year's model: Conference tournaments are yet to come, but of the top teams, only Duke, Gonzaga, Memphis and George Washington have won each of their last 10, and three of those play in non-power conferences. UConn and 'Nova are 9-1 with the only losses coming to each other.
Watch out: Michigan State and Florida have split their last 10 games. Pitt, Iowa and West Virginia are 6-4.

DJ

2006-02-27T19:58:00.000-06:00

Long Time Coming

Following an exhaustive five-year process, the Baseball Hall of Fame today announced the election of 16 men and one woman from the days when the sport was not integrated. This careful analysis and selection process, and the result from it, help baseball acknowledge the great legacy of the Negro Leagues and the black baseball that preceded it.

I've criticized the Hall of Fame selection process for being too rigorous in the past -- by trying too hard to find the greatest players in baseball history, they've ignored some who can claim legitimacy to that distinction. Those include the likes of Goose Gossage, Dick Allen, Ron Santo, Bert Blyleven and Tony Oliva, in my opinion.

So it's refreshing to see the committee generously choose 17 of 39 candidates. A surprising omission might be Buck O'Neil, the joyous ambassador and raconteur who has carried the mantle of the Negro Leagues as one of its last living participants. The committee didn't give specific reasons for selection or omission, though it's probable that O'Neil -- a steady but unspectacular hitter and a consistent fielder -- didn't have the stats that other candidates did. (This is the same kind of "logic" other Hall committees have used to justify ignoring the folks listed above.)

Here's a quick rundown of the 17 people elected. Comments are from The Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues by James A. Riley or from The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract by Bill James.

Effa Manley -- The first woman inducted into the Hall. Co-owner of the Newark Eagles with her husband Abe from 1936-1946 and then sole owner for two more years, Manley was "a woman ahead of her time," according to Davis. "When Branch Rickey and other owners began signing her players, she fought for just compensation, and Bill Veeck paid her when he signed Larry Doby."

Alex Pompez -- A Cuban, he owned the New York Cubans for 15 years, and helped organize the first Negro World Series in 1924. In 1948, his team became a farm team for the New York Giants, and says Davis, "In this capacity he was responsible for many black players being signed by the major leagues."

Cum Posey -- He was associated with the most famous Negro Leagues franchise of all, the Homestead Grays, for 35 years. Posey was player, manager, booking agent, business manager and eventually the owner of the Grays. He signed the likes of Oscar Charleston, Josh Gibson, Judy Johnson and Buck Leonard. Davis cites his creativity: "Posey was an innovative owner, initiating night ball years before the major leagues explored the possibility of playing night games."

J.L. Wilkinson -- Owner of another powerhouse team, the Kansas City Monarchs, Wilkinson's franchise sent 27 players to the major leagues after integration, more than any other team. Jackie Robinson played for the Monarchs, as did Satchel Paige, Ernie Banks and Elston Howard. He also stumped for night baseball, according to Davis, "installing a portable lighting system on the beds of trucks in 1930." More admirably, Wilkinson (a white man), "traveled with the team and looked after the best interests of his players providing the best travel accommodations available and compensating the players generously."

Sol White -- A player and manager in two different centuries, White played minor league baseball with white teams then organized the Philadelphia Giants in 1902. The team won four consecutive eastern championships as a manager and the team's shortstop. Davis describes him as: "An intense player when in action on the diamond, he otherwise demonstrated a calm disposition that served him well as a manager." He later became a newspaper columnist.

Ray Brown -- Due to the barnstorming nature of black baseball, it's difficult to compare players' stats to those of today, or even their peers' numbers. But Brown is considered one of the Negro Leagues' greatest pitchers. He helped the Grays win nine straight Negro National League titles from 1937-1945. Davis describes his repertoire of pitches as a sinker, a slider and a fine fastball, "but his curveball was his best pitch. So confident was Ray in all of his pitches that he would throw a curve with a 3-0 count on the batter."

Willard Brown -- Nicknamed "Home Run," Brown holds several home run records in Puerto Rican winter ball in addition to his performance in the Negro Leagues. He hit between .336 and .371 during five seasons from 1937 to 1942 (he skipped 1940 to play in Mexico), and the Monarchs won the Negro American League pennant each year. James compares him to the likes of Frank Robinson and Andre Dawson.

Andy Cooper -- A left-handed pitcher with the Detroit Stars and then the Monarchs, Cooper was "a smart pitcher who was a master at mixing pitches and changing speeds," says Davis. He was 113-46 over nine seasons from 1922 to 1930. He later became a manager and led the Monarchs to four Negro American League pennants.

Biz Mackey -- The finest defensive catcher in the Negro Leagues, according to James, Mackey struck fear in opponents with his arm and his bat. Davis says, "He could snap a throw to second from a squatting position ... and his pegs to the keystone sack were frozen ropes passing the mound belt high and arriving on the bag feather soft." He hit .423 in 1923 for the Hilldale Daisies, and then hit no worse than .315 over the eight succeeding years.

Mule Suttles -- One of the Negro Leagues' great power hitters, he swung a 50-ounce bat, says Davis. And it produced massive home runs, as well as a .329 batting average over his career, primarily with the St. Louis Stars and Newark Eagles. His best year was 1926, when he hit 26 homers and batted .432 with a 1.000 slugging percentage. His greatest shot? Well, it's all second-hand information, but teammates recalled a shot in Havana that cleared a 60-foot wall located more than 500 feet from home plate -- with plenty to spare.

Cristobal Torriente -- A left-handed hitting Cuban center fielder with a strong arm, James says Torriente was good enough to force all-time great Oscar Charleston to shift to left field when they were teammates briefly. He hit as high as .412 in the Negro Leagues as "a notorious bad ball hitter; any pitch that left the pitcher's hand was likely to end up against the outfield wall," says Davis. In a Cuban exhibition series, he outhit and outhomered Babe Ruth, who was barnstorming with the New York Giants.

Jud Wilson -- James compares Wilson to Hack Wilson or Kirby Puckett -- "Short but powerful. Huge, huge shoulders, arms like a gorilla, big, bear-trap hands, but a small waist, short but powerful lower body." Satchel Paige considered him one of the two best hitters ever in black baseball. From 1923 to 1937, he hit no worse than .315 and as high as .395. Wilson played from 1922 to 1945, known for a competitive streak that occasionally turned into a fierce temper. Primarily a third baseman, Wilson adopted a fielding style in which he would play the ball off his chest before recovering and throwing to first.

Frank Grant -- Born in the year the Civil War ended, Grant was given the name Ulysses but called Frank from an early age. Most of his career came in the 19th century, where he was called "the black Dunlap," as a favorable comparison to Fred Dunlap, a great second baseman in white baseball. Grant played for a barnstorming team called the Big Gorhams of New York in 1891, leading them to an incredible 100-4 record. Davis says Grant suffered extreme racial prejudice, at one point wearing wooden shinguards for protection from runners seeking to spike him, and "on occasion he was moved to the outfield for his own protection."

Pete Hill -- A contemporary of Ty Cobb, while Cobb was hitting .420 for the Detroit Tigers in 1911, Hill hit safely in 115 of 116 games that year for the Chicago American Giants. He was a left-handed hitter who rarely struck out and used the whole field, a la Wade Boggs. Hill was also a great center fielder and the most disruptive baserunner of his time, says Davis: "He was a nervy base runner who upset pitchers and infielders like Jackie Robinson was to do a quarter decade later."

Jose Mendez -- A right-handed pitcher from Cuba, Mendez began playing organized baseball at age 16. His greatest work came with the Cuban Stars, going 44-2 in 1909 and 18-2 the next year. Davis says, "Mendez had long arms and exceptionally long fingers, enabling him to get more spin on a ball. ... the graceful hurler threw with a deceptively easy motion that created havoc with batters' timing." (Think Mariano Rivera with more velocity.) At age 33, he became manager of the Monarchs, played shortstop and pitched occasionally, compiling a 20-4 record over seven seasons.

Louis Santop -- James ranks Santop as the second-best catcher in Negro Leagues history after Josh Gibson (Mackey is third). His 240-pound build made him one of the best at blocking the plate, and he had a great arm (Davis says he could stand at home plate and throw the ball over the center field fence.) He batted over .400 for four consecutive seasons from 1911 to 1914 and was considered the first great power hitter in the Negro Leagues.

Ben Taylor -- Taylor was a double-threat, a first baseman and pitcher who excelled at both as well as at the plate. He hit .334 lifetime, had a 30-1 record against all competition in 1911, and as a lefty, displayed the smooth fielding at first base that would bring Keith Hernandez or Mark Grace to mind. Davis says, "He was good on ground balls and could make all the plays at first, making the other infielders look good by digging out low throws and making difficult plays with such ease that they appeard routine."

For more information on these deserving players and executives, as well as those who were on the ballot but failed to gain election, check out the profiles on the Hall of Fame site.

DJ

2006-02-27T08:33:00.000-06:00

Two for the Money

Connecticut won its rematch with Villanova on Sunday, 89-75, avenging its loss to the Wildcats 13 days earlier. The top two teams in the Big East each won their matchup at home, and they have the look of teams that could meet again in the Big East Tournament and then perhaps again with much more at stake in early April.

The Huskies and Wildcats play their games differently, but their contrasting styles are reminiscent of another pair of conference rivals -- North Carolina and Duke -- last year. UConn, like UNC last year, has magnificent athleticism, size and depth. As star players with size have opted in recent years to jump to the pros quickly, it's rare that a team can have a front line as athletic as the Huskies' Hilton Armstrong, Josh Boone and Rudy Gay. Charlie Villanueva, a first-round NBA pick having a strong rookie year, would have to fight for minutes with this bunch.

Villanova, like Duke last year (and this year), isn't as deep or as tall, but they shoot the ball well from the outside and they use their lack of size as an advantage to play pressure defense on the ball. It's virtually unthinkable to try to win with a four-guard offense, but Villanova has four as good as Allan Ray, Randy Foye, Mike Nardi and Kyle Lowry, and they've pulled it off beautifully. Ask the Tar Heels, which escaped the Wildcats in the Sweet 16 last year only with the help of a shaky traveling call on Ray in the final seconds. There's no shame in losing to West Virginia and on the road at Texas and UConn, 'Nova's only three losses this year.

Where does the smart money lie? Well, remember that UNC won the NCAA Championship last year, while Duke lost to a more physical and deeper Michigan State team in the Sweet 16. It's possible to see the same thing happen again in a tournament that is more about matchups than pure talent. UConn is the safer bet in your brackets, but don't count out Villanova, whose guts and willingness to sell out on defense are reminiscent of the Wildcats' 1985 national championship team. That team, if you might remember, cut its teeth in the wars of the Big East -- the nation's best conference then and once again.

DJ

2006-02-24T16:19:00.000-06:00

A Mohr-atorium, please

Somewhere between his performance as an arrogant sports agent in Jerry Maguire and his performance as an arrogant sports agent in a Diet Pepsi commercial (this guy has range!), Sports Illustrated saw fit to give Jay Mohr a column called "Mohr Sports" on its Web site.

Mohr had a short-lived talk show (also called "Mohr Sports") on ESPN, and he's been on Jim Rome's radio and TV shows a number of times. In those endeavors, he showed that his greatest contribution is playing a smart-alecky know-it-all type who probably knows a lot more about sports than he lets on, because he'd prefer to talk smack.

Now he's evidently being paid to reprise that role in writing. Mohr, who once provided the voice of Christopher Walken on an episode of The Simpsons, has now won the role of Skip Bayless in print.

Among his column titles this year are "I couldn't care less about the Olympics" and "I'm ticked off the Chiefs hired Herm before calling me." Also, witness his most recent effort, "NBA All-Star Game and 'events' have become a joke":

Was the NBA All-Star Game on this year? I must have missed it. Maybe it was
because there was just too much great television to watch instead of the NBA's
mid-winter classic. Like reruns of 30 Minute Meals with Rachael
Ray on theFood Network or that show on Telemundo where the guy dresses
up in a bumblebee costume.

For years the NBA All-Star Game has been completely irrelevant.
Long ago, fans began tuning out the league's best players playing bad
basketball. For too long the stars have embraced an all-offense and no-defense
approach, and this is one of the many reasons it has become
unwatchable.

If you disagree with me, then explain why the All-Star Game was shown
on TNT, sandwiched between Steven Seagal movies. It's because it stinks. The
"events" that lead up to the game stink too. The slam dunk contest is a
perennial snore. Even when it is won by New York Knicks rookie Nate Robinson,
who at 5-foot-9 is barely tall enough to ride the log flume at your
local amusement park.

The column is deliciously ironic. Because given the life span of "Mohr Sports," it was obvious that more people preferred The Food Network and Telemundo to that program as well. Irrelevant, unwatchable and perennial snore would probably be an apt description of much of Mohr's work as well.

Oh, and the shot he takes at Nate Robinson about being barely tall enough to ride the log flume at an amusement park? Mohr is 5-foot-7 1/2.

2006-02-24T09:32:00.000-06:00

Red, white and boooooooo!

By the headline, you might think I'm writing about the Shani Davis-Chad Hedrick, made-for-TV Olympic saga, but that's not the case. I'm writing about the biggest fiasco to hit Major League Baseball since the All-Star Game tie in 2002.

It's the World Baseball Classic, featuring some of the biggest stars the game has ever seen. Well, maybe by the time it gets underway next week, it won't, but for now, we still have Roger Clemens, Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez.

But the numbers are going down, fast. Barry Bonds was one of the first to back out, though for defensible reasons. He's coming off knee surgery and needs to devote himself to the Giants in what might be his final season. Hideki Matsui is skipping it for Japan. Dominicans Manny Ramirez (out for the Classic) and Pedro Martinez (skipping the first round) are on the out or uncertain list. Gold Glove center fielder Vernon Wells is injured and might have to back out. Texas Rangers stars Francisco Cordero and David Dellucci have opted not to participate. And you have to believe the list will get bigger as teams gather at Spring Training and evaluate their status.

Remember, this was Bud Selig's plan to promote baseball on a worldwide level. Bring together the best players from around the world, have them represent their countries, or in the case of some, the countries of their ancestors. Have a round-robin format that leads to a championship game and the nationalism will just flow from there.

Well, the concept was good, but as with many things Selig has done, there have been a few flaws in the execution.

First of all, the timing made 30 major league managers cringe. The last thing one of them needs is to have an ace pitcher blow out an elbow or a star hitter pull a hamstring while playing in an exhibition. Second, the tournament is exhausting the better part of Spring Training. Seventeen days on the road, away from the team, has to do wonders for chemistry. Third, baseball isn't on the minds of most sports fans during March, because there's something called the NCAA Basketball Tournament to occupy them.

A better idea would have been to conduct the tournament after the season. Yes, some players might opt out to rest their bodies after 162 games, but it would be more likely Selig would have had the support of the teams. Influential owners such as George Steinbrenner and John Henry have been among the most vocal critics of the Classic. In reality, some teams will show up playing to win; others will show up playing not to get hurt. That doesn't inspire great baseball.

Or, Selig could have thought outside the box, which most would admit isn't his greatest strength. Instead of a three-day All-Star break, have a weeklong break and play a shortened version of the tournament during that period. Instead of 16 teams, have four playing a single-elimination tournament.

The Caribbean could have one team, Central and South America (including Mexico) a second team, the U.S. and Canada a third and the rest of the world a fourth. One semifinal game on Tuesday, another semifinal on Wednesday and the championship on Friday night. No other major sports would be competing for those time slots, so baseball would be on the stage for the world to see. You might not get the nationalism that comes with representing home countries, but you would see quality baseball and most likely you'd have the best players in the world on display.

Just make sure there aren't any tie games.

DJ

2006-02-21T19:57:00.000-06:00

Book Review: Bob Knight - The Unauthorized Biography

Bob Knight is one of those people you're either for or against.

I've always been a supporter of him, for the pure reason that he is who he is, and everyone knows that going in -- players, writers and, most of all, universities. You know you'll get a coach who will recruit his student-athletes cleanly, prepare them thoroughly and graduate them continuously.

In an era when college sports have become an extension of their professional counterparts, particularly basketball, Knight inspires thoughts of the college game we all grew up loving. His teams have always been built on tenacious defense and judicious offense, with a heavy dose of the team concept.

There's just this little thing about his temper ...

Someone as mercurial as Knight is fodder for book material, whether it be John Feinstein's career-making "A Season on the Brink," Joan Mellen's counterbalancing "Bob Knight: His Own Man," Steve Alford's memoir "Playing for Knight," or Knight's own autobiography. All of them tell the tales of the coach's roller-coaster life in their own way. The latest effort comes from Steve Delsohn of ESPN and Mark Heisler of the Los Angeles Times, who provide a quick and fairly balanced portrait of Knight from his days as a boy in Orrville, Ohio, to his most recent season at Texas Tech. The more than 150 interviewees include a diverse collection from Knight friends and loyalists (Isiah Thomas, Knight mentor Pete Newell, columnist and friend Dave Kindred) to those who probably aren't on his Christmas-card list (IU transfers Ricky Calloway, Delray Brooks and Larry Bird, CNN/SI producer Robert Abbott, NCAA tournament official Rance Pugmire)

Where they add to the genre is in their reporting on Knight's fall from grace and dismissal from Indiana. Of the books listed above, only Knight's own book has come out since he left Bloomington, and it includes only one voice -- Knight's own.

But Delsohn and Heisler use two key IU figures, athletic director Clarence Doninger and university vice president Christopher Simpson, to fill in some of the lines Knight left uncolored. Doninger was once friends with Knight but probably took more abuse from him in Knight's final years than anyone at Indiana. Simpson was close to Knight -- they went fishing together during the summer before Knight was fired -- but, as with anyone who crosses the coach, he's certainly on the outside looking in now. Neither man appears to have an axe to grind, but more of a desire to tell their side, which is balanced by some of Knight's confidants and excerpts from the more sympathetic portraits of him since he left the Hoosiers.

Knight makes clear in his own book that he wishes he had resigned from Indiana rather than agreeing to the zero tolerance policy after the CNN/SI story that produced the damning Neil Reed videotape. This book seems to concur with Knight's thinking, given that the policy really left no room for interpretation. Someone of Knight's stature and disposition was going to violate it one way or another, especially if he was baited, as it seemed he was by student Kent Harvey in the Assembly Hall lobby.

Knight is a proud and competitive man. It is those two traits that have led him to the cusp of Dean Smith's record for coaching victories, to three national titles and an Olympic gold medal (the chapter that chronicles the selection of the 1984 team is also well-reported). It is also those two traits that have morphed into vices. The pride becomes defiance. The competitiveness, especially with himself, becomes the fuel for outrage and the motivation to justify any means to an end.

Defiance and the fuel to take decisive action -- the continuum of historical figures to display those traits runs the moral gamut, from Martin Luther King to Attila the Hun. Where is Knight on that continuum? Not close to either, though he has loyalists and detractors who have probably put him in the same conversations as both.

Knight has fulfilled the mission of those who employed him -- at Army, Indiana and Texas Tech, he has won basketball games, graduated students and produced successful men off the court. The price has been high, especially to himself but also to those who have been caught in the crosshairs of his outbursts. We'd all like it if someone so successful could also make us feel good inside.

But as this book echoes the others written about Knight, that hope runs counter to two things: 1) That's just not who Knight is personally; and 2) That's not how he sees his role as a teacher and leader of men. Which brings me back to the original point: People know that going in. They must either accept it or find another man to follow.

DJ

2006-02-19T20:27:00.000-06:00

Barry Bonds' victory lap

Barry Bonds will play his final major league season this year, he told USA TODAY this weekend. He says his pursuit of the all-time home run record won't enter into the equation -- that he'll retire whether or not he hits the 48 homers needed to pass Hank Aaron's total of 755.

If you read the article, you'll see the classic Bonds grousing on display. The man airs more grievances than Frank Costanza at Festivus. This time it's the fact that the game isn't fun anymore and that he's apparently taking handfuls of pain pills and sleeping pills to get through his days and nights. (Anyone who doesn't see the irony in that last admission isn't trying hard enough.)

In any case, though Bonds won't win any awards for congeniality, he has won just about everything else that baseball offers a hitter. He has won seven Most Valuable Player awards, four more than anyone else in league history and more than any athlete in one of the four major sports except for Wayne Gretzky (nine).

He's led the league in batting twice, home runs twice and RBIs once. He has eight Gold Gloves and 13 All-Star Game appearances, and he's sure to increase that last number if he's healthy this year. He has turned the chic new stat of OBP (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) into his own personal trademark, blending his power with a patience and batting eye that only look better when opposing pitchers are afraid to throw him a strike. Bonds broke the major league record for walks in 2001 (177), then broke it again the next year (198), then shattered it once more in 2004 (232).

Last year he missed all but 14 games due to knee ailments, but his five homers in those games showed he still can hit a baseball a long way. Despite the fact that he's only hit 48 homers or more in a season twice, if healthy he's at least a 50-50 shot to break Aaron's record.

Many baseball fans won't be rooting for Bonds, for two big reasons: One is the aforementioned petulance he displays so often in public, and the other, more ominous reason is the veil of suspicion that Bonds' performance this decade has been helped by steroids. A slender, elegant player in his 20s, Bonds has added bulk in his later years that have driven up his power numbers significantly. Yet aside from a grand jury admission that he received two substances believed to be "the cream" and "the clear," he's in a legal sense free of guilt.

The more homers Bonds hits this year, the more time will be spent on the morality of him breaking the most hallowed record in sports. (Ironically, it was for altogether different and far more sinister reasons that many baseball fans were rooting against Aaron to break Babe Ruth's
record in 1974).

And if Bonds' chase turns into a discussion of his merits, it will be a shame. Because Bonds is one of the best players ever to pick up a bat and glove and play in the major leagues. Like his father, Bobby, Barry Bonds had a rare combination of power and speed long before suspicions of steroids ever entered into the discourse of the sport. He lifted the Pittsburgh Pirates to three straight division titles in the early 90s, then went to San Francisco in 1993 and had one of the greatest seasons ever (.336-46 HR-123 RBI-29 steals-126 walks) for a team that lost the division by one game. Save last season, he has hit fewer than 24 homers only twice. He has stolen 28 bases or more 12 times. His defense in left field was outstanding for many years.

Had he stopped playing in 2000, the year before he hit 73 homers, he would still have retired with more than 400 homers, nearly 500 steals, a career average around .280, three MVP awards and all those Gold Gloves. He would have been Hall of Fame material, and no one would care about the results of his drug tests.

The four seasons between 2001 and 2004 lofted him into the category of Ruth, Mays, Aaron and Ted Williams, and have at times made his critics want to put him into a group with Joe Jackson and Pete Rose, counting those who have stained the game. We can't have it both ways. The magnificent numbers of those four years will always be given an asterisk in the minds of many.

Which is also why, again, it would be a shame to see his final season be about Barry's pharmaceutical history and not his baseball legacy. We have no doubt seen one of the game's singular talents over the past 20 seasons. We'll have five years to weigh his character against his numbers, and to question or drudge up new evidence of how valid those numbers might be, as voters prepare to cast their Hall of Fame ballots.

For 2006, let's just enjoy him for who he is -- an all-time baseball great. And if Aaron's record falls, let's at least treat Bonds with more dignity than Aaron received when he passed the Babe.

DJ

2006-02-16T21:10:00.000-06:00

Mike Davis' burden

Indiana coach Mike Davis stepped down today, effective at the end of the season, but his days at Indiana were numbered the day he took the job. His only mistake was that he followed a legend like Bob Knight. But Knight wasn't just any legend; he was a lightning rod that inspired strong emotions in anyone who dealt with him. Nearly six years after his firing, lots of Hoosiers still can't let him go.

Never mind that it was Davis' recruiting that helped make Knight's last years more productive. Never mind that he got the Hoosiers to the Final Four in 2002, meaning he's been to the same number of Final Fours in this decade as Lute Olson, Rick Pitino, or Jim Calhoun. Davis had to measure up to the same yardstick that Bill Guthridge and Matt Doherty did at North Carolina, or a host of coaches since John Wooden did at UCLA, or whoever has to succeed Mike Krzyzewski at Duke will have to do.

You just can't meet the expectations of a fan base for whom second place means the first loser. Beyond that, Knight won in a singular way, inspiring undying loyalty from many and venomous hatred from others. In either case, Davis couldn't match Knight's mercurial personality nor shake himself from the long shadow of his predecessor. Give him all the credit in the world for hanging on as long as he did.

DJ

2006-02-13T19:37:00.000-06:00

Should we even care about the Olympics?

I'm sitting at my computer, which is in a different room of the house from any of my televisions. So by definition, I must not be paying any attention to the Olympics. I used to look forward to these every four years, and even into the stretch when they became essentially every two years. But I haven't watched a minute of it yet, and I can't say I plan to give it more than a cursory glance. Why? Here are five reasons:

Commercials -- To me, the moment the Olympic broadcasts "jumped the shark" came in 1988, when the United States was playing hockey (against whom, I can't remember) and because of television commercials, viewers missed at least two goals by the Stars and Stripes. At one point, Jim McKay came on and "educated" viewers that while the Olympics were important, it was also important that ABC pay homage to the advertisers whose money were paying for the cost of broadcasting the games. One of the network suits must have put McKay up to it, since there was no way that the voice of the Olympics would have gone there on his own. But ever since then, I've been reminded of how much broadcast rights to the Games cost, and how we'll always be a slave to the companies who fund it.

24-Hour News -- And since the Games are too plodding to watch, why not just cut to the chase? Thanks to the Internet and 24-hour news channels, one need not wait until prime time to find out who won the medals -- at least when the Olympics are being held outside the U.S. time zones. At noon on Saturday, I knew that Chad Hedrick had captured the first U.S. gold medal. Which was great because we had lots of errands to run that day, so there was no point in hurrying home to watch Hedrick's 5,000-meter performance on tape. And with TiVo, you can wait even longer to watch the events, whenever it's convenient. The suspense of watching an event live is gone. For that matter, the suspense of watching an event on tape is gone -- the U.S. beat the Russians in 1980, in a game that was shown tape-delayed, but outside of the folks in Lake Placid and maybe some others who had heard by phone, no one knew that had pulled the greatest upset in hockey history.

Doping -- The other "jump the shark" moment also came in 1988, when Ben Johnson won the 100-meter gold medal with an implausible 9.79-second time. Implausible, and it turned out, invalid as well. Johnson wasn't the first or the last Olympian to use illegal drugs or other internationally banned substances. But like Nixon in Watergate, he was the first on his level to get caught, and we've developed a natural suspicion of great athletes when they turn in incredible performances. Baseball has gone through the same scrutiny in recent years, especially because it hasn't until recently developed a drug-testing policy nearly as strict as that of the Olympics. But baseball has the advantage of being a thinking person's sport as well -- a crafty player can play as important a role as a physically gifted one. Many of the Olympics' sports are decided on pure power or speed, variables that performance-enhancing substances are bound to improve. In such cases, the drug test might be the toughest opponent an athlete faces.

Politics -- The majority of my Olympic watching has occurred since 1980, when President Carter led a boycott of the Moscow Games (the Eastern Bloc countries reciprocated four years later). While the Olympics should be above politics, they still have lost a bit of their character as the political situations in the world have changed. Go back to the 1980 hockey victory -- what made it special? Well, the whole amateur thing was one huge factor and will be covered in the next item. But the team gave the United States a shot of morale that if it could avoid being bullied on the ice, maybe it could avoid the same fate in the world as well. Now times have changed, and the United States is the most powerful nation (for better or worse; mostly better in my opinion) and doesn't have that lovable underdog story it once did. Of course we should win the most medals -- we have exceptional training facilities, sports medicine technology, sponsorship opportunities, and so much more. Good for us, but bad for the allure of the Games.

Professionalism -- This is the most obvious change. Mike Eruzione won a gold medal in the last hockey game he ever played for keeps. The Olympics made him a star. Too many Olympic athletes these days are already stars when they get to the Games. The "Dream Team" was a great concept, since the best basketball players in the country bought into it and made it what was supposed to be: a once-in-a-lifetime event. But since professionals were allowed to play the major team sports, a group with that degree of grace, likability and talent hasn't been seen again in Olympic basketball or in hockey (maybe Team Canada in 2002). Tennis is just another Olympic sport that some professionals attend and others don't, and if anything takes away from the lure of the Grand Slam events every four years. Beyond that, the likes of Bode Miller and Michelle Kwan clean up on endorsements. Why is it that the biggest story of the Games so far has been that of an athlete -- Kwan -- who WON'T compete? Because she's the star we all know. It would be nice if we could learn about some of the other folks, whose stories we haven't heard again and again.

DJ

2006-02-10T16:21:00.000-06:00

Bizarre basketball box score of the week

Credit to Pat Forde at ESPN for catching this one. Division III produces some wild games, but how about this one for craziness?

Beloit beats Grinnell 120-112, in regulation (not overtime)
Beloit wins despite not attempting a single 3-point shot; Grinnell shot 60 of them
Beloit took 27 fewer shots (93-66) but made more field goals (45-40)
Beloit's 6-foot-6 senior Josh Hinz outrebounded Grinnell by himself (36-27). Hinz tied the NCAA Division III record with his rebounding performance and scored 50 points.

Here's the box score:

http://www.beloit.edu/~sportcnt/inside/basketball/men/2005-06%20season/2-4gcm.htm

DJ

2006-02-09T11:36:00.000-06:00

Broadcaster traded for rabbit

You Can't Make This Up Department: In the AP story on Al Michaels' official move to NBC, it's mentioned that The Walt Disney Co. will receive the rights to silent cartoon character Oswald the Lucky Rabbit as part of its compensation for letting Michaels out of his contract.

My thoughts on the new MNF crew.

DJ

2006-02-08T19:35:00.000-06:00

Monday Night Fiasco

One of my close friends has held out without cable television for many years, but told me that when ESPN acquired Monday Night Football he would need to reconsider. He might now want to re-reconsider.

Today the network announced its new Monday night team. Mike Tirico will call play-by-play and be joined in the booth by Joe Theismann and Tony Kornheiser. This after Al Michaels reportedly is set to leave the Disney television family to join NBC and former MNF partner John Madden on Sunday nights. This ensures that ESPN's coverage of the NFL will continue to be unwatchable.

Now obviously ESPN has to have egg on its face for calling in what essentially is its B-team. But the network had a perfect out. Just reunite the Sunday Night Football group that has worked together for several years. Don't get me wrong -- Mike Patrick, Paul Maguire and Joe Theismann were the most annoying trio since the Bee Gees. A typical exchange between them often went like this:

Patrick: "First and 10, Green Bay. Here's Favre. Favre! Look at him! Avoids the rush! And he runs for a ONE YARD GAIN!!!!!! What an effort!"
Theismann: "Favre is tough! Did you see him take that hit by the lineman, whatever his name is? He took that hit like a man!"
Maguire: "Let me tell you about Brett Favre. This guy can play. He's 0-for-20 with five interceptions tonight, but that doesn't speak to the fact that he's a great quarterback!"
Theismann: "Not a great quarterback, Paul. The greatest quarterback who ever lived!"
Maguire: "He's everything that's right about this game! I think there was a flag on that play, but never mind. We haven't talked enough about Favre tonight."
Patrick: "Here comes Green Bay again, down 55-0 with 35 seconds left in the game. Favre takes them to the line. With him in there, this game is far from over!"

But at least that group had chemistry, if I can use that word loosely. Now we have Tirico, who like Patrick has a proclivity for overreacting to every play, calling the action. Theismann will continue to talk about a variety of subjects, some of which make sense. And Kornheiser, a knowledgeable sports guy but a hire that reeks of the Dennis Miller decision, will try to add his humor to the mix. It will be three guys screaming over each other, like a sports version of The McLaughlin Group.

Here's another thing: Did ESPN really believe Michaels would want to work with Theismann in the first place? Michaels is pickier than 5-year-old with a plate of vegetables, and Theismann never seemed like a match for a guy who has been working with the dean of football analysts. This partnership was doomed from the start, and ESPN should have seen it coming.

On the flip side, Mike Breen, who will take Michaels' place as lead NBA play-by-play man, is a solid, polished veteran who should mesh well with Hubie Brown, one of my favorite sports analysts. (I love to hear him talk about the Pistons' strength at "the forward position.") My only question is: Can they do NFL, too?

DJ

2006-02-07T20:36:00.000-06:00

Wednesday Morning Argument Starter

One of the most enjoyable things about writing a blog is seeing people's comments. Whether you agree with me, or you want to tell me I don't know what I'm talking about, this is your forum as much as it is mine. In an effort to feed this beast, I'm introducing the Wednesday Morning Argument Starter. It's Wednesday morning, the week is starting to drag, and you need a few minutes to take your mind off work. Come to my site, where I'll post my top five list of some topic, and feel free to take your shots at me.

Since this is Rivalry Week in college basketball, I thought I'd give my selections for the top five college basketball rivalries RIGHT NOW.

5. Wisconsin – Marquette: Besides being a geographic rivalry, in which the teams generally fight for the best players in the Badger State, the coaches seem to genuinely hate one another. Bo Ryan never refers to Tom Crean by name and attempts to lure recruits by telling them that Crean soon will be moving on to a more high-profile job. He’s now in his seventh season, and didn’t have to leave Marquette to get his high-profile job. The Golden Eagles are now in the Big East and Crean has taken them to a Final Four in 2003. Meanwhile, Ryan has the Badgers near the top of the Big Ten every year, and Wisconsin is one of the country’s surest things at home (except against North Dakota State). He’s made the Sweet 16 in three of his four seasons there and nearly engineered an upset of North Carolina last year. With both teams consistently near the Top 25, this game takes on new meaning.

4. Cincinnati – Xavier: Cincinnati and Louisvilleare often closely associated as a conference rivalry, but this is the battle for the city. Dubbed the Crosstown Shootout, it has a local chili company as a sponsor and has become an integral part of the city of Cincinnati's fabric. The Musketeers always seem to play their best when the Bearcats are among the nation’s elite. In 1996, Cincy came in ranked No. 1, and lost by two points. In 1999, the Bearcats came in again at the top of the polls, and lost again – by two points. Maybe their best game was in 2004, when Xavier won 71-69 and used the victory as fire to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament (beating previously undefeated St. Joe’s along the way) and march to the NCAA’s Elite Eight. The Musketeers won another nail-biter, 73-71 this year. With Cincinnati’s off-court troubles in recent years, this has become the basketball equivalent of Catholics vs. Convicts.

3. Arizona – Washington: The two locations couldn’t be more diverse. Arizona sits in the sun-drenched desert of Tucson, Washington in the drizzly lakefront of Seattle. Tucson is golf and Bingo, Seattle is rock music and extreme sports. Even the coaches, Lute Olson and Lorenzo Romar, represent the old-school/new-school contrast of their communities. But both coaches love up-tempo basketball, and these two teams have put on some of the best shows in the Pac 10 in recent years. In this year’s 96-95 double overtime road win by Arizona, the Wildcats rallied from 13 down in the first half, then the Huskies came back from a seven-point deficit in the final minute of regulation. In the conference final last year, Washington scored the game’s final 11 points to win 81-72. The Huskies, at 8-10, took the No. 2 ‘Cats to overtime in 2003 before losing at home, then got revenge by sweeping all three games the next season. This series can only get better and has the advantage of occurring twice a year.

2. Kentucky – Louisville: Both teams are struggling this year, but history has to be considered in a state that treats basketball as religion. Rick Pitino’s tenure at Kentucky, in which he resurrected a chastened program, made him a deity in the state, but among Wildcats fans he’s now the great Satan. His successor in Lexington, Tubby Smith, took the team to an NCAA title in his first season, but has struggled to live up to his initial success before the sport’s most demanding fans. Still, he can claim a victory over the Cardinals this year, which in that state is enough to salvage a season. This is a rivalry that dates back to the 1950s, during a time when Louisville bucked Southern traditions by recruiting African-American players while Kentucky stayed all-white. The teams didn’t play for 24 years, but fate put them in the same bracket of the NCAAs in 1983, and they met in a regional final, which the Cardinals won in overtime. Like long-lost souls destined to find each other once again, UK and UL met the next season and have played every year since.

1. Duke – North Carolina: Always and forever. What would it take for this game to not be the biggest rivalry in college basketball? Well, maybe of one of the schools getting the death penalty. A new book title on the rivalry says it all: "To Hate Like This is to be Happy Forever." The Duke-UNC games always mean more than any other, and they now have regained the star power to boot. Mike Krzyzewski collects high school All-Americans like Enron collected paper shredders. And Roy Williams has restored the luster to UNC’s vaunted program, winning a national championship last year and keeping his team in the Top 25 this year despite losing its top seven players. He's got another blue-chip class coming in next season. Every basketball high schooler in America dreams of being courted by one of these two schools, the best ones are, and as long as that continues, so will Duke-UNC. Let me know what you think.

DJ

2006-02-06T09:13:00.000-06:00

Five Storylines from Super Sunday

5) Bradshaw and Montana are no-shows. In a side event that was arguably better than much of the game, quarterbacks Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana did not attend the ceremony celebrating former Super Bowl MVPs. The two combined for five MVP awards and led two of the sport's great dynasties, making them notable absences in an otherwise classy parade. Many of football's greats attended the event, as did some men who stepped up on the sport's biggest stage. But Bradshaw said he wanted to spend time with his family (a weak alibi for a guy who participated in events all week and has had a love-hate relationship with Pittsburgh). And Montana, it's being reported, wasn't guaranteed enough money to appear, which if true, deeply tarnishes the Super Bowl's greatest star.

4) Questionable officiating. So concludes the worst-officiated postseason I can remember. It would be overstating it to say the Steelers won because of the officials, but the tentative calls by the crew followed a trend that ran throughout the entire playoffs. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Instant replay, despite the merits of being able to review plays from multiple angles in slow motion, has led to the unintended consequence of taking the game out of the officials' hands. It has undermined their confidence in calling a game.

3) Quarterbacks falling to earth. Both Matt Hasselbeck and Ben Roethlisberger were shaky, after performing very well throughout the postseason. Roethlisberger looked like the rookie who hijacked the Steelers' playoff run last year. Hasselbeck started well but didn't adjust when the Steelers backed off their blitz in the second half. Give credit to Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, who dared the Seahawks to put long drives together by reducing his pass rushers and dropping eight men into coverage. They couldn't do it. In fact, save the gift pick by Roethlisberger, Seattle might not have scored a touchdown all game.

2) One for the thumb. Pittsburgh joins San Francisco and Dallas as the only franchises to win five Super Bowls. And while this one wasn't pretty, it was decidedly "Steeler football." It was oddly reminiscent of the Steelers' first Super Bowl win, in 1975. That team, built around defense and a running game as this one was, led 2-0 at halftime and slugged out a 16-6 victory over Minnesota. Ostensibly, it's easy to say that this Pittsburgh team was one of the weakest entries to ever win a Super Bowl, but with many young stars in Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Heath Miller and Troy Polamalu, it might (MIGHT) be on the verge of greatness as well. Winning multiple Super Bowls is more difficult in this era than it was in the late 1970s, which makes the Patriots' recent success so impressive, but this team can't be judged on one game or even one great playoff run. Time will tell if this Pittsburgh team was a one-year wonder or a truly great team.

1) Hines Ward shines. Ward has always been a favorite of Steeler Nation for his toughness, talent and winning attitude. In a game in which many of the Steelers' stars had subpar games, Ward stepped up as he has all year. And over the past two seasons, Ward has caught touchdowns in five of the six Steelers playoff games. Think about it: Roethlisberger was off target all game and had his longest pass "completion" returned 76 yards the other way. Troy Polamalu didn't make many plays. Joey Porter had three tackles and no sacks. Willie Parker had only 18 yards on nine carries aside from his long touchdown run. Jerome Bettis had only one run over 10 yards. But there was Ward, doing what he's always done for the Steelers. But outside of Pittsburgh, most people haven't noticed. Think the Steelers signed the right wide receiver this past year?

Congratulations, Steelers and their fans (from one of your own)!

DJ

2006-02-02T20:58:00.000-06:00

Super Bowl Prediction

If you look at off-the-field warning signs, everything is pointing toward a Seattle victory.

Pittsburgh, which has gotten by as an underdog in its past two games, is now a favorite. Bill Cowher, who has been refreshingly low-key during the team’s three-game winning streak, is showing signs of the overcoaching that has doomed the team in the past. He’s gone with white jerseys as the home team (remember that he went with black jerseys in Super Bowl XXX as the home team, and that game wasn’t in Pittsburgh either) and has been protective of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

And linebacker Joey Porter, who kept relatively quiet on Media Day, has gone off the deep end since Seattle’s Jerramy Stevens essentially said the Seahawks would win by declaring that Jerome Bettis would leave Ford Field without a trophy.

So does Pittsburgh, which has played incredibly loose for a Cowher-led team, come out tight? Don’t bet on it. The Steelers realize how privileged they are to be in the Super Bowl. Roethlisberger is playing the best football of his career. And Porter is one of those athletes whose mouthing off seems to motivate himself more than the opposition. Every good defense needs one player who seems at least a little crazy. So Pittsburgh will be ready.

The matchups favor a high-scoring game. Pittsburgh will face an undersized Seattle defense that has great speed but could be handled by the Steelers’ powerful offensive line. Likewise, Seattle’s offensive front and strong running game can neutralize the Pittsburgh blitz. And if Troy Polamalu's ankle injury limits his speed and movement, the Steelers defense can be had.

The stories this week have focused on Bettis, likely playing the last game of his career in (all together now) his hometown, but I say keep an eye on the other Pittsburgh running back, Willie Parker. If his linemen can give him the holes, Parker will show the speed that made him a 1,000-yard back, and that will open up the field for Roethlisberger.

While Pittsburgh has passed early to set up the run in their previous three games, I look for them to try to overpower Seattle early and keep Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander off the field with their running game. I also expect them to let off the blitz early to feel out the Seahawks’ running game, because the West Coast offense that Seattle runs was built during an era of 3-4 defenses who used rushing linebackers like the Steelers do.

It comes down to the fourth quarter, and the strength of the Steelers offense prevails in a close, terrific game. Steelers 27, Seahawks 24

2006-02-02T11:48:00.000-06:00

The best story in college basketball

UConn and Duke will likely be the favorites when the NCAA basketball tournament kicks off in a little more than a month.

But it's unlikely there will be a more sentimental choice than West Virginia.

On Wednesday the governor of West Virginia called for the state's mines to halt operations until safety checks can be conducted on all. This after two more miners died in accidents, bringing the new year's total deaths in the state's mines to 16. It's already their worst year for mine fatalities in more than a decade.

Sports can't erase the pain of those who have lost their loved ones, but it can bring some positive presence to communities that need hope.

Nowhere needs it this year more than West Virginia, a state synonymous with coal production which is now developing a reputation for great college basketball. You might remember this team from a thrilling run in the tournament last year -- the double overtime upset of Wake Forest, the victory against Bob Knight and Texas Tech, then the heartbreaking overtime loss to Louisville, in which the Mountaineers ran out of gas and couldn't hang on to a 20-point lead.

This year West Virginia is ranked 11th and has already shown one of the greatest signs of tournament prowess -- the ability to win on the road. They have won at Oklahoma, Villanova and UCLA. They lead the nation's best conference, the Big East, at 7-0.

Last night, the Mountaineers improved to 16-4 overall with a one-point victory over Notre Dame. Following a three-game losing streak early in the season, West Virginia has won 14 of 15, the exception a loss to in-state rival Marshall last week.

The Mountaineers have the grit to match their state, led by the incomparable Kevin Pittsnogle, a native of Martinsburg, W.V., who might be the best outside shooting big man this side of Dirk Nowitzki. They have one of the nation's best starting fives and one of the most underrated coaches in John Beilein.

The Feb. 18 game with UConn in Morgantown will be the biggest regular-season game the school has played since the days of Jerry West.

There are dreams, and then there are dream scenarios that have a hope of coming true. We should all be rooting for this one.

DJ

2006-02-02T09:06:00.000-06:00

San Francisco: The Cutting Edge of PR

San Francisco sets its own pace among American cities. That apparently includes public relations practices and behavior among its sports teams.

See here.

DJ

2006-02-01T09:28:00.000-06:00

Correction

Thanks to those who read my article on Ben Roethlisberger over the past two days.

Much greater thanks to those who pointed out my errors. In describing the Raiders' and Giants' quarterback situations, I had my events in the wrong order and, thus, had my facts incorrect.

The Giants traded for Eli Manning and before signing Kurt Warner and before cutting Kerry Collins, though the latter was likely a foregone conclusion when Manning and Warner came on board.

When Oakland signed Collins, Rich Gannon was still the starter. In the third game of the season, Gannon went down with a neck injury and Collins became the starter. Again, likely to occur eventually but I still presented their quarterback situation at the time of the draft incorrectly.

Obviously there's no point in any of you coming to my blog if I'm not going to include the correct information. My apologies for the disservice, and I hope you return to the site soon.

Thanks,
DJ

2006-02-01T08:12:00.000-06:00

Cow-Bias sweeps North Texas

Before I begin my Super Bowl analysis later today, I wanted to comment on the epidemic that is swarming us here in the Dallas-Fort Worth area: allegations of Cow-Bias.

Seems everyone here is counting the days until Troy Aikman and Rayfield Wright become the latest Cowboys to be snubbed by the Hall of Fame voters. Michael Irvin is also on the ballot but consensus is that his recent trouble with the law will keep him out more than any negative perceptions of his team.

An article Sunday in the Dallas Morning News discussed the phenomenon, quoting a number of the voters. Sure enough, a few admit that there is an anti-Cowboy contingent and others vehemently deny it.

I know personally of one voter who openly detests the Cowboys because of an infamous playoff game (that's all the hint I'm going to give you, but I'm sure many of you can figure it out), and he's almost always an automatic no vote. You only need seven to keep a player out of the Hall.

There is also this: The NFL's All-Decade team of the 1970s includes only four players who aren't in the Hall of Fame. One is kicker Garo Yepremian (at a position in which only one man -- Jan Stenerud -- has been enshrined). Another is punter Ray Guy, at a position where no one has been enshrined solely for punting. The other two are former Cowboys Drew Pearson at wide receiver and Cliff Harris at safety.

Aikman will be a litmus test. He has won more Super Bowls (three) than anyone except Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana and Tom Brady. Along with Steve Young, he was the best quarterback of the 1990s, and Young played several seasons as a backup and only one won Super Bowl (though he had gaudier numbers in his best years) and waltzed into the Hall last year. He was a good leader and diplomatic with the press. If he doesn't get in, maybe there is something to this Cow-Bias.

Wright will be more difficult, because he represents a different era. He was a great blocker, and largely has been overlooked due to the fact that right tackles don't get the publicity that left tackles do. The momentum seems to favor the other senior candidate, John Madden, but Wright is a worthy candidate as well and has a chance to get in.

I detailed my choices last month, and I'm going to add Wright to the group of Aikman, Reggie White, Derrick Thomas and Harry Carson.

My prediction, however, is that White, Thurman Thomas and Madden join Aikman in the Class of 2006.

DJ

2006-01-30T20:35:00.000-06:00

Why Ben Fell

(Note that I've also posted a CORRECTION to this article.)

As Ben Roethlisberger enters the Super Bowl with a 26-4 career record and playing the best football of his career, it’s worth noting how lucky the Steelers were to get him with the 11^th pick of the 2004 NFL Draft.

This is not a case of Tom Brady drifting under the radar to the 6^th round of the draft, because he had been forced to battle for his starting job in college. Big Ben was a known commodity coming out of “the other” Miami, the one in Ohio. He possessed all the gifts – size, arm strength, mobility – necessary to be a great NFL quarterback.

He fell to the Steelers because of two reasons: 1) He came out as a junior, so he didn’t get to participate in the Senior Bowl events, which, among quarterbacks, helped catapult Philip Rivers above him and cemented Eli Manning as the top pick in the draft; 2) Teams picking before the Steelers for the most part had committed to a quarterback and weren’t going to use a top pick on the position when other needs were more apparent. Some of them might look back now and wish they'd done it differently.

Let’s take a quick look at how teams above him came to their decisions:

San Diego

QB Situation Then: Drew Brees was struggling and the team felt it needed a franchise quarterback, so it looked to Manning. Trouble was, Manning refused to play in San Diego, so the Chargers had to gamble that they could make a trade to get the maximum value for him. Fortunately, the New York Giants were willing.

The Pick: Manning, QB, Mississippi

QB Situation Now: After Manning went to New York, essentially for Rivers, Brees has improved tremendously. Maybe he needed more competition, but in any case, it’s now Rivers that is on the trading block.

Oakland

QB Situation Then: Kerry Collins was signed before the draft after revitalizing his career in New York. At 31, he was still young enough to be productive, and his arm fit Al Davis’ obsession with the long pass.

The Pick: Robert Gallery, OT, Iowa, who has started 31 of 32 games on the offensive line in two seasons. The Raiders gave up 45 sacks this year and struggled on offense despite adding Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan in the offseason.

QB Situation Now: Collins was benched for Marques Tuiasosopo at one point this season and the Raiders appear to be starting over at quarterback.

Arizona

QB Situation Then: Josh McCown appeared to be the quarterback of the future after showing some promise in 2003, and new coach Denny Green wasn’t going to pass up the chance to draft Larry Fitzgerald, his former ball boy in Minnesota.

The Pick: Fitzgerald, WR, Pittsburgh, who combined with Anquan Boldin to give the Cardinals a pair of 1,000-yard receivers, even if they weren’t sure who would throw them the ball.

QB Situation Now: Injuries have limited McCown’s performance. Kurt Warner was signed in the 2005 off-season to stabilize the position but was injured during the season. McCown and John Navarre split time the rest of the year. Another situation in flux.

New York

QB Situation Then: Collins was out, and his long-term successor was yet to be identified. Warner was signed before the 2004 season to keep the position warm.

The Pick: Rivers, QB, NC State, who has appeared in mop-up duty only since the trade to San Diego.

QB Situation Now: Rivers went to San Diego for Manning, who stepped in and took his lumps late in his rookie year. He improved this year but showed the ability to get rattled under pressure. Still, it’s likely the Giants have found their starter for the long-term.

Washington

QB Situation Then: With new coach Joe Gibbs, the Redskins signed veteran Mark Brunell to go with youngster Patrick Ramsey.

The Pick: Sean Taylor, S, Miami, who is one of the fiercest hitters in the game with his body and his saliva.

QB Situation Now: Ramsey fell out of favor with Gibbs, who seemed more comfortable with the veteran lefty Brunell. A game competitor, Brunell led his team to a five-game winning streak to finish the season and a victory over Tampa Bay in the playoffs, but the offense was hardly imposing. How much more does Brunell have in him? Will Ramsey recover?

Cleveland

QB Situation Then: Signed veteran Jeff Garcia before the draft to a long-term contract.

The Pick: Kellen Winslow, TE, Miami, who broke his leg in the second game last year and then destroyed his knee in a motorcycle accident in the 2005 offseason. He has tremendous potential and a great pedigree, but he faces an uphill battle to live up to them.

QB Situation Now: Garcia was nearly killed behind a bad offensive line last year. Trent Dilfer came in for this season but by the end of the year, new coach Romeo Crennel had handed the offense to promising rookie Charlie Frye.

Detroit

QB Situation Then: Joey Harrington, the third overall pick in the 2002 draft, had struggled but the Lions were still counting on him to succeed, especially with guru Steve Mariucci as the new coach.

The Pick: Roy Williams, WR, Texas, who has looked spectacular at times but is left to carry a sputtering offense full of promising careers gone astray.

QB Situation Now: Garcia was brought in for the 2005 season as the starter under his former coach Mariucci but broke his leg in the preseason, making Harrington the starter. Garcia and Harrington split time during the year and Harrington showed enough signs of life that he’ll probably get one more chance. He certainly has enough receivers.

Atlanta

QB Situation Then: Michael Vick had led the Falcons to the playoffs in 2002 but was recovering from a broken leg that had limited him to five games in 2003. Still, a singular talent and a former No. 1 overall pick who was sure to nail down the position for years to come.

The Pick: DeAngelo Hall, CB, Virginia Tech, who has blossomed into one of the better young corners in the NFC. He had six interceptions in 2005 and is headed to the Pro Bowl.

QB Situation Now: Vick’s numbers over the past two years: 29 touchdowns, 25 interceptions, 56 percent completions. The Falcons got to the NFC Championship Game in 2004, but Vick’s are hardly stellar numbers for a quarterback who has struggled to overcome his natural inclination to run. Matt Schaub, drafted in the third round in 2004, figures to get at least a look, to provide the Falcons with trade bait if nothing else.

Jacksonville

QB Situation Then: Byron Leftwich was entrenched in only his second year.

The Pick: Reggie Williams, WR, Washington, who has 62 catches in two years but only one touchdown for an offense that prefers to grind it out with the run.

QB Situation Now: Leftwich had solid numbers in each of the past two years and showed the ability to make big plays in clutch situations. Worth watching, though, is the broken leg that cost him the final five games of the 2005 regular season and led to a bad performance as the Jags lost to New England in the wild-card round.

Houston

QB Situation Then: David Carr, the first pick of the 2002 draft, would be given every chance to succeed. Given the Texans' offensive line, he’d need it.

The Pick: Dunta Robinson, CB, South Carolina, who has 175 tackles in two seasons, an alarming number for a cornerback. It means he’s getting picked on, the front seven can’t make plays, or, in this case, both.

QB Situation Now: Carr is likely to remain the Texans quarterback despite the temptation for them to draft hometown son Vince Young with the first pick in the 2006 draft. Give Carr a backfield with Reggie Bush and Domanick Davis, plus Andre Johnson at wideout, and he’ll have some weapons. But how can the Texans leave a player of Carr’s talent such a sitting duck (68 sacks last year) behind the worst offensive line in football?

Pittsburgh

QB Situation Then: Tommy Maddox had led the Steelers to the playoffs in 2002 and was penciled in as the 2004 starter despite a below-average season the previous year.

The Pick: Roethlisberger, QB, Miami (Ohio), who was forced into the starting role when Maddox went down in the second game of the 2004 season. He won 15 games in a row before succumbing to playoff pressure and the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game last year. Now he'll be the youngest quarterback besides Dan Marino to start a Super Bowl.

QB Situation Now: Quarterbacks are paid to win games, and Roethlisberger has a better winning percentage than any quarterback over the past two years, including Brady and Peyton Manning.

The point here is that teams face an age-old drafting problem: Do you take the best player available or do you take the best player that fits your need? Many of the players taken before Roethlisberger have already shown signs of becoming NFL stars, particularly Fitzgerald, Taylor, Roy Williams and Hall. But several of the teams who picked before the Steelers, particularly Oakland, Arizona, Cleveland and Detroit, have seen their quarterback situations get worse over time.

Bottom line: A handful of NFL teams can say they know who their quarterback will be five years from now (assuming no injury or contract dispute). None of the teams who picked before them can say so with as much certainty as the Steelers.

2006-01-30T10:26:00.000-06:00

Opening Day in January

Pitchers and catchers might not report to Spring Training for another month, but to a handful of baseball fans, Opening Day came on Friday.

Strat-O-Matic Baseball has been the subject of a cult following among many baseball fans, including this one. And a group of about 100 folks gathered on Friday outside its headquarters in Glen Head, N.Y., to be the first to receive the 2005 installment of the player cards and the computer version.

The game has existed since founder Hal Richman began creating and marketing the cards himself in 1962. His is a wonderful story of a man with a dream and the determination to see it through.

Hal still runs the company, with a small staff of folks to assist with the sales, marketing and design of the products, which include both cards-and-dice and computer versions of baseball, football, basketball and hockey games. And he is able to tap into a network of followers to help test and enhance the products. This is an American business success story as well as a testament to the love of sports, particularly baseball -- the original and most popular of Strat-O-Matic games.

I've written about this topic before. You can click here for a link to an article I had published in 2002 in the Minneapolis paper.

DJ

2006-01-26T19:17:00.000-06:00

How BIG a game is it?

Tell me you haven’t faced this scenario. Your significant other sees you sitting on the couch and she asks, “What’s on TV tonight?”

You say, “The big game.”

She says, “I thought the big game was on last night.”

You reply, “No, this is the REALLY big game.”

(I realize I’m stereotyping gender roles here, so forgive me.)

Until now, sports fans didn’t have a measure to quantify the importance of a game for viewing purposes. Obviously, you’re going to watch a game involving your favorite team or player whenever you can. But any decent sports fan knows there are some events that must be watched without exception.

Introducing the Must-View Index™ or MVI, an attempt to measure just how big a game is, so you can plan your evening or weekend around it.

The MVI has five components, which are the five key criteria one uses to determine whether to watch a game – independent of rooting interest.

Star Power – Does the game feature high-profile teams or star players, in terms of talent or viewing appeal? All-Star games are a natural for this. Seeing the top teams in each league would yield a high Star Power score. Any game featuring Kobe Bryant would score high in this category right now. And the 1999 U.S. women’s soccer team’s games would, too.

Historical Significance – Do you have a chance to see something extremely rare, such as an individual milestone or a team continuing its dominance? Obviously, some records can be broken on a moment’s notice, with no warning. But career and season plateaus can be predicted with some warning. Fans will want to watch the home run countdown of Barry Bonds this year, and they were intrigued by the Patriots’ chance to three-peat. And some games get sneaky high scores in this category. For example, Houston and San Francisco played on the final day of the season for the right to select Reggie Bush.

Rivalry – Does the game feature two teams with a history against each other? There are obvious rivalries: Yankees-Red Sox, Redskins-Cowboys. There are more recent rivalries: Patriots-Colts, Pistons-Pacers. And there are individual rivalries: players matching up against their former teams (any Lakers vs. Heat game qualifies), two top pitchers facing one another, etc. A rivalry usually means an intense, hard-fought game.

Competitiveness – Does the game have a chance to be competitive AND well-played? Only in those rare circumstances, usually those involving one’s favorite team, does a sports fan hope for a one-sided game. Those who watched the Rose Bowl or the Steelers-Colts Divisional Playoff realized they saw something incredible. Competitiveness also has the ability to rear its head when one least expects it, but again, there are ways to determine ahead of time if a game has a chance to be close. At the same time, just because a game is likely to be close doesn’t mean it’s worth your time. Two bad teams can play an evenly matched game, but one that’s aesthetically unwatchable.

Impact on Season – Does the game have high stakes for the participants? Baseball fans are going to tune in for the World Series because it’s the crescendo of the season. Ditto the Super Bowl, Stanley Cup, NBA Playoffs, March Madness and the college bowls. Well, most of the bowls. Some regular-season games take on more meaning, if a team’s playoff life is at stake, or if two of the top teams meet in the regular season for a possible tiebreaker or seeding advantage.

So, to calculate the MVI, give each game a score of 0 to 10 on each of the five measures. Average the scores, then multiply that result by 10 so there’s a 0-to-100 scale. Or you can just add up the numbers and double the result – you get the same score. (Hey, I’m looking for any ammunition I can get, and a 94 sounds a hell of a lot better than a 9.4 or a 47.)

Let’s give some examples from various extremes, starting with recent games.

The 2006 Rose Bowl would be an example of a must-watch game.

Star Power: 10 (You had the top three players in college football, including two Heisman winners in a row, and the top two teams. It can’t get any better.)
Historical Significance: 9 (USC was going for a third national championship and had won 34 in a row, putting them within hailing distance of Oklahoma’s record. Texas hadn’t won a national championship in 35 years. The BCS rarely worked before.)
Rivalry: 6 (The teams weren’t historical rivals, but they were two of the most storied programs in college football history.)
Competitiveness: 10 (Though USC was favored by most experts, the game was expected to be competitive.)
Impact on Season: 10 (It was for the national championship, with no arguments.)

Total: 90 (Average score is 9.0). You needed to watch this game. (And wasn’t it worth it?)

On the opposite end of the spectrum, how about the Dec. 24 regular season game between the Lions and Saints?

Star Power: 0 (A few decent players, but no really big names, and both teams were mostly dogging it by that point.)
Historical Significance: 1 (Maybe the last regular season home game the Saints would play outside Louisiana. Time will tell.)
Rivalry: 1 (Both teams play in domes, and Tom Dempsey of the Saints kicked the NFL’s longest field goal to beat the Lions back in 1970. That’s the extent of the rivalry.)
Competitiveness: 1 (Could have been close, but not likely to be well played.)
Impact on Season: 0 (Neither team had anything at stake. The only impact was that both teams were one game closer to being put out of their misery.)

Total: 6 (Average score is 0.6). You should have finished up your shopping instead, or cleaned your garage if your shopping was already done.

Scores are always subjective. You might find more star power in a game than I do, or think a game has a better chance to be more competitive. But that’s the point of the MVI – people have personal reasons for wanting to watch sporting events, above and beyond just following the teams they root for. The MVI just gives us a way to measure it.

But anything above 50 you should keep tabs on. Anything above 75 you should try to watch or TIVO. Anything at 90 or higher should be missed only to attend a wedding or funeral.

I was trying to think of a game that would get a perfect score, and the closest I came up with was the seventh game of the 2004 American League Championship Series. It had the star power of the two premier teams in the American League and two of baseball’s top franchises. It had the history of the Red Sox trying to continue a path toward ending their 86-year drought. The rivalry is the best in the sport. The teams were almost equal and the pitching matchup featured two solid, if unspectacular, starters. And obviously the winner was moving on to the World Series and the loser ending its season. That’s pretty much a 10 across the board.

I’ll use the MVI to evaluate some big games along the way, and feel free to use the tool to convince others that you really MUST watch the game tonight. I also welcome your thoughts on how, if at all, you might want to tweak this.

Because I’m all about manipulating numbers.

2006-01-25T19:24:00.000-06:00

Another plug: SportsPickle.com

For those of you who love The Onion and don't know about a sports-specific equivalent to it, check out SportsPickle.com.

It's the product of a fellow named DJ Gallo, who also writes for Page 2 on ESPN.com, and it's his satirical take on the sports world. He updates it every Wednesday, so after (or before) you take a gander at The Onion, surf over to SportsPickle.com for the latest in would-be sports news. I've posted a link to it on the left-hand side of this page. My favorite headline this week is: Shaq One-Ups Kobe by Putting on 82 Pounds. You can also click Who's Been Pickled on the home page of his site and see all of the back issues. Great stuff!

You can also check out DJ's columns on ESPN, where he writes mock headlines for various cities' sports sections and other witty commentary on a weekly column for Page 2.

So, with apologies to DJ, here's my sports headline of the night:

Artest agrees to trade after Kings announce move to Pluto

The Other DJ

2006-01-24T19:45:00.000-06:00

News we could see coming

The sports news of today provided several big stories, but none of these four should really surprise anyone.

Barry Bonds decides to pull out of the World Baseball Classic

Let the jokes and conspiracies begin about Bonds bailing because of the stricter drug policies at the World Baseball Classic, but this makes sense on another level. This is likely Bonds' last year. He's sure to pass Babe Ruth and move into second place on the all-time home run list, and if he's healthy -- and if pitchers throw the ball anywhere near the plate against him -- he's got a chance to hit the 48 homers needed to pass Hank Aaron. You can't blame Bonds for wanting to make the most of his at-bats in the games where those home runs count. It wouldn't be surprising to see other stars pull out between now and March. By the way, ESPN has a nice little site with an overview, rosters, and facts about the countries, found here.

Theo Epstein returns as Red Sox GM

This one made way too much sense. The original kid GM loves the Red Sox too much, he's too smart for the team to let him get away, and it was never made public why he walked away in the first place. Once no team snapped him up quickly -- Wouldn't you want the guy who built the first Red Sox World Championship in 86 years? -- it was only a matter of time before the sides came to their senses.

Ron Artest rejects a trade to the Kings

Actually, he didn't reject the trade for Peja Stojakovic. Artest spoke out that he didn't want to play for Sacramento, so the Kings cancelled the trade. Lots of ways I can go with this one. Are the fans in Arco Arena too laid back for Artest? No promises from the Kings for the days off to further his recording career? Not enough words to rhyme with Sacramento for his raps?

Then there's this quote from Ron: "It's not that I don't want to play there." OK, here's Media Training 101: When someone explicitly repeats that a published report is not true, it almost always is.

Meanwhile, now that the Kings have traded Peja, only to now take him back. They might want to see if Epstein has some free time for a consultation before he goes back to Boston. After all, Epstein deftly managed a similar situation when he had trades in place for Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez as part of the Alex Rodriguez acquisition-gone-awry. He handled it quite well, keeping Manny and letting Nomar pout before trading him for the final pieces of the championship puzzle.

Mario Lemieux retires

Nothing sarcastic to say about this news. Wayne Gretzky will always be The Great One. Lemieux then must be The Damn-Near-Great One. While he didn't have the ultimate impact on hockey that Gretzky did, Lemieux will always be remembered as perhaps the sport's greatest warrior.

He blended size and skill like no player before or since. He produced two Stanley Cups without having the overall talent of Gretzky's Edmonton teams. And he averaged just 0.04 points per game fewer than Gretzky.

He lifted a moribund franchise to two Stanley Cups, then rescued it from bankruptcy. He played his entire career with one team, avoiding the traveling circus that Gretzky had to endure as he made his way through Los Angeles, St. Louis and New York in the latter stages of his career. And finally, he battled through Hodgkin's disease, painful back injuries and now heart trouble before finally calling it quits, such was his commitment to the sport.

Lemieux is in the Hockey Hall of Fame because there isn't anything higher to honor him in the sport. Now as a last-ditch plan to build an arena in Pittsburgh teeters on the brink, Lemieux and his group have announced that they're selling the Penguins because Mario doesn't want to be the one to have to move or fold them.

The sport's most courageous shift is over.

2006-01-23T19:25:00.000-06:00

Team of Destiny ... Or Just Plain Lucky?

Talking with a friend about the Pittsburgh Steelers' heart-stopping victory over Indianapolis two weeks ago, we thought that such a dramatic victory made them seem like a team of destiny. Then my friend pointed out that the week after the Immaculate Reception in 1972, Pittsburgh lost to Miami. (Granted, it was the 17-0 Dolphins, who will be quick to remind you they're the only team ever to go unbeaten.) So I started thinking about how such miraculous teams fared later on in the playoffs.

Following is the result of a scientific study, in which I looked at teams since the Divisional Playoffs began in 1970 who escaped with a dramatic victory in that round, and how they fared the rest of the way. I'm focusing on divisional playoffs only, so you'll see no discussion of The Music City Miracle, Frank Reich, or The Fumble, and only tangential reference to The Drive. That's because teams that win the Divisional Playoff need to win two more games to win it all. Three games seems too many, and one game too few, to really evaluate them.

Team: 1971 Dolphins
What Happened: Beat Kansas City 27-24 in double overtime on Christmas Day, when Hall of Fame kicker Jan Stenerud missed two game-winning kicks.
What Happened Next: Shut out the Colts in the AFC Championship, lost to Dallas 24-3 in Super Bowl VI.

Team: 1972 Steelers
What Happened: Franco Harris caught a pass, and, you know, took it to the house, beating Oakland 13-7.
What Happened Next: Lost 21-17 to the aforementioned Dolphins in the AFC Championship.

Team: 1972 Cowboys
What Happened: Scored the last 17 points of the game to beat San Francisco 30-28.
What Happened Next: Hammered 26-3 by archrival Washington in the NFC Championship.

Team: 1974 Raiders
What Happened: Ken Stabler's dramatic "Sea of Hands" touchdown pass to Clarence Davis beat two-time defending champion Miami 28-26.
What Happened Next: Lost to the Steelers 24-13 in the AFC Championship.

Team: 1975 Cowboys
What Happened: Roger Staubach completed "Hail Mary" pass to Drew Pearson, who somehow wasn't called for pass interference, beating the Vikings 17-14.
What Happened Next: Crushed the Rams 37-7 before losing Super Bowl X to Pittsburgh.

Team: 1976 Raiders
What Happened: In a veeeeery suspicious call, New England's Sugar Bear Hamilton is called for roughing Ken Stabler on 4th down, giving the Raiders a second chance to pull out a 24-21 victory.
What Happened Next: Beat Pittsburgh 24-7 and Minnesota 32-14 to win Super Bowl XI.

Team: 1977 Raiders
What Happened: After tying game on field goal in final seconds, beat Baltimore 37-31 on Stabler-to-Dave Casper touchdown in double overtime.
What Happened Next: Lost to Denver 20-17 in AFC Championship.

Team: 1979 Rams
What Happened: Vince Ferragamo threw 50-yard touchdown pass to Billy Waddy with 2 minutes remaining to beat Dallas 21-19.
What Happened Next: Shut out Tampa Bay 9-0 and hung in Super Bowl XIV with Pittsburgh before losing 31-19.

Team: 1980 Raiders
What Happened: Mike Davis picked off Brian Sipe with the Browns in range for the winning field goal, preserving 14-12 victory.
What Happened Next: Became the first wild card team to win the Super Bowl, beating San Diego and Philadelphia.

Team: 1980 Cowboys
What Happened: Scored 20 fourth-quarter points to beat Atlanta 30-27.
What Happened Next: Lost to the Eagles in the NFC Championship, 20-7.

Team: 1981 Chargers
What Happened: Outlasted Miami 41-38 in overtime, with Kellen Winslow blocking a potential game-winning Dolphins field goal while battling heat exhaustion in the Orange Bowl.
What Happened Next: Went from the oven to the freezer, losing AFC Championship 27-7 to Cincinnati in minus-59 degree wind chills.

Team: 1983 49ers
What Happened: Detroit kicker Eddie Murray just missed a game-winning field goal, allowing the Niners to escape, 24-23.
What Happened Next: Rallied from 21-0 deficit to tie at Washington but lost 24-21 in NFC Championship.

Team: 1984 Steelers
What Happened: Eric Williams ran a John Elway interception back to the 2-yard line in the final minutes, setting up the winning touchdown in a 24-17 victory at Denver.
What Happened Next: Blown away by Dan Marino and the Dolphins, 45-28, in the AFC Championship.

Team: 1986 Browns
What Happened: Scored 10 points in the final five minutes to tie the Jets, won in double overtime on Mark Moseley's field goal, 23-20.
What Happened Next: Lost to the Broncos by the same score the next week, thanks to "The Drive."

Team: 1989 Browns
What Happened: Thurman Thomas dropped a potential game-winning touchdown, and Cleveland intercepts Jim Kelly on the next play to beat Buffalo, 34-30.
What Happened Next: Lost to Denver for the third time in four years, 37-21, in the AFC Championship.

Team: 1989 Rams
What Happened: Flipper Anderson hauled in Jim Everett's winning touchdown, then ran straight to the locker room in a 19-13 overtime victory against the Giants.
What Happened Next: Lost 30-3 at San Francisco in NFC Championship.

Team: 1991 Broncos
What Happened: John Elway led an 87-yard drive in the final two minutes, setting up David Treadwell's winning field goal in a 26-24 win over Houston.
What Happened Next: Missed three field goals, lost Elway to injury and gave up a defensive touchdown, yet still only lost 10-7 at Buffalo in the AFC Championship.

Team: 1994 Chargers
What Happened: Rallied from 21-6 down, beat Miami 22-21 when Pete Stoyanovich missed a game-winning field goal.
What Happened Next: Stunned Pittsburgh 17-13 in AFC Championship. Run over by the 49ers in Super Bowl XXIX, 49-26.

Team: 1995 Colts
What Happened: Upset top-seeded Kansas City, who missed three field goals and committed four turnovers in a 10-7 defeat.
What Happened Next: Lost dramatic AFC Championship at Pittsburgh, 20-16, when final pass bounced off receiver Aaron Bailey's chest.

Team: 1999 Buccaneers
What Happened: Rallied from 13-0 down to beat Washington 14-13, aided by a bad snap on the potential game-winning field goal.
What Happened Next: Lost 11-6 at St. Louis in NFC Championship. Tony Dungy has hated instant replay ever since.

Team: 2001 Patriots
What Happened: Tom Brady didn't fumble while tucking the ball away. Adam Vinatieri kicked two dramatic field goals to beat Oakland in the snow, 16-13.
What Happened Next: Upset Pittsburgh and then St. Louis to win Super Bowl XXXVI.

Team: 2002 Titans
What Happened: On his third try for a game-winning field goal, Joe Nedney connected to beat the Steelers, 34-31.
What Happened Next: Lost to Oakland 41-24 in AFC Championship.

Team: 2003 Eagles
What Happened: Completed 4th-and-26 play in game-tying drive. Beat Green Bay in overtime, 20-17 following horrendous interception by Brett Favre.
What Happened Next: Lost to Carolina 14-3 in NFC Championship.

Team: 2003 Panthers
What Happened: Steve Smith took a Jake Delhomme pass 69 yards for the winning touchdown in double overtime to beat St. Louis 29-23.
What Happened Next: Beat the Eagles before losing to the Patriots on another Vinatieri game-winning kick.

Team: 2004 Steelers
What Happened: Jets kicker Doug Brien missed twice to win the game. Jeff Reed connected to beat New York 20-17.
What Happened Next: Steamrolled by the Patriots machine 41-27 in AFC Championship.

Final Tally:

Of the 25 teams cited, 17 lost in the conference championship game. Five won their next game but lost the Super Bowl. Only three (the 1976 Raiders, 1980 Raiders and 2001 Patriots) won the Super Bowl.

Granted, most of the teams that won their thrillers lost to better teams in the next game, but this proves that to win the Super Bowl, you have to more than just lucky. You also have to be good. The great teams through the years (the Steelers, 49ers and Cowboys dynasties, the 1985 Bears) have dominated their opponents.

The 2005 Steelers have already gone farther than many of their predecessors who escaped in the second round of the playoffs. We'll see if they can join an even more elite group.

DJ

2006-01-23T09:33:00.000-06:00

Switching to hoops

With two weeks before the Super Bowl, we'll take a break from football commentary and move to basketball, given that there are two good stories there.

Big, Big, Big East

All three remaining college unbeatens lost on Saturday, two of them losing to Big East schools -- Georgetown over Duke and St. John's over Pittsburgh. These results and the rest of the play this season points to the Big East this year being the best conference ever.

When a school like St. John's, which has struggled for the past few years, beats 2005 Final Four participant Louisville and unbeaten Pitt in back-to-back games, you're talking about a deep conference. Georgetown has also struggled in recent years but appears to be making a return under the son of their greatest coach.

Add to the mix UConn, which is a perennial Final Four contender and in line to be No. 1 in the new polls; Villanova, a Top 10 team despite a strong inside presence; West Virginia, which came within a whisker of the Final Four last year; and newcomers Marquette, DePaul and Cincinnati along with Louisville. It has legendary coaches -- Pitino, Boeheim, Calhoun -- along with up-and-comers like Jay Wright and John Thompson and underrated coaches like John Beilein and Tom Crean.

The Big East has been and always will be a basketball conference, and expanding to 16 teams after the defections of football schools Miami, Virginia Tech and BC was a brilliant move.

Kobe's 81

Kobe Bryant ran Shaquille O'Neal out of Los Angeles so that he could be "the man." Well, officially, he is.

Earlier this year, Bryant scored 62 points in three quarters against Dallas. Last night, he went for 81 against Toronto. He's topped 40 points 12 times this year and is almost certain to be the NBA's leading scorer.

Watching him play, even in highlights, it's obvious Bryant has that Jordan-esque quality that even when you set your defense to stop him, he can still beat you whenever he wants. It's now clear that he is the heir apparent to the greatest player who ever lived.

Now that Bryant has made peace with Shaquille O'Neal and lured Phil Jackson back into Jeannie Buss' life, performances like last night will bring spotlight to Kobe's talent, rather than his propensity for selfishness and ball-hogging.

Will he be able to win a championship all by himself? That remains to be seen. But Bryant has earned the right to try.

DJ

2006-01-22T20:54:00.000-06:00

Super Matchup: Steelers vs. Seahawks

A short post tonight, since I’m desperately trying to get a hold of Mike Tice to buy some Super Bowl tickets.

This matchup might not have the same luster as previous Super Bowls, but anyone who watched the domination by Pittsburgh and Seattle today has to admit that the two best teams are playing the Super Bowl.

Both the Steelers and Seahawks carved up the opposing defense, played turnover-free football, and made big plays on defense. They bring veteran coaches and the two hottest quarterbacks in the NFL to Detroit.

Pittsburgh had some trouble corralling Jake Plummer, but they forced him into the kinds of mistakes that have haunted him in the past. Ben Roethlisberger picked on the Denver secondary, making the Broncos pay for their attempts to focus on the Steelers’ running game. It will be interesting to see what Seattle tries to do on defense, given that Roethlisberger has now shown three weeks in a row that he will beat you if given the chance. Pittsburgh’s running game only averaged 2.7 yards per carry Sunday, yet they controlled the game offensively. Steelers’ teams couldn’t win in the past without running the ball well.

Seattle won with the legs of Shaun Alexander, who ran well and was not tentative despite his concussion last week, and the arm of Matt Hasselbeck, who has taken his game to another level in the postseason after his most successful regular season. Carolina had no running game, with its top three backs out of action, and the Seahawks did what almost no one else could this year – shut down Steve Smith.

Both Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher have been to the big game before. In fact, one of them was there three years in a row, when Cowher’s Steelers lost to Dallas in 1996 before Holmgren’s Packers went to consecutive games in 1997 (beating New England) and 1998 (losing to Denver). It's an offensive tactician against a defensive ringleader.

Looking at this game now, with two weeks of hype in front of us, it looks dead even. Pittsburgh hasn’t seen a running back in Alexander’s league in the postseason, but Seattle hasn’t faced a team with as many offensive weapons. There will certainly be something to watch in between the commercials.

2006-01-20T09:59:00.000-06:00

Conference Championship Picks

Since I’ve analyzed the teams already, I’ll make these picks short and sweet. Two interesting tidbits about the games:

1. Unlike last week, which had four rematches from the regular season, the teams playing this week are largely unfamiliar with each other, having played only once each since 2001. Carolina and Seattle met on Oct. 31, 2004, with the Seahawks winning at home, 23-17. The injury-riddled Panthers were in the midst of six-game losing streak. Similar circumstances surrounded Pittsburgh and Denver’s last meeting, on Oct. 12, 2003. The Broncos pulled out a 17-14 victory in Denver, handing the Steelers their third loss in a five-game losing streak, again largely a result of injuries. Though the Steelers went 6-10 that year, their position allowed them to draft Ben Roethlisberger with the 11th pick of the subsequent draft.

2. In the past seven years, one Conference Championship game has gone to the home team and one has gone to the road team. The last road sweep was 1998 (Denver over Pittsburgh and Green Bay over San Francisco). The last home sweep was 1997 (New England over Jacksonville and Green Bay over Carolina).

Pittsburgh at Denver – The teams are remarkably similar, ranking in the top five in the NFL in both rushing offense and rushing defense. Both the Steelers and Broncos like to put heat on the quarterback and use their athleticism at linebacker and safety. Both have fierce offensive lines and smart wide receivers. And both have quarterbacks with something to prove. Roethlisberger, despite exceptional games the last two weeks, needs to erase a horrible performance in last season’s AFC Championship. Jake Plummer needs to play like the quarterback that he hasn’t been consistently in nine seasons, the guy whom Bill Walsh once compared to Joe Montana. Big Ben has shown signs that he’s ready to take the next step and become one of the league’s elite quarterbacks. Plummer will still be a guy who hasn’t lived up to his potential, until he wins a game like this one. Steelers 17, Broncos 10

Carolina at Seattle – The Panthers might be getting more support than any recent road playoff team not named New England. They have an experienced team and one that has played very well on the road under John Fox. I just keep coming back to one thing: Seattle is a different place to play. Unlike New York and Chicago, where the fans’ spirit seemed to be broken when the Panthers took early leads, Seattle fans haven’t been to the playoffs enough to give up early. The Seahawks, after a few seasons of modest success, have taken a big jump this year and look ready to take the final step. Shaun Alexander’s health is a question, but so is Julius Peppers’. Seattle showed last week that they can win without Alexander against a good defense. Carolina hasn’t had to prove they can win without a healthy Peppers. Nick Goings replaces DeShaun Foster, and he’s a talented running back, but I’m betting he won’t be the threat that keeps the Seahawks from keying on Steve Smith. Seahawks 27, Panthers 20

DJ

2006-01-19T19:55:00.000-06:00

Three reasons why the Seahawks will win

We conclude this week with the Seahawks, and why they will beat Carolina:

1. Matt Hasselbeck can outplay Jake Delhomme at quarterback. Despite Delhomme’s experience and talent, Hasselbeck has established himself as a first-tier quarterback this year. His has been a logical progression at quarterback. He spent two years as a backup, earned the chance to be a starter, struggled at first, but has really blossomed in the past three years. He’s helped Seattle to the playoffs in three consecutive seasons, and this year he’s shown signs of taking the next step forward as a leader. Last week against a good defense, with his MVP running back out of commission, Hasselbeck put the Seahawks on his back and led them to victory. Though Alexander will play this week, no one knows how effective he’ll be, so expect coach Mike Holmgren to put the game on his quarterback’s right arm. Hasselbeck has shown this year that he’s up to the task of winning a game. He should be again on Sunday.

2. Like Denver, home-field advantage means more in Seattle. The Seahawks are 8-0 at home, for many reasons. They have an outstanding team. They have a supportive crowd. Also, Seattle brings an element that most stadiums don’t have – rain. We’ve hardly seen a drop of rain in months in Dallas, because Seattle has stolen it all. Odds are good that rain will fall on Sunday, making the field a little slower. That favors Seattle for two additional reasons: 1) Alexander, if healthy, outclasses Nick Goings at running back. 2) A sloppy track might be the only thing that can slow down Steve Smith. Weather that enhances the Seahawks’ primary advantage, and neutralizes Carolina’s, naturally favors the home team. However, even if the weather is good, Qwest Field presents a daunting task for any visiting team. The end zone seats are so close to the field that the fans can see pass interference penalties better than the referees. The crowd is so loud that the Giants had 11 false-start penalties in a game there this year. And the Panthers will have to cross three time zones to get there.

3. Seattle’s defense has played big when it matters most. People are finally starting to appreciate the Seahawks’ offense, thanks to Hasselbeck’s emergence and Alexander’s MVP season. The defense is still building its own reputation, but this year, the Seahawks’ defense has stepped up when it most needed to. They helped turn a certain loss to Dallas into a win in regulation. They stiffened and held the Giants to three field-goal attempts in an overtime game when New York was driving, and triumphed after Giants’ kicker Jay Feely missed all three times. They hung a shutout on the Eagles in Philadelphia (without McNabb and Owens, but any road shutout is a good one), scoring three times in the game. They held Tennessee on two fourth-and-short situations in the fourth quarter to avoid an upset on the road. It’s a defense that can be had at times – witness tough road wins against the Titans, Rams and 49ers that turned into shootouts. But while Seattle’s defense won’t be confused with the Bears (or the Panthers, for that matter), it has developed a knack for making big plays when the game is on the line. Playing at home, that should be more than enough.

On Friday, the picks for the Conference Championships.